Quick scout: Here’s the biggest worry for this KU team against K-State
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 13 Kansas at Kansas State, 8 p.m., Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 16-5
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 40
Point spread: Kansas State by 2 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Defensive rebouding: Kansas State is third nationally in defensive rebounding rate and the top team in the Big 12 during league play.
▪ Creating havoc: The Wildcats rank 22nd in defensive turnover percentage, and that number has actually improved since conference play began.
▪ Getting back: K-State is ninth nationally when it comes to limiting opponents’ transition attempts, with teams shooting a below-average percentage even when they do get shots up on fast breaks.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Shooting: This is an issue everywhere; K-State is 225th in two-point percentage, 263rd in three-point percentage and 323rd in free-throw accuracy.
▪ Three-point defense: The Wildcats allow lots of three-point shots, with 44 percent of opponents’ attempts coming from behind the arc.
▪ Transition offense: K-State is 321st when it comes to getting transition attempts and 292nd in adjusted shooting percentage on fast-break opportunities.
3 Players to Watch
6-foot-10 forward Dean Wade (No. 32)
Plus: Easily team’s best offensive option
Plus: Outstanding finisher at the rim
Plus: Solid passer
Plus: Good rebounder, both ends
Plus: Gets to line often and is 79 percent free-throw shooter
Minus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “average” defender who struggles to get out to shooters on the perimeter
Minus: Can make threes but doesn’t shoot enough of them
6-foot-3 guard Barry Brown (No. 5)
Plus: Takes on biggest offensive role for K-State
Plus: Good finisher at the rim for his size
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Synergy ranks him as “excellent” overall defender
Minus: Shoots too many mid-range jumpers, which hurts his efficiency
Minus: Only a 32 percent career three-point shooter
6-foot-5 forward Xavier Sneed (No. 20)
Plus: Good defensive rebounder for his size
Plus: Not afraid to take threes and is about NCAA average there for his career
Plus: Like Brown, he’s rated as an “excellent” defender by Synergy
Minus: Below-average shooter at rim, in mid-range and at free-throw line
Minus: Only a role player offensively
Prediction
There are a lot of moving parts here, which makes a prediction for this Clash on the Kaw particularly difficult.
K-State’s predictive rankings aren’t super-impressive, but they also aren’t taking into account that Wade was hurt for six games in the middle. With him, the Wildcats turn from a bad offensive team to a competent one, which makes a huge difference given how well the team’s defense has played.
There might also be more optimism for KU here after coach Bill Self altered his offense last game. The Jayhawks put Dedric Lawson more on the perimeter and hesitated less often on three-point shots, which led to an efficient offensive day against Texas Tech’s elite defense.
When I look at this matchup for KU, I see two potential positives along with a glaring concern.
The Jayhawks’ defense is most vulnerable against teams that shoot threes well, and K-State is not usually that. The Wildcats aren’t good in transition and are often stagnant in the half-court, making this an opponent KU’s defense could potentially frustrate quite a bit.
Self also might want Devonté Graham to give the pregame talk again, because KU will likely be well-suited for a second straight game to fire up a bunch of threes. Guarding the perimeter is K-State’s defensive flaw, and putting up those shots is a lot better than turning it over, which happens often when trying to look for a perfect shot against the Wildcats’ swarming defense.
That has to be KU’s biggest worry. The Jayhawks, in road games, have given it away a bunch, as five of their six away games have resulted in a turnover rate above their season average. That tendency combined with Bramlage Coliseum could make for a toxic mix.
There are also the concerns with KU closing out games on the road. That might be part of what has moved a Vegas line that opened as K-State favored by one into a 2 1/2-point spread.
In the end, I’ll give a slight edge to KU, believing the new five-out offensive look will help the team eliminate a few turnovers it’s had in past road games while trying to force it inside.
It likely won’t be easy, though, for either team to score in this one.
Kansas 59, Kansas State 57
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
Quentin Grimes looked much better and more comfortable against Texas Tech, even if his stat line didn’t jump out with six points and four assists. KU needs him to be the aggressive version of himself Tuesday, though, as open threes for him in the half-court should be considered successful possessions. Grimes has put up double figures just once in his last eight games, but I’ll say he gets there against K-State in a low-scoring, low-possession game.
Last game prediction: Kansas 73, Texas Tech 64 (Actual: KU 79-63)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 12-10
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 89-72-3
This story was originally published February 5, 2019 at 11:39 AM.
