Quick Scout: Here’s the one can’t-miss advantage KU has against BYU
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: Kansas vs. BYU, 9:30 p.m. Central time, Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, Hawaii
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 4-2
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 68
Point spread: Kansas by 11.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Transition defense: BYU does an excellent job of getting back, ranking second nationally in points per possession allowed on fast breaks (via Synergy).
▪ Ball security: BYU plays offense at a slow pace but still gets a shot most possessions, ranking 96th in offensive turnover percentage.
▪ Three-point defense: Coach Mark Pope — at both Utah Valley and now at his first season with BYU — has made it a priority to limit opponent’s three-point attempts, and so far the Cougars are 12th-best at restricting outside tries.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Rim protection: BYU is 347th in defensive block rate, as no player on the team has more than two rejections.
▪ Transition offense: The Cougars rank 321st when it comes to frequency of shots in transition, and despite being choosy there, they are only 124th when it comes to adjusted shooting percentage on those fast breaks.
▪ Rebounding ... both ends: This partly appears to be a coaching decision, as deserting the offensive glass is one of the best ways to ensure a team can get back to help its transition defense. The Cougars are slightly below average when it comes to the defensive glass too, though.
Player to Watch
6-foot-5 guard Jake Toolson (No. 5)
Plus: Was WAC conference player of the year last season as member of Utah Valley
Plus: One of team’s two go-to guys offensively along with fellow guard TJ Haws
Plus: Outstanding three-point shooter
Plus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “excellent” overall defender
Minus: Struggles to finish at rim; just 6-for-16 (38%) on shots there
Minus: Though he got to the line often at Utah Valley, that skill has not carried over in six games with BYU this season where he’s averaged two free throws per game
Prediction
Pope is a coach after my heart.
He has talked often about his love for analytics, and has taken the extra step in his first year with BYU to hire an analytics specialist who previously worked for the Los Angeles Lakers.
A quick glance shows BYU to be a numbers-savvy team.
The Cougars follow the data with many of their strategies. They limit opponents’ threes (typically one of the college game’s most efficient shots) and they also eschew some offensive rebounds and potential free throw attempts in an effort to focus on transition defense, ball security and shot selection.
This is a veteran team as well. BYU ranks 15th in KenPom’s “experience” measure, though that might not even tell the whole story, as 13 players on the roster have completed Mormon missions, which means KU will be playing some guys who are either 23 or 24 years of age.
The Jayhawks’ main advantage — for a second straight game — is athleticism. Even if difficult against BYU, KU needs to try to push the pace as much as possible while turning this into a game that is decided by speed and strength instead of shooting.
My feeling is the Vegas line is about correct here. I like BYU to remain competitive while slowing the pace down, but I also think KU will eventually be able to have success inside, whether that’s Udoka Azubuike going against a lack of rim protection or the Jayhawks’ loosening up the Cougars’ transition defense.
Asked to pick a side against the spread ... I’ll say BYU — with a good three-point shooting team and Lahaina Civic Center’s kind rims — will make enough outside attempts to cover the 11-point line.
Kansas 80, BYU 72
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: BYU
Hawk to Rock
Synergy’s logs rate Haws as a “poor” overall defender who has especially struggled in isolation situations. This appears to be an ideal matchup, then, for KU point guard Devon Dotson, who should have plenty of opportunities to create for himself and others off the drive, even in half-court settings.
Last game prediction: Kansas 102, Chaminade 70 (Actual: KU 93-63)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 4-1
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 103-77-3
