How will the midterms play out? Poll shows which party has the edge in key districts

While not as certain as death and taxes, it is a fairly safe bet that the race for which party will control Congress will begin to narrow as Election Day draws near.

Less than a month out from the midterm elections, the race is now neck-and-neck among likely voters nationwide, with 50% supporting the Democratic candidates and 47% backing the Republicans, according to a new CNN poll. But, within competitive districts, voter preference is leaning toward Republicans.

Forty-eight percent of likely voters in competitive districts, places like Arizona’s first and Maine’s second congressional district, prefer the Republican candidate compared to 43% for the Democrat, according to the poll.

CNN surveyed 1,982 American adults over the past month for the poll, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

In terms of voter enthusiasm, 65% of registered, Republican voters in competitive districts say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in the midterms, while 47% of Democrats said the same. The survey found that inflation is by far the most galvanizing issue for Republicans come November, while abortion remains a key motivator for Democrats, which matches up with what a September NPR poll found.

A large number of voters appear disenchanted with the options they have before them. About four in ten voters nationwide,or 43%, say that neither party’s candidates have ”a clear plan for solving the country’s problems.” By comparison only a quarter of surveyed voters think Democrats have a clear plan, and only a third of voters said Republicans do.

This comes as the share of Americans with unfavorable views of both political parties is the highest it’s been in decades, according to an August Pew poll. Nearly half of young adults said they “wish[ed] there were more parties to choose from.”

In the midterm elections, held on November 8, Democrats have about a 2 in 3 chance of maintaining their majority in the Senate, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis. Republicans are hoping to gain seats in Nevada and Georgia, while Democrats are looking to pick up a seat in Pennsylvania.

In Pennsylvania, Republican candidate Mehmet Oz is trailing Democratic candidate John Fetterman. The two have been engaged in a meme-heavy, policy-light face-off. In Georgia, Republican candidate Herschel Walker, who has been dogged by allegations that he paid for a former girlfriend’s abortion, a procedure he has aggressively campaigned against, is polling down slightly against incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Meanwhile, the race in Nevada between Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican challenger Adam Laxalt is a dead heat in recent polls.

In the House, where key races to watch include Arizona’s second district and California’s 22nd district, Republicans have roughly a 7 in 10 chance of reclaiming control, according to FiveThirtyEight’s predictions, meaning a divided congress is likely in store for 2023.

This story was originally published October 13, 2022 at 12:08 PM with the headline "How will the midterms play out? Poll shows which party has the edge in key districts."