Quick scout: Will Bill Self’s crazy top-10 streak last past Kentucky?
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 9 Kansas at No. 8 Kentucky, 5 p.m. Central, Rupp Arena, Lexington, Ky.
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 15-3
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 9
Point spread: Kentucky by 6.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Close shots: Kentucky ranks eighth nationally in field goal percentage at the rim, helped by the fact it also is eighth in offensive rebounding percentage.
▪ Rim protection: The Wildcats’ defensive strength is inside, as they have the 14th-best block rate and are 23rd nationally in two-point percentage defense.
▪ The line: Kentucky does a great job creating contact (17th in free throw rate) while also shooting an excellent team percentage on free throws (75 percent).
3 Weaknesses
▪ Carelessness: Kentucky’s inside-out style does lead to some turnovers, with the team ranking below NCAA average in that facet.
▪ Three-point defense: The best way to score on the Wildcats has been threes, with the team surrendering an above-average number of outside attempts this season.
▪ Three-point shooting: Kentucky can make threes (36 percent accuracy as a team) but rarely attempts them, ranking 338th in three-point frequency.
3 Players to Watch
6-foot-8 forward P.J. Washington (No. 25)
Plus: Fourth in KenPom’s SEC player of the year standings
Plus: Efficient offensive player who gets fouled often
Plus: Team’s best shot-blocker
Plus: Strong rebounder, both ends
Minus: “Average” overall defender according to Synergy’s logs who can struggle to get out to spot-up shooters
6-foot-5 guard Tyler Herro (No. 14)
Plus: Recruited as a shooter; attempts most threes on team
Plus: Good finisher at the rim for his size
Plus: Outstanding free throw shooter
Minus: Rarely gets to the line
Minus: Only a so-so defender, via Synergy, who has issues in pick-and-roll and iso situations
6-foot-8 forward Reid Travis (No. 22)
Plus: Scored 29 points and had 22 free throw attempts as Stanford forward at Allen Fieldhouse two years ago
Plus: One of nation’s best at getting to line and is good free throw shooter
Plus: Strong finisher at the rim
Minus: Poor mid-range shooter
Minus: Not a huge three-point threat (5-for-17 there this season)
Prediction
For a second straight game, I’m surprised by the Vegas line.
Kentucky is favored by six when most predictive sites (like KenPom and Bart Torvik) are closer to the 4 1/2 range. Beyond that, I see a few reasons to like KU more in this particular matchup.
For one, the Jayhawks’ biggest defensive weakness — defending three-pointers — shouldn’t be much of a factor Saturday. Kentucky will be force-feeding it inside, and while the Jayhawks don’t have the rim protectors and depth there as they’ve had in years past, they still won’t face the risk of getting beat three points at a time as often.
Also worth noting: One of KU’s best defensive strengths is avoiding fouls. That might not always play out at Rupp Arena on Saturday, but it still could limit the impact of what has been one of Kentucky’s top offensive weapons.
Offensively, KU obviously could struggle to score with its four-guard lineup, though the Jayhawks have actually done a decent job against shot-blocking teams so far. Both Tennessee and Baylor have top-10 teams in terms of block rate, and KU managed to score efficiently inside against each while posting above-average offensive marks.
Then there’s the Bill Self factor. These are the games where his teams typically thrive, as the Jayhawks have won 13 straight regular-season games against top-10 opponents — the longest current streak in the nation. That includes the game in Lexington two years ago where KU, as a seven-point underdog, defeated John Calipari’s Wildcats, 79-73.
KU has had major issues closing games on the road, and Kentucky is playing better in recent weeks than it has all season. I still like KU in this spot, though, and with a decent three-point shooting day could see the Jayhawks pulling off the upset.
Kansas 74, Kentucky 72
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
It’s simple against Kentucky when predicting an opponent MVP: Pick the best outside shooter. Lagerald Vick should have open spot-ups Saturday, and those are ones he doesn’t often miss.
Last game prediction: Kansas 73, Iowa State 72 (Actual: KU 80-76)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 10-9
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 87-71-3
This story was originally published January 26, 2019 at 10:17 AM.
