Quick Scout: The new way West Virginia basketball has found success under Bob Huggins
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 16 West Virginia at No. 3 Kansas, 3 p.m. Central, Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 11-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 18
Point spread: Kansas by 9 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Transition defense: Though West Virginia is about average at allowing fast-break attempts to opponents, the team is second-best nationally adjusted shooting percentage defense in those scenarios.
▪ Offensive rebounding: The Mountaineers are seventh in O-board percentage, with two players (Oscar Tshiebwe, Derek Culver) both ranking top 150 nationally in the individual version of the stat.
▪ Rim protection: West Virginia — ranked 56th in defensive block percentage — has held opponents to 42% two-point shooting this season (15th nationally).
3 Weaknesses
▪ Three-point shooting: West Virginia barely shoots threes, and even when it does, it’s had below-average accuracy on those attempts.
▪ Transition offense: The Mountaineers run more often offensively than an average NCAA team but have been poor in these situations, ranking 278th in adjusted shooting percentage during the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.
▪ Fouling: This weakness isn’t nearly as glaring as some of coach Bob Huggins’ past teams, but West Virginia is still 277th when it comes to limiting opponents’ free-throw attempts.
Player to Watch
6-foot-9 forward Oscar Tshiebwe (Pronounced SHEEB-way, No. 34)
Plus: Nation’s top offensive rebounder
Plus: Excellent shot-blocker; West Virginia Athletics site lists him as having 7-foot-5 wingspan
Plus: Gets fouled often and is passable free-throw shooter (64%)
Plus: Efficient overall player who takes on large offensive role
Minus: Does not shoot threes; he and Culver have attempted none this season
Minus: Appears raw at times, partly because he only started playing basketball in 2014
Minus: Has struggled some to pass out of the post
Prediction
West Virginia has been excellent defensively, though probably not in the way that many KU fans would expect based on Huggins’ history.
The Mountaineers do pressure defensively and are decent at creating steals. They’re nowhere close to their earlier “Press Virginia” style, though, and instead have been most effective by protecting the rim and keeping opponents’ shooting percentages low.
KU obviously has a big advantage here of Allen Fieldhouse. Not only is there a better chance that three-pointers will go down, but it’s also more likely that the Jayhawks will be able to draw whistles against the most hack-happy team in the Big 12.
The even bigger concern for West Virginia has to be offensively. The Mountaineers struggle to shoot from about everywhere, relying heavily on second-chance points and their own free throw attempts to fill in the scoring gaps.
That should be tough against KU. One of the Jayhawks’ biggest strengths defensively has been rebounding, and the team also has done a good job of avoiding fouls. Add in the setting, and West Virginia shouldn’t walk in Saturday expecting to get 25-plus free throw attempts.
The 9 1/2-point spread might seem high for a top-20 matchup at first blush, but I actually like KU to pull away by more than that given the circumstances.
Home court is likely to play up here. If KU’s defense can feed off the crowd for energy to force additional turnovers — while also keeping West Virginia away from the free throw line — this has the makings of a slopfest offensively for the Mountaineers.
Kansas 74, West Virginia 58
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
West Virginia’s defensive weakness is on the wing, which leaves the possibility open for Ochai Agbaji to have a big offensive game. Though other teammates like Marcus Garrett are better equipped to take advantage of this matchup at the free throw line, Agbaji’s best bet is from the perimeter, where he should get at least a few open attempts Saturday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 67, Stanford 64 (Actual: KU 72-56)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 8-4
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 107-80-3
This story was originally published January 4, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
