Overnight KC storms: Damaging winds, large hail, downpours possible. What’s tornado risk?
Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to sweep across the Kansas City area overnight Tuesday, bringing the possibility of heavy rain, damaging winds, large hail, and maybe a tornado, according to the National Weather Service.
Before the threat of severe weather arrives, the metro will see a windy and mild day. Gusts between 30 and 45 mph are expected to develop over the area late in the morning and continue into the evening.
“These strong southeasterly winds will usher in warmer temperatures as highs will range from the upper 50s to the northeastern CWA (Kansas City forecast area) to the mid- to upper 60s for the KC Metro and for areas along and south of the Missouri River,” the weather service said.
This will be slightly above the average temperature for this date. Kansas City typically sees temperatures around 61 degrees this time of year.
Strong, severe thunderstorms likely in Kansas City
“As we move into tonight, the threat for severe weather continues to look like it will impact the area,” the weather service said in its forecast discussion.
The main change in the forecast is that the storm system has slowed, making the severe weather threat an overnight event into Wednesday morning, the weather service said.
A cold front is expected to move across central Kansas this evening. There is a good chance for strong, isolated supercell thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes to develop across parts of north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas, according to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center.
Supercells are dangerous storms characterized by rotating updrafts that resemble tall storm clouds with anvils or elongated clouds at their tops.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed that area, which includes Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita and Topeka, under an enhanced risk of severe weather. The Kansas City metro is under a slight risk.
By the time the cold front approaches the Kansas City area, storms along it are expected to be mainly linear, the weather service said.
In response to a question on Facebook about the timing of the storm in the metro area, the weather service said there may be a few supercells ahead of the main line of the storm.
“The best chance for those to develop looks to be southwest of the Metro; however, if they can hold together, we could see some severe storms capable of large hail and an isolated tornado as early as 9 p.m.,” the weather service said.
Otherwise, the line of storms appears to be the leading player and is expected to reach the Kansas City metro between 1 and 2 a.m., the weather service said.
“The general trend with this system has been to slow down so if anything, the timing on these storms would be pushed back further,” the weather service said.
The cold front is expected to exit the Kansas City area by late morning. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 70s, with winds gusting up to 40 mph.
More rain in forecast
A cool and active weather pattern is expected Thursday through Sunday. After climbing to around 60 degrees on Thursday, temperatures are expected to remain in the 50s through Sunday.
A stalled cold front will bring chances of rain, especially in the southern areas, from Thursday through Saturday.
One last round of rain is expected in the metro area overnight Saturday into Sunday.
“Conditions look to finally dry out late this weekend into early next week,” the weather service said.
