Quick scout: The pick for KU-Villanova
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 17 Villanova vs. No. 1 Kansas, 11 a.m. central, Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 8-3
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 20
Point spread: KU by 8.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Shot selection: Only 19 percent of Villlanova’s shots are mid-range jumpers — statistically the worst shot in basketball. That percentage is 55th-best nationally.
▪ Rebounding ... both ends: The Wildcats rank top 80 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, with coach Jay Wright assembling a roster that ranks 40th in average height.
▪ Three-point defense: Villanova ranks 83rd when it comes to limiting opponent three-point attempts.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Turnovers: The Wildcats rank 169th in offensive turnover percentage this season, which is a huge change from last year when the team was 14th.
▪ Transition offense: This Villanova roster has struggled to run, ranking below average in transition opportunities and also 276th in shooting accuracy on fast breaks.
▪ Creating havoc: These Wildcats are not one of Wright’s best pressuring teams, ranking 212th in defensive turnover percentage and 270th in steal rate.
3 Players to Watch
6-foot-8 forward Eric Paschall (No. 4)
Plus: Was Vilanova’s best player vs. KU last year with 24-point, 10-for-11 performance
Plus: Creates contact often and is good free throw shooter
Plus: Can stretch floor with threes
Plus: One of team’s best transition players
Minus: Has struggled in limited mid-range attempts
Minus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “average” defender who especially struggles to guard spot-up shooters
6-foot-3 guard Phil Booth (No. 3)
Plus: Takes on largest offensive role for Villanova
Plus: Team’s best passer
Plus: Above-average three-point shooter
Plus: Will draw fouls
Minus: Like Paschall, he’s only an “average” defender via Synergy’s logs
Minus: Struggles to score in transition
6-foot-4 guard Joe Cremo (No. 24)
Plus: Albany graduate transfer who was considering KU in summer
Plus: Strong outside shooter
Plus: Capable passer
Minus: Has limited offensive role
Minus: Doesn’t create much off the dribble
Prediction
Wright’s offensive philosophy with Villanova is both advanced and simple: He wants to maximize the number of spot-up attempts his team gets, which statistically is the best shot one can get in a half-court setting.
So the Wildcats, in an unprecedented way at the Power Five level, are firing away. Villanova has attempted 52 percent of its shots from three-point range, and though the team is only hovering around NCAA average when it comes to accuracy (34 percent), it’s worked out because those attempts space the floor and also are still actually helping the Wildcats from a point-per-possession perspective.
So ... here we go. Villanova is third nationally when it comes to attempting threes, while KU is 337th when it comes to limiting them from opponents. There will be threes Saturday.
That’s often scary for KU, and it’s definitely that way here. KU does have a couple of things going for it — the Jayhawks have defended the three better the last two games and also should be more equipped to guard the perimeter with a four-guard lineup — but the point remains: If a three goes up, much of KU’s defensive success will be out of its control.
The Jayhawks need to win in the margins. With a pumped-up Allen Fieldhouse, extra defensive pressure and steals would be beneficial against a turnover-prone Villanova team. The Wildcats also haven’t been great at limiting close shots from opponents, which is something KU should be able to exploit as well as any team with coach Bill Self’s extended “get-a-post-man-an-open-shot” playbook.
I still don’t have a good feel for KU in this one. The Jayhawks haven’t been efficient offensively the last two games without Udoka Azubuike, and based on what’s happened so far this season, it seems likely they won’t put enough defensive emphasis on the outside shots that can hurt them most.
Seems like another close Allen Fieldhouse game to me.
Kansas 79, Villanova 77
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Villanova
Hawk to Rock
The player who likely needs to take advantage of his matchup most is Marcus Garrett. He’ll likely have Paschall guarding him at the 4, which means Garrett should have open three-point attempts that he needs to both attempt and make. Also, defensively, he’s KU’s best at creating steals, and those should be there for the taking against an often-careless Villanova team.
Last game prediction: Kansas 85, New Mexico State 75 (Actual: KU 63-60)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 4-4
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 81-66-3
This story was originally published December 15, 2018 at 7:27 AM.
