Making sense of jumbled Big 12 standings and Kansas State’s outlook in league race
After years of watching Oklahoma dominate the Big 12, it feels bizarre to look at the conference standings and see the Sooners sitting there in a tie for fourth place as November begins.
Even weirder, there are currently six teams with realistic hopes of winning the league championship.
Iowa State and Kansas State are in first place with 4-1 conference records. Oklahoma State is a half game back at 3-1. Then traditional powers Oklahoma and Texas are next in line along with West Virginia at 3-2.
Good luck handicapping the race to Arlington, Texas for this season’s Big 12 championship game.
“This is the most parity that we have had in this league in a long time,” Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said. “I don’t pay much attention to it, but I think you are going to see more spreads when teams play each other that are very little — just two or three point spreads — and that is because of the parity. With the exception of Texas, most of the teams in this league aren’t playing with an experienced quarterback. The teams in this league are going to beat each other up.”
Unexpected results have certainly become the norm in the Big 12 this season. That’s bad for the league’s College Football Playoff hopes. But it’s good for teams that are tired of finishing behind Oklahoma.
K-State lost at home to Arkansas State and could barely stay on the field with West Virginia, but the Wildcats also beat the Sooners on the road and won their first four conference games.
Oklahoma lost its first two Big 12 games but is suddenly looking like a contender with consecutive wins over Texas, TCU and Texas Tech.
Iowa State opened the season with a blowout loss to Louisiana but rebounded by winning four of its next five.
The conference race took its wildest turn yet over the weekend when Texas, which was on the verge of falling out of the mix, beat previously undefeated Oklahoma State in overtime. With K-State also falling to West Virginia, every team in the league now has at least one conference loss.
“You can chalk a lot of that up to COVID,” K-State coach Chris Klieman said. “There are a lot of teams that struggled with COVID and now you have COVID and injuries. I am proud of this league for playing as many games as we have.”
For now, it is anyone’s race.
The current betting favorite is Oklahoma (5-to-4), followed by Oklahoma State (9-to-4), Iowa State (15-to-4) and Texas (5-to-1), according to Bovada. K-State (10-to-1) has long odds compared to that group, but not as long as West Virginia (40-to-1) which is currently the darkhorse team in this race.
No team has played in the Big 12 championship game with more than two conference losses since its reincarnation in 2017. Last season, both Baylor and Oklahoma entered AT&T Stadium with just one loss. Expect that to change this year. If ever there was a time for a team to reach Arlington with three (or maybe even four) Big 12 losses, this is it.
We may start to see some clarity on Saturday. K-State hosts Oklahoma State in a game with huge implications for both teams. The winner will be sitting pretty. The loser will have little room for error down the stretch. Texas also hosts West Virginia in a game that might effectively eliminate the loser from the mix and validate the winner.
All the while, Oklahoma and Iowa State will be big favorites at home against Kansas and Baylor, respectively.
So which teams will ultimately emerge from the pack?
“It’s the one that can keep getting better,” Iowa State coach Matt Campbell said. “It’s such a unique challenge in the year we’re in. Growth and maximizing your full potential is critical in any year for the team that has the ultimate success in the conference, but it’s even magnified more now than ever before.”
Like an exciting horse race, the Big 12 will be decided by which contender finishes the strongest down the stretch.
Here is a look at where the top six teams currently stand:
Kansas State
Record: 4-2, 4-1 Big 12.
Remaining games: Oklahoma State, at Iowa State, at Baylor, Texas.
Outlook: The next two games will determine the Wildcats’ fate in the Big 12 championship race. A pair of victories against the Cowboys and Cyclones will all but clinch a trip to Arlington. A split will keep them in the mix. Two losses will almost certainly end their hopes. A difficult closing schedule and a freshman quarterback make for a difficult path. They will need to bounce back quickly from last week’s loss at West Virginia.
Iowa State
Record: 4-2, 4-1 Big 12.
Remaining games: Baylor, Kansas State, at Texas, West Virginia.
Outlook: Is this the year Matt Campbell finally guides the Cyclones beyond the middle of the pack? They probably have the easiest path to the Big 12 championship game with three of their final four games at home. But they have lost 11 of 12 to K-State and their final two games against Texas and West Virginia will be pressure-packed for Brock Purdy and Wichita product Breece Hall.
Oklahoma State
Record: 4-1, 3-1 Big 12.
Remaining games: at Kansas State, at Oklahoma, Texas Tech, at TCU, at Baylor.
Outlook: This is one of Mike Gundy’s most complete teams, and it will likely be favored in four of its final five games. But the Cowboys have never had much luck against the Sooners. Fortunately for them, they may not need a win in Norman to reach the Big 12 championship game.
Oklahoma
Record: 4-2, 3-2 Big 12.
Remaining games: Kansas, Oklahoma State, at West Virginia, Baylor.
Outlook: The Sooners might be playing better than any other team in the conference at the moment, but they are also looking up at three teams in the league standings. Winning out will take care of that problem. That’s a possibility with Spencer Rattler coming into his own. But that is also hardly a given with Oklahoma State and West Virginia remaining on the schedule.
Texas
Record: 4-2, 3-2 Big 12.
Remaining games: West Virginia, at Kansas, Iowa State, at Kansas State.
Outlook: Beating Oklahoma State in overtime thrust the Longhorns back into the Big 12 championship race. But that doesn’t necessarily mean Texas is back. Not yet anyway. There’s a chance the Longhorns will be favored in all four of their remaining games. But that didn’t prevent them from losing at home to TCU earlier this season. Like Gundy said, Ehlinger could be a x-factor in this race.
West Virginia
Record: 4-2, 3-2 Big 12.
Remaining games: at Texas, TCU, Oklahoma, at Iowa State.
Outlook: The Mountaineers could end up being spoilers for a lot of teams in the Big 12 race. Or they could end up winning the trophy. A top-flight defense will give West Virginia a chance in all four of its remaining games. But a long winning streak could be hard to attain given that this team already lost to Texas Tech.
This story was originally published November 4, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Making sense of jumbled Big 12 standings and Kansas State’s outlook in league race."