Quick Scout: This Milwaukee weakness could be a problem vs. KU at Allen Fieldhouse
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: Milwaukee vs. No. 2 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 5-4
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 237
Point spread: Kansas by 26.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Defensive pressure: Milwaukee is 62nd in defensive turnover rate, but it gets there in an interesting way; the team is 304th in steal rate, yet leads the nation in forcing “non-steal turnovers”: violations like charges, travels and offensive fouls.
▪ Rebounding ... both ends: The Panthers have good size for a mid-major school, and they rank top 110 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages.
▪ Drawing fouls: Milwaukee relies heavily on getting to the line for scoring, ranking 78th in frequency of free throw attempts.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Fouling: Milwaukee is 347th (out of 353 Division I teams) when it comes to putting opponents at the foul line. That’s typically not an ideal characteristic for a team to have when facing KU at Allen Fieldhouse.
▪ Scoring inside: The Panthers are 310th in two-point percentage while not getting the shot frequency at the rim you’d expect from a team that has played a weak schedule so far.
▪ Free throw shooting: Though Milwaukee gets to the line often, it’s hurt there by subpar accuracy (310th nationally), especially from the team’s big men.
Player to Watch
6-foot-2 guard Te’Jon Lucas (No. 3)
Plus: Illinois transfer
Plus: Excels at drawing fouls and is 72% free throw shooter
Plus: Capable three-point shooter
Plus: Team’s best at creating steals
Minus: Turnover prone
Minus: Inefficient two-point shooter that has tendency to attempt too many mid-range shots
Prediction
In a strange way, KU’s previous opponent Colorado and Milwaukee share some of the same relative strengths and weaknesses.
Both enter as OK three-point shooting teams that have struggled to score at the rim. The two also have been solid on the glass and decent with two-point defense while forcing a high number of non-steal turnovers defensively.
Milwaukee, as you’d expect, has quite a few more issues added onto that general profile. The high number of fouls has to be a huge concern while going against KU players Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike, and the lack of success on two-point shots isn’t likely to magically get better against the Jayhawks’ rangy defenders inside.
The Panthers also haven’t been a great passing team, and usually that’s what’s needed to free up open three-point attempts — the one type of efficient play KU’s defense will surrender if you work hard enough for it.
Having said all this ... 26 points is a difficult number to cover, especially when these blowouts can lead to KU bench players being relied upon to maintain large leads in the final minutes (Colorado, for instance, ended last game on a 7-0 run during garbage time).
I’ll still say the Jayhawks get it done (barely). Expect lots of KU free throws, and for Milwaukee to struggle with the Jayhawks’ length and athleticism when trying to score inside.
Kansas 83, Milwaukee 53
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
Udoka Azubuike might practice a few extra free throws before this one. Basically all of Milwaukee’s big men are hack-happy, meaning Azubuike should have a chance for double-digit free throw attempts if he stays in long enough. On the other end, the Panthers have struggled going against shot-blockers inside, and Azubuike certainly qualifies as that. This, on paper at least, seems like an ideal matchup for the Jayhawks center.
Last game prediction: Kansas 78, Colorado 61 (Actual: KU 72-58)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 6-2
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 105-78-3
