Quick scout: Will Louisiana’s greatest strength come through against KU?
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Friday’s game: Kansas vs. Louisiana, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 1-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 124
Point spread: KU by 21 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Offensive rebounding: Louisiana has ranked in the top 60 in O-board percentage in each of the past five seasons and was sixth nationally last year.
▪ Drawing contact: Another offensive staple of coach Bob Marlin’s teams has been getting to the line often. Louisiana’s offensive free throw rate the last three seasons has been 46th, 26th and 58th.
▪ Three-point defense: Louisiana historically has done a great job “running teams off the line,” ranking in the top 100 in restricting opponents’ threes over each of the last six years.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Transition defense: Louisiana ranked 300th nationally last season when it came to allowing opponent fast-break opportunities, while allowing an above-average shooting percentage in those scenarios.
▪ Size: The Ragin’ Cajuns have just one rotation player taller than 6 foot 6, while ranking 270th in KenPom’s average height measure.
▪ Depth: Marlin has not gone to reserves much this season, as his team is 314th in percentage of bench minutes played.
3 Players to Watch
6-foot-6 forward JaKeenan Gant (No. 23)
Plus: Mizzou transfer who is reigning Sun Belt defensive player of the year
Plus: Strong shot-blocker
Plus: Go-to guy offensively
Plus: Good finisher at the rim and rarely takes inefficient mid-range shots
Minus: Doesn’t get to free throw line often
Minus: Will attempt threes but has been below-average shooter there for his career
6-foot-2 guard Marcus Stroman (No. 35)
Plus: One of nation’s top passers
Plus: Was elite last season at getting to free throw line
Plus: Above average foul shooter
Plus: Good scorer at the rim in transition
Minus: Poor three-point shooter who doesn’t attempt many
Minus: Extremely turnover prone
6-foot-6 guard Malik Marquetti (No. 1)
Plus: Strong three-point shooter
Plus: Synergy’s logs ranked him as “excellent” overall defender last season
Minus: Only a role player offensively
Minus: Doesn’t draw contact often
Prediction
At first glance, this appears to be a much more favorable matchup for KU compared to its last game against Vermont.
Louisiana thrives with offensive rebounding ... which just happens to go counter to one of KU’s greatest strengths (defensive rebounding). One would expect the Jayhawks to be fine there.
The Ragin’ Cajuns also are historically not great with transition defense, which often can turn from a big problem to a huge one for opponents playing at Allen Fieldhouse.
Unlike Vermont, Louisiana doesn’t appear to have the gunners to challenge KU’s not-always-great perimeter defense. And banking on foul calls as a huge underdog isn’t typically the best style to have while playing at KU’s home gym either.
Depth could be an issue for the Ragin’ Cajuns, and so could size. Limiting three-point attempts also would have been better against last year’s KU team ... but probably doesn’t matter as much against this more-balanced Jayhawks squad.
This feels like a game that could get away from Louisiana early.
Kansas 98, Louisiana 67
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
It’s wise to go with KU’s best transition player in this spot, and so far, that’s been Quentin Grimes. The freshman has made 4 of his 5 fast-break shots this year and also has shown good basketball IQ in those situations to find teammates as well. Look for a big night from him.
Last game prediction: Kansas 85, Vermont 70 (Actual: KU 84-68)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 1-1
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 78-63-3
Jesse Newell
Jesse Newell covers University of Kansas athletics for The Star.
