When could we know which party will control the House? Here’s what experts have to say

This story is up to date as of 3 p.m. ET Nov. 7.

Republicans have won control of both the White House and the Senate, but — two days after Election Day — the House of Representatives still hangs in the balance.

And the result will likely determine how effective President-elect Donald Trump will be in enacting his agenda.

As of Nov. 7, Republicans hold 210 seats in the House, while Democrats hold 197 — leaving both parties short of the 218-seat threshold required to win a majority.

Meanwhile, 28 races have yet to be called, including in California, New York and Ohio, according to the Associated Press.

It could be at least several more days before the outcome of these races — and the balance of power in the lower chamber of Congress — are known, experts said.

Why is there a delay in House results?

There are a number of reasons as to why some House races can take longer than others to be called.

For one, some states allow mail-in ballots received after Election Day to be counted.

California, for example, permits mail-in ballots received up until seven days after Election Day to be counted — as long as they are postmarked by Election Day.

“A large proportion of votes are mail-ins, and will arrive today and tomorrow,” Christopher Hare, a professor of political science at the University of California, Davis, told McClatchy News.

Additionally, some states count ballots by hand, which is a “time-consuming” process, James Thurber, an emeritus professor of government at American University, told McClatchy News.

A dozen states — including Texas, Colorado and New Hampshire — employ hand counting, according to Ballotpedia, a nonprofit election tracker.

When could we know the results?

“It may take until Saturday to know who controls the House,” Thurber said, noting that some close races may require recounts.

“I suspect we’ll have a good idea on Friday, but given the tightness of the overall House composition and the timeline in states like California, I wouldn’t be surprised if this drags on until at least next week,” Hare said.

Two other experts contacted by McClatchy News said it is not yet clear when these last races will be called.

Does one party have an advantage?

Currently, Republicans are eight seats shy of reaching a majority, while Democrats are 21 seats away.

“The Republicans are the odds-on favorites to retain control of the House, but it’s likely to be a tight margin,” Hare said.

But at least one expert believes the Democrats have a chance to win the House.

“It looks like a tough battle for the Democrats to take the majority, but I think they may pull it off,” Thurber said.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, meanwhile, projected confidence about retaining a GOP majority.

In a Nov. 6 post on X, he wrote, “Republicans are poised to have unified government in the White House, Senate, and House.”

On the other hand, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a Democrat from New York, wrote in his own post that “the House remains very much in play.”

Experts said they are watching certain key races, which could help determine the balance of power.

“I am watching the races in California which the Republicans picked up in 2022 and which are vulnerable,” Robert Shapiro, a professor of government at Columbia University, told McClatchy News.

For example, Republican incumbents in California’s 13th, 41st, and 45th congressional districts all have small leads.

“I’ll be keeping an eye on those to see if some or all will hang on,” Hare said.

Races in Maryland’s 6th district, Iowa’s 1st district and Ohio’s 9th district also “look to be squeakers that will go down to the wire,” Hare said.

Ultimately, no matter how the races turn out, the House will be fiercely divided come January.

“In either case the House will continue to be gridlocked without cross party voting on the many issues facing the next Congress,” Thurber said.

This story was originally published November 7, 2024 at 1:55 PM with the headline "When could we know which party will control the House? Here’s what experts have to say."