Quick scout: The biggest concern for KU in its road game against Texas Tech
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 12 Kansas at No. 14 Texas Tech, 7 p.m., United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, Texas
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 21-5
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 9
Point spread: Texas Tech by 5 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Creating havoc: Texas Tech ranks third nationally in defensive turnover percentage and has mostly maintained those strong numbers through conference play.
▪ Interior defense: The Red Raiders have the fourth-best two-point percentage defense in the nation while also ranking seventh in block rate.
▪ Drawing contact: Texas Tech has been the second-best team in Big 12 play at drawing fouls, while also posting an impressive 75 percent free-throw percentage during that time.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Rebounding ... both ends: Texas Tech hovers right around NCAA average in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, and that number also is probably a bit worse than it looks considering the team played a weak non-conference schedule.
▪ Fouling: The Red Raiders have the second-worst defensive free-throw rate in Big 12 play, and that tendency actually has been a big issue for them at home recently; the last four road teams have shot 26, 24, 41 and 28 free throws in Lubbock.
▪ Carelessness: Texas Tech will give it away offensively, ranking 211th nationally in turnover percentage.
3 Players to Watch
6-foot-6 guard Jarrett Culver (No. 23)
Plus: First in KenPom’s Big 12 player of the year ranking
Plus: Unquestioned go-to guy offensively
Plus: Strong passer
Plus: Excellent creator and finisher at rim
Plus: Gets fouled often
Minus: Not shy about taking threes, but is only an average shooter there
6-foot-2 guard Davide Moretti (No. 25)
Plus: Super-versatile sharpshooter
Plus: Excellent from three-point range and can make shots off dribble
Plus: Sneaky player who draws lots of fouls even without getting to rim much
Plus: 91-percent free throw shooter
Minus: Not as aggressive as he should be offensively given his efficiency
6-foot-10 forward Tariq Owens (No. 11)
Plus: Elite shot-blocker
Plus: Thrives on offensive glass
Plus: Finishes well at rim
Plus: Draws contact often and is 77-percent free-throw shooter
Minus: Mostly a role player offensively; reliant on others or offensive rebounds for his good looks
Minus: Not a three-point shooter (6-for-25 on season)
Prediction
Your pick in this game likely depends on your world view.
Do you lump this Kansas team in with the last 14 that have won Big 12 titles? If so ... it’s one of those “backs against the wall, no one believed in us” games where coach Bill Self always seems to have his team ready to play. Both KU and Texas Tech also had a week off to prepare, which could lead to an argument that coaching and scheme will play a bigger role in this game than one with a short turnaround.
The harsh reality for KU, though, is there’s a whole lot to overcome.
Texas Tech is playing its best basketball of the year, winning its last four Big 12 contests by an average of 22 points. The Red Raiders sneakily have one of the best home-court advantages in the nation, and they’re also able to more freely play to their aggressive defensive style (with lots of charges taken) at home than they are on the road.
KU has played better in its last three games too, but the Jayhawks still have not been able to solve one huge issue away from Allen Fieldhouse: turnovers. Giveaways cost KU in road losses to Iowa State, West Virginia, Texas and Kansas State, and they also were a main reason for the team’s blown lead against TCU in an eventual overtime victory.
The bottom line: Texas Tech, over the course of the season, has proven itself to be a slightly better team than KU statistically. It has the home-court edge here, and also a defensive strength (forcing turnovers) that has been KU’s biggest road bugaboo.
Though it’s hard to count out Self in one of these types of games, I still think there’s good reason to think the Red Raiders will win this one going way.
Texas Tech 71, Kansas 60
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Texas Tech
Hawk to Rock
The pick here is Devon Dotson ... if he can avoid turnovers. Texas Tech allows lots of threes and also fouls often, which lines up directly with two of Dotson’s offensive strengths. Last year, when the Jayhawks pulled off an upset in Lubbock, they did so thanks to a huge individual effort from their point guard. That likely will be needed again Saturday if KU wants a similar result.
Last game prediction: Kansas 86, West Virginia 63 (Actual: KU 78-53)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 15-11
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 92-73-3
This story was originally published February 23, 2019 at 8:44 AM.
