From 70s to ice: Why this weekend’s winter storm could snarl Kansas City travel
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- Warm, dry, windy Friday raises grassfire risk and prompts red flag warning.
- Forecast shifts push snow and ice chances north of the Missouri River.
- Sunday’s mixed precipitation could produce hazardous travel into Monday.
Things are about to get messy in Kansas City as a powerful winter storm targets the metro Sunday, but whether you see rain, snow, or ice will depend on where you live — and just how cold it gets, according to the National Weather Service.
But before the wintry blast, the metro will make a run at record temperatures Friday.
“Temperatures roar into the upper 60s and 70s with gusty winds approaching 20-30 mph,” the weather service said.
Record warmth, fire danger to end February
With temperatures in the metro expected to climb to about 73 degrees, the record for this date — set just last year — is in play. This comes as Kansas City is facing one of its warmest and driest Februarys on record.
The hot, dry and windy weather has raised concerns that grassfires could ignite and spread rapidly.
The weather service has issued a red flag warning for the entire Kansas City region, saying, “Any fire that develops will catch and spread quickly.”
Outdoor burning is “very highly discouraged,” the weather service said. The warning is in effect from noon to 6 p.m.
Temperatures on Saturday are also expected to be quite warm, reaching around 70 degrees, well above the average high of 49 degrees typical for late February in Kansas City.
Wintry mix targets region Sunday into Monday
“Impactful wintry weather continues to be a major concern for Sunday into Monday,” the weather service said.
A lot of uncertainty remains in the forecast as temperatures waffle across the area, causing the rain/snow line to continue to shift, the weather service said.
There has been a slight northward shift in the zone where the wintry mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain is expected, pushing the greater chances of at least 1 inch of snow to areas north of the Missouri River.
There is about a 30-55% chance of at least an inch of snow north of the river, according to the weather service.
The areas with the greatest potential for freezing rain have also shifted north, where there is a 20-40% chance for at least .01 inch of ice.
Who sees snow, ice or rain?
Generally, areas north of a line from St. Joseph to Hannibal should see mostly snow. Meanwhile, areas along the Missouri River between Kansas City and St. Louis are at risk of a wintry mix.
Areas south of U.S. 50 should see mainly rain, according to a National Weather Service map showing the regions expected to be impacted by the winter storm.
“While confidence remains low on precipitation type and timing, confidence in impactful wintry weather is fairly high,” the weather service said.
Rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow are all possible Sunday into early Monday, with the peak impacts expected Sunday afternoon and evening, the weather service said.
Hazardous travel conditions are possible, especially north of the Missouri River. The transition zone between the different types of precipitation remains broad and can shift, significantly affecting what each area sees, the weather service said.
Storm ushers in soggy, stormy week
Sunday’s storm will also kick off an active weather week in Kansas City, with several more rounds of rain that could bring a few inches of much‑needed moisture after a dry February.
There will be multiple chances for rain, with the potential for thunderstorms, the weather service said. Temperatures are expected to be warm enough that the precipitation will remain as rain.
“Totals through the end of next week could be significant with a 35-55% chance for at least 2 inches of rain for the 72-hour period ending Saturday morning and a 10-20% chance for at least 3 inches of rain for the same time frame,” the weather service said.
