Greitens’ Senate run means a migraine for Missouri Republicans — and Democrats, too
Eric Greitens’ Senate candidacy is a massive headache for Republicans in Missouri, but Democrats need aspirin, too.
At the moral and policy level, Greitens is a debacle. He’s a serial liar who abused a woman and resigned in disgrace, having accomplished nothing. He should be hiding, not running.
At the political level, though, it’s complicated.
Most Missouri Republicans remain aghast at the candidacy. They hate Greitens with a passion.
The ads will be brutal. Twitter already is. Party elders are frantically pushing for a two-person primary — Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt is the early favorite — because the “anyone but Greitens” vote would coalesce around a single alternative.
In a crowded field, though, the odds are different. Assuming several quality opponents — Schmitt, Reps. Vicky Hartzler, Jason Smith, Billy Long or Ann Wagner, rich guy John Brunner, a wild card or two — Greitens could win the Republican nomination with 30% of the vote, which seems within reach.
It’s the GOP nightmare, similar to the one Kansas Republicans faced with Kris Kobach.
But Republicans aren’t the only ones staring at their coffee this morning, pondering Sen. Eric Greitens. His outside chance at winning means Missouri’s Democrats have their own calculating to do, and it needs to begin quickly.
You’d expect the party, in normal years, to take a pass on this race. The campaign would be costly, difficult, exhausting. And a generic Democrat would lose to a generic Republican. (Anyone who doubts this should give Democratic Kansas Senate nominee Barb Bollier a call, or look at the statewide Missouri results in 2020.)
Better to spend time and energy on important state legislative races, and rebuilding the party in rural and suburban counties, than to pursue a hopeless Senate campaign.
But the calculus instantly changes with Greitens in the race. “Anyone is a viable candidate against Eric Greitens,” a Democratic strategist said Tuesday.
Perhaps. But which Democrat is willing to raise money and campaign across a big state for two years, knowing his or her only chance is with Greitens as the opponent?
Let’s be honest: This is bigger than politics. Missouri Democrats now have a moral obligation to find a quality candidate to oppose Greitens. They simply can’t concede the race to depravity.
Some Democrats spent Tuesday whistling past that particular graveyard. “Eric Greitens is the single best recruiting tool Missouri Democrats have,” one party insider said, ignoring the donkey in the room: OK, but who?
Two Democrats, former Missouri state Sen. Scott Sifton and Marine veteran Lucas Kunce, have announced. Ask your neighbors if they recognize either name. Jason Kander, who almost beat Blunt in 2016, says he’s out.
Rep. Emanuel Cleaver is too old, and Rep. Cori Bush in St. Louis won’t risk her freshman seat for a statewide race. Missouri Auditor Nicole Galloway just lost a tough campaign by double digits. Other statewide candidates did worse.
Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas has whispered about the race, but it’s more likely he’ll wait until Cleaver retires. A Black candidate has never won a statewide office in Missouri.
Some Democrats pine for former Gov. Jay Nixon. It says a lot about the state of the party that some think their best option is a candidate who lost a Senate race to Jack Danforth by 35 points — in 1988. Yikes.
So, the Greitens Dilemma: Democrats, politically and morally, need a great candidate in case Greitens wins the Republican nomination. A great candidate would be young, smart, charismatic, well-funded — and willing to lose if Greitens isn’t the opponent.
Democrats have no idea if there is such a candidate. They now have no choice but to find one.
If you’re interested, applications are now being accepted. The line is short, and there’s no waiting.
