Quick Scout: Colorado should challenge this Kansas Jayhawks basketball strength
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 20 Colorado vs. No. 2 Kansas, 6 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 7-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 33
Point spread: Kansas by 9 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Rim protection: Colorado has the nation’s ninth-best two-point percentage defense and also is 12th when it comes to field goal percentage against at the rim.
▪ Defensive pressure: The Buffaloes are 19th in defensive turnover percentage while only 146th in steal rate. One reason for this quirk: Coach Tad Boyle loves for his team to take charges.
▪ Rebounding ... both ends: Colorado is 33th in Team Rankings’ total rebounding rate stat, though the Buffaloes especially excel on the defensive glass where they rank top 10.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Transition offense: Colorado’s adjusted shooting percentage on fast breaks ranks in the bottom 30 nationally — and actually is worse than the team’s shooting in half-court settings, which is a rarity in basketball.
▪ Scoring inside: The Buffaloes are 304th in two-point percentage and 335th in field goal percentage at the rim — though that latter number could be affected by a home official scorer who might be classifying too many shots as “layups” in the box score.
▪ Carelessness: Colorado is below average when it comes to turnovers, with opponents typically coming away with a high number of steals.
Player to Watch
6-foot-7 guard/forward Tyler Bey (No. 1)
Plus: Currently ranked sixth in KenPom’s national player of the year rating
Plus: Top defensive rebounder in the nation
Plus: Does great job drawing fouls and is excellent free throw shooter
Plus: Flashes athleticism and quickness defensively; ranks top 70 nationally in both steal and block rate
Plus: Great on offensive glass
Minus: Not as good of a finisher at the rim as you’d expect
Minus: Can be turnover prone; had five, for example, in last game vs. Loyola Marymount
Prediction
Colorado faces an interesting matchup in Kansas based on what it does best.
The Buffaloes playing great half-court defense — and also have made it difficult on interior-focused teams, as we know the Jayhawks are.
Yet, Colorado does this is a unique way. It allows shots at the the rim but challenges those attempts well. Meanwhile, it also cuts down driving lanes by stepping in for offensive fouls.
For KU, though, Allen Fieldhouse could be a big help here. The Jayhawks always seem to get a few more transition opportunities in their home gym, and combine that with a few more fouls drawn and potentially the team feeling better about itself from three-point range, and I definitely could see the Jayhawks finding some way to score against the Buffaloes’ elite defense.
On offense, Colorado’s combination of poor inside shooting and turnovers has been toxic. The Buffaloes shoot threes pretty well but rarely attempt them, though that might have to change Saturday against a KU defense that has allowed lots of outside shots to almost everyone.
I actually really like the Jayhawks in this spot to pull away. KU coach Bill Self was wise to give his team an extra few days’ rest after its three-game trip to Maui, so fatigue shouldn’t be an issue, and the Jayhawks should shoot better from three than they showed in their two previous games away from the mainland.
Colorado’s hope has to be to slow the pace down while getting hot from the outside. It’s certainly possible, but not something I see as the likely scenario, especially if the Jayhawks defense can bring defensive intensity against a team that will turn it over if pressured.
Kansas 78, Colorado 61
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
This feels like a potential bounceback scoring game from Ochai Agbaji. One reason: He should go some against Shane Gatling, with Colorado’s 6-2 guard grading out poorly on defense according to Synergy thus far. Agbaji also should be likelier to have more confidence in his three-point shot following an extra week of practice time.
Last game prediction: Kansas 75, Dayton 64 (Actual: KU 90-84, OT)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 5-2
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 104-78-3
