Quick scout: Vermont likely to have this three-step gameplan against KU

Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.

Monday’s game: Kansas vs. Vermont, 8 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence

TV: ESPN2

Opponent’s record: 1-0

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 123

Point spread: KU by 21 1/2.

All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.

3 Strengths

▪ Ball security: Vermont had just seven giveaways in its opener against Boston and has had a low turnover rate each of the previous two seasons.

▪ Defensive rebounding: The Catamounts had the 11th-best defensive rebounding percentage in the nation last year and had a solid game in that aspect against Boston too.

▪ Three-point shooting: Much like KU, Vermont has had its own revolution offensively in recent years while becoming much more open to shooting additional threes. The Catamounts hit 40 percent of their threes in 2017-18, while 48 percent of their shots in their first game this season came from the outside.

3 Weaknesses

▪ Offensive rebounding: Vermont has been a bottom-half offensive rebounding team in three of the last four seasons, meaning this is likely a coaching concession made so the team can get back to play better transition defense.

▪ Creating havoc: Like Michigan State, Vermont (346th in steal rate last season) is not a team that pressures out much defensively.

▪ Interior defense: Small sample alert yes, but in Vermont’s first game, it allowed Boston to take 49 percent of its shots at the rim. The Catamounts also were only average when it came to two-point defensive field goal percentage last season as well.

3 Players to Watch

6-foot-6 forward Anthony Lamb (No. 3)

Plus: Takes on huge offensive role

Plus: Does good job of drawing contact and is excellent free throw shooter

Plus: Strong defensive rebounder for his size

Plus: Doesn’t turn it over often

Minus: Synergy’s logs listed him as “poor” defender last year who especially struggled in isolations and post-ups

Minus: Only a so-so finisher on shots at the rim

6-foot-3 guard Ernie Duncan (No. 20)

Plus: High-volume, accurate three-point shooter

Plus: Rarely takes inefficient mid-range jumpers

Plus: Excellent free throw shooter

Plus: Rarely turns it over

Minus: Doesn’t draw contact often; mostly a shot-up shooter

Minus: Not much of a threat to score inside the three-point line outside of transition

6-foot-1 guard Stef Smith (No. 0)

Plus: Strong three-point shooter

Plus: Good defensive rebounder for his size

Minus: Well-below-average finisher at the rim

Minus: Was turnover prone last season

Prediction

These types of games are tough to predict.

Going in, Vermont’s strategy would seem to be simple: Slow the pace way down (the Catamounts do this already as part of their normal offense), chuck up a bunch of threes against a KU team that surrenders a lot of them, then sprint back in transition to not allow the Jayhawks to win this one purely on athleticism.

All those goals seem attainable. So ... trying to figure out if Vermont will hit those threes becomes the big question.

The Catamounts struggled in their first game (8-for-29 from three) but were a 40-percent outside shooting team last year. If given the choice, I’d trust last season’s number more, even with the team losing a top shooter to graduation.

For KU, this won’t be complicated: Run as much as you can, then try to overwhelm a poor Vermont interior defense by working to get shots at the rim off entry passes and drives. The Jayhawks also won’t have to worry about having their offensive weakness (turnovers) being exploited too much against a risk-averse defense.

So I feel good about saying KU will have efficient offense. But will Vermont? The Catamounts, I believe, will get high-quality three-point shots and not just desperation ones, so I’ll say they’ll be more accurate from deep than they were in their opener.

Kansas 85, Vermont 70

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Vermont

Hawk to Rock

Dedric Lawson struggled some offensively against a physical team in Michigan State. This matchup should be much better, as Lawson won’t be hounded by stronger players and should be able to use his diverse skillset to free himself for shots inside. If Lamb in particular guards him, that should be a mismatch that KU looks to take advantage of early and often.

Last game prediction: Kansas 75, Michigan State 67 (Actual: KU 92-87)

2018-19 record vs. spread: 0-1

Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 77-63-3

Jesse Newell

Jesse Newell covers University of Kansas athletics for The Star.