K-State Q&A: Will Howard, transfers, Big 12 race and the Oklahoma State upset formula
We have a plethora of excellent Kansas State topics on tap this week, so there’s no need for me to begin the mailbag with an elaborate introduction.
Let’s dive right into your questions. Thanks, as always, for providing them.
I am probably violating an unwritten rule in Big 12 country by answering a question about whether a team is back when that team isn’t Texas. But I am going to do it anyway.
If (let’s emphasize that word here) K-State beats Oklahoma State on Saturday, the Wildcats will validate themselves as contenders in the conference championship race.
Yes, they are currently in first place. But they are the only team in the top six that is playing with a backup quarterback and that is coming off a 27-point loss. There are valid reasons to doubt K-State as it closes out its schedule against three ranked teams and Baylor.
Perhaps this is just me being a pessimist, but I think its chances of reaching the Big 12 championship game disappeared last week in Morgantown. The Wildcats had been winning with smoke and mirrors (OK fine, defense and special teams) for a while now and West Virginia exposed a lot of their flaws.
They are probably going to need to finish 3-1 to make it to Arlington, Texas, and I have a hard time seeing them finishing any better than 2-2. Full disclosure: 1-3 seems most likely.
Now, before you start throwing tomatoes at me, I admit there’s always a chance in this weird season that a team with three conference losses can play for a championship. And there’s always a chance the Wildcats can bounce back and beat Oklahoma State. You can never say never with this team. Remember what they did at Oklahoma.
If K-State pulls off another shocker against OSU, one more win against Iowa State would put the Cats all alone in first place with tiebreakers against ISU, OU and OSU. The Wildcats will probably be underdogs in Ames, but they have won 12 of the past 13 Farmageddon games. They always have a chance against the Cyclones. With a win there, splitting their final two games against Baylor and Texas would be enough.
Beating OSU or ISU will keep K-State in the conference race, but starting that stretch with a win over OSU would make up for last week’s loss to West Virginia and return K-State to the driver’s seat of the conference race.
The Wildcats would definitely be back.
Am I allowed to order off menu here? I hope so, because that is what I’m going to do.
While all three scenarios you listed above are perfectly reasonable paths to a K-State victory, I don’t see the Wildcats actually taking any of them if they are able to upset the No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys.
The simplest way for K-State to win this game is a good, old-fashioned implode job from Spencer Sanders.
The OSU quarterback threw an interception and lost two fumbles against Texas last week, and that was just about the only reason the Longhorns won that game.
I mean, seriously, the stat sheet makes it look like the Cowboys should have won by 55. They gained 530 yards and held Texas to 287.
When Sanders was at the top of his game he was fantastic, throwing for 400 yards and four touchdowns. When he was off his game, he was the MVP for the wrong team. In addition to his blunders, the Cowboys lost another fumble and extended a Texas drive by committing a roughing-the-punter penalty.
They basically had five turnovers in that game.
There is little chance K-State can beat Oklahoma State straight up, but if the Cowboys hand the Wildcats five turnovers then Chris Klieman’s team will be in business.
From there, I suppose K-State will also have to check off at least a few items from your list. A touchdown on special teams or defense would help tremendously. So would getting Deuce Vaughn back on track.
Sanders tossed a pair of interceptions against K-State last year and Oklahoma State still dominated that game 26-13.
The one thing I absolutely don’t see happening, though, is K-State holding Oklahoma State to below 21 points. Chuba Hubbard ran for 296 yards against them last season.
This is going to be a tough game for the Wildcats, and they need to do everything a scrappy underdog normally does to pull off the upset.
I’ve got three names for you: Chabastin Taylor, Malik Knowles and Sammy Wheeler.
Taylor had a miserable game against West Virginia, but he’s still the best receiver on this team. If K-State can find a few ways to get him open across the middle he can make things a lot easier for Howard.
Knowles caught his first touchdown pass of the season on a beautiful 35-yard post route against West Virginia. Maybe that sparks his confidence? It would be great for the offense if K-State could get Knowles and Taylor going at the same time.
I also feel like Wheeler is worth mentioning. There is a chance Briley Moore won’t be healthy enough to play against Oklahoma State (they’re calling him a game-time decision), and even if he does play he might be limited. That opens the door for Wheeler to catch some passes. He doesn’t bring much to the table as a blocker, but he brings a lot as a receiver. I can see the Wildcats trying to get him more involved.
Unfortunately, all three are relying on a freshman quarterback to get them the ball. So a darkhorse option here could be a reserve running back like Keyon Mozee.
Bottom line: K-State has been a two-man offense ever since Skylar Thompson went down with an injury. It badly needs another player to provide a spark.
Forget yards and touchdowns. Howard needs to complete more than half his passes and avoid turnovers.
If he does that, the Wildcats will have a chance.
Klieman talks more glowingly about his quarterbacks than I do about Whataburger.
He called Easton Stick “the best quarterback in college football” when he was at North Dakota State. He always talked about Skylar Thompson like he was Tom Brady. And he didn’t have a single negative thing to say about Howard following his three-turnover game against West Virginia.
So, no, he hasn’t said much about Howard having a wimpy arm.
From what I’ve seen, Howard’s arm strength seems fine. It looked good last week during his touchdown pass to Knowles. If there’s anything I worry about with him it’s his legs. He doesn’t look like the surest-footed runner.
Offensive MVP: Deuce Vaughn.
This is an open-and-shut case. There is no discussion to be had. Briley Moore finishes in a distant second.
Defensive MVP: Jahron McPherson.
You could make a case for a few different players here, including Justin Hughes (leading tackler), Wyatt Hubert (most talented player) and Drew Wiley (Klieman’s pick) but I’m going with McPherson because we have seen how much better the Wildcats are with him on the field at safety compared to when he is injured and unable to play. He is the quarterback of the secondary.
Special Teams MVP: Phillip Brooks.
He clinched this honor with his huge game against KU, but Brock Monty and Blake Lynch have also been excellent on special teams.
Biggest surprise: Deuce Vaughn.
Sorry to list him again, but he is making us all re-think what is possible for a K-State freshman. I knew he was going to be good, but nowhere near this good.
Biggest disappointment: Joshua Youngblood.
There was no way he was going to live up to his personal goals of 1,000 rushing yards, 1,000 receiving yards and 1,000 return yards ... but we all thought he would do more than he did before electing to transfer.
E-MAIL QUESTION: I watched Jacardia Wright’s high school career. He is a beast, proved it last year. Why is he not getting any meaningful touches this year? Why is Trotter getting all the playing and touches while not producing? John K.
Let it be known that this is the final time I will include a question about Jacardia Wright in this space until he does something of merit to deserve playing time.
Harry Trotter is a leader for the offense and a good blocker in both pass protection and on running plays that go to other ball carriers. That is why he plays while averaging an unimpressive three yards per carry.
Wright does none of those things and averages an even uglier 2.8 yards per carry.
What more needs to be said?
Running backs coach Brian Anderson spoke with media earlier this week and said “consistency” was holding Wright back. Anderson has also spoken more highly of five other K-State running backs this season.
Look, I thought Wright was going to be good this year, too, especially after the way he rushed for 60 yards and a touchdown on six carries against Iowa State last season. But, in hindsight, that was the only time he played meaningful snaps. And his only job was to run the ball when he was in the game, because of horrible weather. There was no need for him to know the rest of the offense. Things are different under normal conditions.
He may end up being a terrific player. But he hasn’t arrived yet.
He saw 22 touches last season. He has seen six touches this season. His usage hasn’t changed. Let’s pump the brakes on trying to figure out why a freshman reserve running back isn’t leading the team in carries.
E-MAIL QUESTION: Should I be concerned about the number of players that are transferring out of the Kansas State football program this year? - Andrew B.
For those that don’t keep track of such things, eight players that began the summer listed on K-State’s football roster have left the team and have entered their names in the NCAA transfer portal.
One of them, Ronald Triplette, has already found a new home at Texas-San Antonio.
How concerning is it to lose eight players six games into a season? The answer depends on the players that are electing to leave.
In this case, they are mostly young and seldom-used players, so I don’t think you should be very concerned. It’s not nothing. But it’s not something to panic about, either.
Joshua Youngblood is the one loss that should make you scratch your head. Things went south for him this season on and off the field, but he was coming off a big freshman year and had lots of potential. You hate to lose a player like that.
The rest? Meh. Sorry if that sounds harsh for Walter Neil, Thomas Grayson, Matthew Pola-Mao, Derick Newton, Jonathan Alexander, DeMarrquese Hayes and Triplette, but would K-State’s roster be any better off right now with any of those players still on the team?
Maybe Neil and Alexander would come in handy given some of the injuries in the secondary, but that has been an area of strength for the Wildcats most of the season. Their departures seem like addition by subtraction.
And it’s not like most of those players wanted to be here. Alexander, Grayson, Neil and Pola-Mao all opted out before the season began. Their returns to the team were always in doubt. No one should be surprised they are transferring.
While I realize there are certain situations in which a player chooses not to play football solely because of COVID, I suspect mosts of those decisions are made for more complicated reasons like homesickness, playing time or any other reason you can think of. When all is said and done, I wonder how many players that chose to opt out this season return to play for the team they abandoned for a year. My guess is not many.
Seniors being able to return to college next year further complicates matters. In some ways I wonder if these transfers ultimately become a positive and make K-State’s roster situation simpler next season.
The bad news for K-State heading into Saturday’s game against Oklahoma State, aside from being a 12-point underdog, is that Klieman has never stopped a losing streak at one game with the Wildcats.
I realize he’s working with a small sample size, but it’s still true.
K-State followed its first loss last season (at Oklahoma State) with another loss to Baylor.
Then, after a four-game winning streak, the Wildcats lost consecutive games to Texas and West Virginia.
If you want to connect seasons, he ended last year with a loss to Navy at the Liberty Bowl and opened this year with a loss to Arkansas State.
Go ahead and chalk up this game as a loss, I guess. The good news is Klieman hasn’t lost three in a row yet. So the Wildcats should feel good about that Iowa State game.
It’s hard to say why Klieman has struggled in bounce-back games. He barely lost at all at North Dakota State. I think it’s just been a weird schedule dynamic in which K-State plays difficult games consecutively.
Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas were all really good last year, and West Virginia clearly knows how to play against the Wildcats. Navy has that goofy offense and K-State was down 40 players against Arkansas State.
Had the Wildcats played KU in any of those spots, they would have won.
K-State will need to play an excellent game to beat Oklahoma State regardless of what happened a week ago.
My three preferred locations are ...
1. Aggieville in front of the old Varneys and current Rally House building.
2. The lawn in front of Anderson Hall on campus.
3. The old football stadium.
The Snyder statue or the current stadium would work fine, too, but everyone would have more room at the old stadium and I think it would be a cool setting. I suppose you could also set up on Poyntz.
Hopefully we can go back to a normal “College Gameday” environment in the near future. Virtual fans aren’t doing it for me.
This story was originally published November 6, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "K-State Q&A: Will Howard, transfers, Big 12 race and the Oklahoma State upset formula."