Quick scout: 3 things I think I think about KU, with a Michigan State prediction

By Jesse Newell

Updated November 6, 2018 12:08 PM

Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.

Tuesday’s game: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 10 Michigan State, 6 p.m., Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

TV: ESPN

Opponent’s record: 0-0

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 13

Point spread: KU by 5 1/2.

All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.

3 Strengths

▪ Rim protection: Michigan State had the top two-point percentage defense in the nation last season, and while Jaren Jackson has moved to the NBA, Nick Ward is back to provide a strong shot-blocking presence in the paint.

▪ Rebounding ... both ends: This has been a staple for Tom Izzo-coached teams, and last year was no exception, with the Spartans ranking fourth nationally in offensive rebounding and 76th in defensive rebounding.

▪ Transition defense: Michigan State pulls the rare double of being able to crash the offensive glass hard while also doing a good job of limiting opponents’ fast-break opportunities and success.

3 Weaknesses

▪ Turnovers: Michigan State led the nation in percentage of assisted field goals, but that came at a cost. The team was a bottom-half NCAA turnover team, which limited the Spartans’ offensive upside.

▪ Creating havoc: Izzo had his team play a super-conservative man defense last season because of its personnel, as Michigan State ranked 341st (out of 351 teams) in defensive turnover percentage.

▪ Shot selection? This is picking nits, but Michigan State shot an above-average number of mid-range jumpers last season when it had the 13th-best three-point percentage nationally. In other words ... there doesn’t appear to be a bright green light for perimeter shooters if it’s early in the shot clock.

3 Players to Watch

6-foot-1 guard Cassius Winston (No. 5)

Plus: 50 percent three-point shooter last season with frequent attempts

Plus: Elite passer; ranked second nationally in assist rate

Plus: Outstanding free throw shooter

Plus: Good defensive rebounder for his size

Minus: Below-average finisher at rim and in transition

Minus: One of Michigan State’s worst defensive players, according to Synergy, who especially struggled to get out to spot-up shooters

6-foot-9 forward Nick Ward (No. 44)

Plus: Nation’s best offensive rebounder a year ago

Plus: Does great job of drawing fouls inside

Plus: Excellent at finishing shots at rim

Plus: Strong shot-blocker

Minus: Not a three-point shooter; has attempted one in two seasons

Minus: Only a 62-percent career free throw shooter

6-foot-5 guard Joshua Langford (No. 1)

Plus: Well-above-average three-point shooter

Plus: Not afraid to take on large offensive load

Plus: Doesn’t turn it over often

Minus: Shoots too many inefficient mid-range pull-ups

Minus: Struggles to defend in isolation situations

Minus: Rarely gets to free-throw line

Prediction

Perhaps it’s best to start with what I think we know about KU after two exhibition games.

I’m confident the Jayhawks have a good interior defense with strong defensive rebounding. More than likely, teams will find the most offensive success by putting up threes against KU, and while Michigan State has three good shooters (Winston, Langford and Matt McQuaid), it attempted a below-average number of those tries last season. Maybe that will change Tuesday.

I’m fairly sure KU’s defensive pressure will be much better than last year. That could definitely serve the Jayhawks well in this game, as Michigan State proved to be turnover prone with much of the same roster last year.

I believe KU will be limited offensively. The Jayhawks’ two-big offense isn’t clicking right just yet, with the team having the most success last game while running its four-guard offense from the past two seasons. If KU relies heavily on that, Michigan State will have to be sound to cover KU’s downhill drivers and ball-screeners in space, but the Spartans also will likely see a Jayhawks team that will have to rely on threes more than Self might want given his team’s unproven shooting.

In my mind, though, this seems like a game where Michigan State will struggle more to score against KU than vice versa. KU coach Bill Self should have his team ready for Izzo’s common actions, while the Jayhawks’ best “stuff” should be their free-flowing offense that will be difficult to fully prepare for.

That, along with a potential turnover disparity, is enough to push me toward a KU win and cover.

Kansas 75, Michigan State 67

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas

Hawk to Rock

Izzo used the words “monster” and “redwood tree” when describing KU’s Udoka Azubuike, and usually, coaches know best which players might pose the biggest problems for their teams. In this case, Izzo appears to be worried not only about KU’s big man but also about the Spartans’ own frontcourt depth, which is a bit shaky at this early point in the season. If Azubuike is able to keep his focus and composure, he should be in line for a strong opening game.

Last game prediction: Villanova 84, Kansas 75 (Actual: Villanova 95-79)

2017-18 record vs. spread: 19-19

Last four seasons’ record vs. spread: 77-62-3