Five days of storm chances ahead for KC: Which days pose the biggest risk?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Kansas City faces off-and-on showers and thunderstorms across the next five days.
- Friday is the main concern with very large hail and damaging winds possible.
- Monday could bring storms with large hail, damaging winds and possible tornadoes.
A stormy pattern is moving in, and Kansas City could see off-and-on showers and thunderstorms for the next five days, with a few possibly turning severe, according to the National Weather Service.
There’s a small (10%–20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning. The activity should stay well east of the Kansas City metro, mainly east of U.S. 65, which runs through Sedalia.
In the metro, temperatures will reach around 79 degrees, slightly above the average of 74 degrees for mid-May.
Then, in the afternoon, storms could develop across central Kansas. These storms may pose a severe weather threat across northern Missouri as they move eastward in the evening and overnight, the weather service said.
The chance of evening storms is 20%-40%, primarily north of Interstate 70. The chance for overnight storms grows to 40%-60%, mainly along and east of U.S. 65, the Weather Service said.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of central and eastern Kansas under a slight (Level 2 of 5) risk of severe weather. The Kansas City area and northern Missouri are under a marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk.
If storms hold together as they move east, large hail and damaging winds are possible.
Unstable air could fuel storms
Friday is the main concern as a very unstable air mass moves in and could fuel severe storms, especially in the afternoon and evening.
Warm and humid conditions will also move in, with Friday’s temperatures climbing to around 89 degrees.
“If storms are able to develop during the afternoon, they are likely to become severe with large/very large hail possible and damaging winds,” the weather service said.
Forecasters think storms are more likely to form to the west in Kansas, then merge into a larger complex that moves into eastern Kansas and parts of west-central and northern Missouri, with strong, damaging winds possible, according to the forecast discussion.
The timing of the storms is late afternoon into the evening and overnight, with the best chances coming after sunset.
For these storms, the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Kansas and Missouri, including the Kansas City metro, under a slight (Level 2 of 5) risk of severe weather, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary hazards.
The warm and humid weather is expected to stretch through the weekend, which could keep the potential for afternoon and/or overnight storms going Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures on both days will be in the mid- to upper 80s.
Large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes possible
Focus then shifts to Monday, when a strong cold front is expected to move through an extremely unstable air mass.
“Storms seem likely to develop during the afternoon along/just ahead of that cold front and then quickly race to the east as the front swiftly moves through the forecast area,” the weather service said. “Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes look possible with this setup.”
Behind the front, cooler and less humid weather is expected beginning Tuesday.
