Will Kansas City really get up to 12 inches of snow from winter storm? Depends.
The old saying of “Don’t count your chickens before they hatch” could apply somewhat to the impending winter storm that is expected to blanket the Kansas City area with snow over multiple days this week.
While up to a foot of snow, or more, is possible in some areas, there’s uncertainty remaining in the tricky forecast as to how much snow the metro will actually see. If the storm’s track shifts even a little bit, the Kansas City metro area could see significantly lesser amounts of snowfall.
Even in the Kansas City area, snowfall totals may differ dramatically depending on where you live.
“You’re going to see a pretty big gradation even just across the metro area and the official snowfall measurement at the (Kansas City International) airport won’t necessarily reflect what you’re seeing on the southeast side of town,” said Dan Pydynowski, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.
There’s a couple factors at play — one being the actual track the storm takes. Kansas City appears to be setup on the northern fringe of the storm. It’s not unusual on the northern fringe on these type of storms to see accumulations go from significant snow to almost nothing over a short distance.
Also at play is an air mass pushing southward out of Canada and into the the Midwest and Plains.
“It is a very cold and dry arctic air,” Pydynowski said. “So once you get far enough removed away from the storm center and the associated moisture, it tends to dry out very quickly.”
Forecasters, however, are pretty certain that most everyone will see some snow.
“When it’s all said and done, you’re probably looking at a general six to 10 or six to 12 inches across the KC area, but it’s going to vary widely whether you head a little south or southeast away from the city or whether you head north up towards St. Joseph.”
Forecast indicates significant snowfall
The National Weather Service in Kansas City has issued a winter storm warning for Kansas City and the surrounding region.
Between five and nine inches of snow is possible in Kansas City, according to the latest forecast from the weather service.
Meanwhile 10 to 14 inches of snow can be expected across central and eastern Missouri. Between three and six inches of snow is expected in St. Joseph, Chillicothe and Kirksville.
Here’s the current thinking on the winter storm and how it will impact Kansas City and the surrounding area:
Weather conditions will start out mild with unseasonably warm temperatures. The high temperature for Tuesday, recorded at midnight, was 57 degrees, about 17 degrees above the normal temperature for this time of year in Kansas City.
Light rain is expected to develop later in the day. A cold front will move through later Tuesday, sending temperatures plunging.
“Temperatures are going to quickly fall this evening to below freezing and then by later tonight, temperatures will end up in the upper teens,” Pydynowski said. “It’s going to turn windy and cold.”
There could be a brief period of light freezing rain or drizzle before the rain turns to snow. Any precipitation that is falling will change over to all snow. The snow will come in two rounds.
“There’s going to be a first round of snow later tonight into Wednesday, probably into the morning or midday hours,” Pydynowski said. “Then there’s probably going to be a break at some point Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.”
Then another wave of low pressure will bring the Kansas City another round of snow Wednesday night into the first half of the day Thursday.
“The second piece is the trickier one on how far north or northwest it’s going to come,” Pydynowski said. “We think there will probably end up being a pretty big spread of snow accumulation even just across the Kansas City area.”
The northern part of the metro and areas to the north and northwest will see lesser amounts while the southern part of Kansas City will see greater totals.
“If you head south and southeast more into central Missouri, there will be probably great amounts of snow,” Pydynowski said. “So there is going to be a very tight northwest to southeastern edge or gradient when we are looking at snow totals when it’s all said and done.”
Temperatures will also turn sharply colder, bottoming out in the teens Tuesday night and climbing to around 20 degrees on Wednesday. They will then tumble into the single digits overnight Wednesday. Wind chills will hover around zero degrees. Thursday night into Friday morning will probably be the coldest period as temperatures plunge to the lower single digits.
For those who have to be out driving in the storm beginning Tuesday night through the day Thursday, they should have an emergency kit in their car with extra blankets to keep warm in case they get stuck, in a traffic jam or a crash.
“If you’re fortunate enough to have the ability to work from home or whatnot, that is certainly advisable here,” Pydynowski said. “Let the road crews get out there and do their thing and clear the roads.”
This story was originally published February 1, 2022 at 10:13 AM.
