Most Democrats don’t want Biden to run in 2024, poll finds. Who do they want instead?

Following months of underwater approval ratings, and despite an improvement in recent weeks, a decisive majority of Democrats say they do not want President Joe Biden to be the party’s nominee for president in 2024, according to new polling.

Fifty-six percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents polled say the party should choose a different nominee, with only 35% favoring another Biden run, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Sept. 25. The poll surveyed 1,006 adults, 908 of whom were registered voters, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Republicans, on the other hand, are more evenly split on whether former President Donald Trump should be their nominee, with 47% saying he should be and 46% saying a new candidate should be on the ballot, according to the poll.

In a supposed rematch, the poll found Biden and Trump were essentially in a dead heat with a 48-46 percent split, with Biden slightly favored. When just looking at the polled registered voters, Trump holds a slight edge. Both of these slight leads are within the margin of error.

Who do voters want to run in 2024?

While a clear majority of Democratic voters oppose a repeat of 2020, they remain fragmented about who should replace Biden on the ballot come 2024, according to several recent national and state-wide polls.

A July poll of 635 U.S. adults from Premise Inc found 21% of respondents said Vice President Kamala Harris would be their preferred candidate in place of Biden, followed closely by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with 19%. Clinton said recently she will never run for president again, according to The Hill. California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg both tied for third at 9%, according to the Premise poll.

An August poll of 9,254 registered California voters from Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies found Sen. Bernie Sanders and Newsom were the preferred 2024 candidates, each receiving 13%. Harris, among Democratic voters in her home state, came in third with 10%. Buttigieg, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Sen.Elizabeth Warren and Secretary Clinton trailed behind in the single digits.

Among nationally recognized elected officials, Sanders retains the highest level of favorability, with 78% of Democratic voters and 46% of total voters feeling at least somewhat favorable towards him, according to an August Ipsos poll of 2,345 adults. Biden came in second with 43% total approval and Harris came in fifth with 40%. Sanders told CNN in June that he would not run for president again in 2024 if Biden ran for a second term.

If a 2020 rematch does occur, with both Biden and Trump facing approval ratings consistently below 50%, third-party hopefuls may see a window of opportunity.

Recently defeated Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney, who is considering a 2024 run, said on Sept. 24, “if [Trump] is the nominee, I won’t be a Republican,” indicating a potential third-party run, according to CNN.

Former Democratic presidential contender Andrew Yang launched the Forward Party in July, in the hope of providing a viable third-party alternative in 2024, according to Reuters. He hinted in an interview with Fox News that he may run as the party’s candidate if Biden and Trump both run again.

While third-party presidential candidates historically perform poorly in the U.S., they have the ability to swing elections. In the 1912 presidential election, Theodore Roosevelt’s Progressive Party run resulted in a Republican vote split between President Howard Taft and Roosevelt, allowing Woodrow Wilson to win handily, according to the American Presidency Project. In more recent history, some have argued that third-party candidate Ross Perot spoiled President George H.W. Bush’s reelection chances in 1992, according to the Wall Street Journal.

This story was originally published September 26, 2022 at 2:37 PM with the headline "Most Democrats don’t want Biden to run in 2024, poll finds. Who do they want instead?."