What are KU basketball’s odds to win the Big 12? Here’s what two projection sites say

Kansas basketball no longer has “The Streak” of 14 straight Big 12 titles after falling short last season. Still, the 2019-20 Jayhawks — by all accounts — have one of the nation’s best teams while currently ranked third in The Associated Press poll.

So ahead of Saturday’s Big 12 opener against West Virginia, what are the odds that KU is able to win at least a share of its 15th conference title in coach Bill Self’s 17 seasons?

Two different projection systems are in agreement: Pretty good.

Start with Ken Pomeroy’s numbers, as he released his conference simulations in an article earlier this week. KU, in there, is at 75% to win at least a share of the Big 12 crown, followed by Baylor (20%) and West Virginia (13%).

Another site is even more bullish about the Jayhawks’ chances.

Bart Torvik’s system, available at the site BartTorvik.com, currently has KU as the top team in the nation with a sizable lead over No. 2 Ohio State.

It makes sense, then, that his numbers are a bit more optimistic for the Jayhawks, putting their odds at 79%.

Odds to win at least a share of the Big 12 title (via BartTorvik.com)

There are a few factors outside KU’s control to consider here. The Big 12 — at this point — is down some from a season ago when it was Pomeroy’s top-ranked conference. This year, the league is second nationally, well behind the Big Ten and with the Big East right behind in third.

Self, when asked about his take on the Big 12 race, said he believed it was “wide open” simply based on the number of high-quality victories the Big 12 had accrued. That included West Virginia’s triumph over Ohio State, Baylor taking down Villanova and Texas Tech defeating Louisville.

“There’s been some teams that certainly have better wins than what Kansas has had,” Self said. “ ... There’s a lot of teams already with high ceilings.”

My own unscientific Twitter poll seems to indicate that KU fan confidence hasn’t been shaken much — if at all — after KU’s third-place Big 12 finish last year.

I’ve asked the question, “What would you say are KU’s odds to win at least a share of the Big 12 title this season?” ahead of KU’s league opener each of the last two years.

“Eighty-one to 100 percent” was the top response both times, with 63% of respondents choosing that option in 2020 (through the first 1,500 votes) compared to 59% a season ago.

So in case anyone was wondering ... one down year does not seem to have changed expectations much around Lawrence.

KU fans appear to be right about this, though: There are reasons to like the Self’s chances of getting a 15th Big 12 ring in 2020.

Jesse Newell

The Kansas City Star

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Jesse Newell covered the Chiefs for The Star until August 2025. He won an EPPY for best sports blog and previously was named top beat writer in his circulation by AP’s Sports Editors. His interest in sports analytics comes from his math teacher father, who handed out rulers to Trick-or-Treaters each year.