Quick scout: Trying to make sense of the KU-Iowa State line
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: Kansas vs. Iowa State, 8 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 14-4
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 14
Point spread: Kansas by 5 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Ball security: Iowa State is ninth nationally in offensive turnover percentage and also has the best mark in Big 12 play.
▪ Foul avoidance: The Cyclones rank sixth in defensive free-throw rate, which means they could be impacted less by calls at Allen Fieldhouse than many opponents because of their non-fouling ways.
▪ Transition offense: Iowa State does a good job of running and also ranks 10th in adjusted shooting percentage on those opportunities.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Creating contact: Iowa State does not play a physical brand of offense, ranking 247th in offensive free-throw rate.
▪ Rebounding ... both ends: The Cyclones have been the Big 12’s worst offensive and defensive rebounding team during Big 12 play.
▪ Three-point defense: Much like KU, Iowa State will allow teams to shoot threes, ranking 289th in three-point prevention.
3 Players to Watch
6-foot-6 guard Marial Shayok (No. 3)
Plus: Third in KenPom’s Big 12 player of the year standings
Plus: Outstanding finisher at the rim
Plus: Has made 48 percent of threes in Big 12 play
Plus: 85 percent free-throw shooter
Minus: Doesn’t get to the line often
6-foot-5 guard Tyrese Haliburton (No. 22)
Plus: Super-efficient offensive player
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Good and creative passer
Plus: Selective three-point shooter, but has good accuracy there (46 percent)
Minus: Passive offensive player who rarely shoots
6-foot-5 guard Nick Weiler-Babb (No. 1)
Plus: Good passer
Plus: Like Haliburton, selective with threes, but makes them when he’s open (41 percent overall)
Plus: Great finisher at the rim
Minus: Settles for too many mid-range shots
Minus: Synergy’s logs classify him as “average” defender who struggles to get out to perimeter shooters
Prediction
I’m surprised by this line.
Most predictive sites, like KenPom and Torvik, have KU as a 4-point favorite. It stands to reason, then, that because the line is up to 5 1/2, sharp bettors in Vegas might be seeing a trend of road teams on a quick Big Monday turnaround (like Iowa State) under-performing their expectations over time.
The other stat in KU’s favor: Under Self, the Jayhawks are 27-0 in home Big Monday games. Maybe the line discrepancy is as simple as that.
I see a lot of reasons, though, to like Iowa State in this spot.
The Cyclones, more than any other team, seem to be to have a “Fieldhouse-proof” sort of style. They don’t foul often, which limits the impact of KU’s home court. They don’t turn it over, which should keep KU out of transition. They also aren’t afraid to shoot a lot of threes, and it’s obvious by now that the Jayhawks’ biggest defensive weakness is getting out to the perimeter.
Iowa State’s switchable defensive lineup also made it difficult on KU in the first meeting, and the Jayhawks don’t have the luxury of going to mismatch Udoka Azubuike, making it more difficult to see a clear path to offensive efficiency.
Add in KU’s recent inability to close out games, and my strong lean is toward Iowa State to cover.
Will KU win, though? It’s Allen Fieldhouse on Big Monday, so the Jayhawks surviving another close one seems like a possible result.
Kansas 73, Iowa State 72
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Iowa State
Hawk to Rock
When Iowa State shot-blocker Cameron Lard is not in the game, Dedric Lawson needs to be the focal point of the offense. He’s the type of player that gives Iowa State’s defense fits, both as someone who can be successful with an in-between game (like Perry Ellis) while also taking advantage of the Cyclones’ struggles on the defensive glass. He’ll have to be a good passer when doubled too, dealing with that pressure better than he did when he had six turnovers in the first matchup. There’s the potential here for a huge statistical night ... if Lawson plays up to his ability.
Last game prediction: Kansas 77, West Virginia 70 (Actual: WVU 65-64)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 9-9
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 86-71-3
