KU Jayhawks Q&A: The best hoops noncon games, QBs and some thoughts on Adidas

Time for another Kansas Jayhawks Q&A.

Thanks for the questions, and please follow my Facebook page if you haven’t yet.

I mean this honestly: I’m not sure.

When it comes to quarterback evaluation, Kansas coach David Beaty and offensive coordinator Doug Meacham — the ones making the actual decision — have experience doing this. They understand more about the nuances and techniques and personality qualities needed to make a quarterback successful.

Sometimes, it’s best to know what you don’t know. And in this case, I’m no quarterback expert and can’t pretend to guess at which factor is most important.

I will say this, though: I think KU’s coaches are getting into a dangerous spot if they haven’t chosen their starter yet. The reason for that simply has to do with human nature and the potential to be affected too much by recency bias.

FiveThirtyEight’s Neil Payne wrote a good piece that relates to what I’m talking about titled, “When Spring Training Matters.” The main premise of the story, which looks at whether Spring Training stats matter in baseball, cites previous studies done before stating that those one-month numbers should affect our thoughts on how players will perform in the regular season “but only slightly, and only after a particularly strong or weak performance.”

Just like baseball, it would stand to reason that college football coaches shouldn’t put too much stock in a small, recent sample. When it comes to the KU quarterback race, Miles Kendrick, Carter Stanley and Peyton Bender have all been with the program since January, meaning there’s been plenty of time for evaluation to figure out who is best among those three.

If the coaches haven’t made a choice yet, they risk making their decision on a whim rather than quality information. And even if the race is close, it seems that tie could be broken easier by examining previous knowledge instead of hoping to glean something new from a limited-sample, one-day scrimmage.

We’ll see what happens. Maybe KU’s coaches have chosen their guy and haven’t announced yet. Maybe Beaty’s refusal to narrow the candidates last week was done for strategic reasons.

If the competition still is actually open, though, I can’t think that would be a good thing for KU football — both for the players involved and also the coaches being paid to get these decisions right.

Since we don’t have the conference schedule yet, rank KU’s non-con slate. What gets top billing: Villanova at home for a revenge game, Champions Classic, at Rupp? Possible matchup with Tennessee... KU always has a tough schedule but this year is another killer.

-Emailer Ross Fortier

A list! Let’s rank the top five KU noncon games, in reverse order:

5. At Arizona State (Dec. 22)

This should be KU’s toughest road game before the new year, and one would guess the Jayhawks will have plenty of motivation to play better defense than they did in last year’s loss at Allen Fieldhouse.

4. vs. Tennessee (Nov. 23)

KU would have to beat Marquette and Tennessee would have to take care of Louisville, but if that happens, this could be a potential top-10 matchup in the finals of the Preseason NIT in Brooklyn, N.Y.

3. vs. Michigan State (Nov. 6)

The Champions Classic becoming the start of the college basketball season should only put more focus on this one, which will match up hall-of-fame coaches and also blue-blood programs.

2. vs. Villanova (Dec. 15)

Though the two teams will be vastly different from a year ago, you can bet the Allen Fieldhouse crowd will be full throat for this rematch.

1. At Kentucky (Jan. 26)

This looks, at this point, like THE game of the college basketball regular season? Cal vs. Self, and maybe No. 1 vs. No. 2? This easily tops the list.

Colleague Blair Kerkhoff wrote an excellent story on Spectrum Sports’ past and potential future back in June, and I’d encourage folks to read that to better understand the situation.

Nothing has changed since then, so look for the Jayhawk Network on Spectrum this season ... and perhaps in a different location in future years.

First, I hope everyone was following along with Gary Bedore’s stories about McCormack playing in Europe over the past week. McCormack performed well statistically, with the obvious caveat that we have no idea how good the competition was in those games.

After the last game, I thought Gary was able to get some revealing quotes from coach Kerry Keating. In part, Keating said this about McCormack:

“It’s a big development year for him in my opinion if all (of KU’s bigs) are healthy and with a year of coaching and Hudy (Andrea, strength coach), he could be a monster.”

Keating was honest in his evaluation of McCormack. He said he’s a good rebounder but could be better with his touch around the rim and has also sometimes shied away from contact inside.

McCormack’s situation, to me, is almost exactly that of former KU forward Thomas Robinson in his freshman year. Robinson was highly thought of, yet in 2009-10, he was playing behind Cole Aldrich and the Morris twins, who had already established themselves as top players.

Robinson averaged 7.2 minutes per game that year. He fouled a bunch and turned it over too much, but he also showed flashes of the player he would become.

McCormack could see a similar situation his first year. Dedric Lawson, Udoka Azubuike and Silvio De Sousa are more established, meaning McCormack should enter as the fourth-best big man option at best.

For KU coach Bill Self, though ... it’ll be great to have depth. McCormack should be able to play with a free mind and full energy whenever he’s able to get onto the court.

And he’ll likely also push those guys ahead of him, who will know that their playing time isn’t guaranteed.

Probably not, and there are likely a couple reasons for that.

First, let’s catch everyone up. KU athletic director Jeff Long spoke Friday about the status of the proposed Adidas contract extension, saying the athletic department was still processing the deal.

“We’re working through that,” Long said. “We’re very optimistic that we’ll finalize everything soon.”

I can only speak as an outsider here. I have no experience dealing with shoe companies, and I have no idea what goes on during the final part of these negotiations.

My speculation, though, is that a couple things are at play. For one, the recent FBI scandal could give KU some leverage with Adidas. The apparel company obviously has had its reputation damaged in recent months, and KU could either be looking to get a better deal or perhaps even some wiggle room out of the contract in case more negative news breaks in the next few months or years.

A second big consideration, though, is that Adidas is offering to pay KU big bucks. This 2016 Forbes article shows how there is a big gap between the top and bottom schools when it comes to apparel deals, as at the time, Texas was getting more than $16 million annually for its deal, while Iowa State was at $1.5 million.

It goes without saying that the proposed 12-year, $191-million extension with Adidas would put KU toward the top of the NCAA if signed. Also, if KU backed out, it would be dealing with a group of other apparel companies that would have their own leverage while understanding the school’s situation of needing a new partner while cutting off negotiations with its previous high bidder.

Especially with the KU football team struggling to produce revenue at this point, I’d think it’d be difficult for KU to turn down a large financial offer from a company willing to give it. That could help explain why KU appears to still be negotiating with Adidas, with a final resolution perhaps coming soon.

The Jayhawks usually do finish the Big 12 regular season with a road game, but I think that’s mostly because of their next-to-last contest.

In three of the previous six years, KU’s final home game has fallen on ESPN’s Big Monday. In other words ... the Jayhawks’ Senior Night makes for good television, and when choosing its marquee Monday games, ESPN seems to like having that contest in the spotlight.

In any case, I don’t think this is some grand conspiracy against KU. The final game’s location doesn’t really matter much, as the double-round robin ensures that home games will equal road games, no matter when they take place.

Last year’s Big 12 schedule was released on Aug. 31, so we actually aren’t behind when it comes to learning about KU’s conference opponents. I’d expect we’ll know more in the next couple weeks.

This story was originally published August 20, 2018 at 5:05 PM.