With Colyer out of the Kansas governor’s race, what’s ahead for Kelly, Schmidt?
On Monday, former Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer dropped out of the Republican race for governor, disclosing that he has prostate cancer.
As the week ends, the state’s Republican establishment is unified around his only opponent, Attorney General Derek Schmidt.
Schmidt already had the support of GOP elders Bob Dole and Pat Roberts and several top state legislators. By mid-week, the state’s three Republican U.S. representatives, the Kansas House majority leader and the Kansas Senate president were also on board.
“We have our guy. We have our nominee,” said David Kensinger, a Republican strategist and former chief of staff for Gov. Sam Brownback. Kansas Republican Party chair Mike Kuckleman declared Schmidt the presumptive nominee to take on Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly in 2022.
It’s possible another candidate could join the race — the filing deadline isn’t until June. Wichita businessman Wink Hartman told the Sunflower State Journal Wednesday he was still mulling a run. But many Republicans doubt anyone will emerge to seriously threaten Schmidt’s path to the nomination.
It effectively means a 15-month general election race between Schmidt and Kelly.
The last time Kansas Republicans rallied around a single candidate and bypassed a competitive primary was also the last time a non-incumbent Republican won the governor’s office. The year was 2010 and the candidate was Brownback.
“There’s more Republicans than Democrats in Kansas and if the Republicans are united they win,” Kensinger said.
A unified front means Schmidt can avoid the wear and tear (and expense) of attacks from a primary opponent and force Kelly to focus on her campaign earlier than she otherwise would have.
“Republicans have a bad habit of entering into bloody primaries so if you can avoid those your chances are a lot better,” said Sen. Richard Hilderbrand, a Galena Republican.
Primary opponents
Schmidt is not without intraparty challenges. One is his record as a state senator, which may complicate efforts to win over both GOP moderates and conservatives, said Anthony Hensley, the former Senate Minority Leader.
Prior to becoming Attorney General Schmidt took moderate positions as a lawmaker. But like many other ambitious Republicans he has shifted further right, in an attempt to build his appeal to supporters of former President Donald Trump. Most notably, he signed onto a lawsuit last year seeking to overturn the results of the Presidential election.
“Schmidt has pretty much shown people where he is and he’s firmly in the right wing faction of the Republican party by virtue of what he’s done as attorney general,” Hensley said. “I think Laura Kelly still has a lot of strong support from moderate Republicans particularly in the Johnson County area.”
Any movement towards the center, however, could invite a challenger into the race.
“I think he’s going to continue to have a really difficult path because he seems to have this perpetual need to throw himself at the feet of the most extreme elements of his party,” Sen. Ethan Corson, a Fairway Democrat and former executive director of the Kansas Democratic Party, said.
Republican supporters are dismissive of that analysis, asserting that Schmidt’s solid statewide foothold will make it difficult for a any challenger to catch up.
“Attorney General Schmidt has been all over the state, he spent a lot of time in Western Kansas boots on the ground,” said Rep. Ken Rahjes, an Agra Republican. “Whoever will be hard pressed to make that physical contact… There may be a few others, I have heard possible names but I think the dynamic changes with Gov. Colyer now out of the race.”
Increased Scrutiny
The narrowing of the field will also place more scrutiny on Kelly and Schmidt as they campaign through the final year of their terms.
For Kelly, Colyer’s exit means the loss of an opponent with the most direct link to Brownback — Colyer was his lieutenant governor — whose administration has been a frequent target.
“I think that probably puts a little pressure on Gov. Kelly to talk positively about what she’s done for Kansas and what she’s going to do in the future rather than what has historically been their principal campaign theme which has been attacking the Brownback administration,” said Greg Orman, a former independent candidate for Governor.
Schmidt’s clear path to the nomination also places his duties as attorney general in a different light, Orman said.
“It does put a spotlight on (Schmidt) and whatever he does as Attorney General because he’s not only doing it as Attorney General but he’s also doing it as the presumptive nominee for the Republican party.”
The competition will likely seep into Legislative matters as GOP lawmakers continue to grant Schmidt power as a check on Kelly as they did during the 2021 session, said Senate Minority Leader Dinah Sykes.
“I think it’s a very thin line of making sure the Governor has the authority she needs and that there’s separation of powers,” Sykes said.
While Republicans say Kelly’s chances of reelection are weakened by a unified Republican party and the lack of a contentious primary, Democrats argue that her record remains strong when contrasted with Schmidt’s.
“Schmidt’s long record of trying to have it both ways on top issues for Republican primary voters means he won’t get a free ride to the nomination, while his opposition to Medicaid expansion and plans to drag Kansas back to the Brownback days of defunding public schools will be deeply unpopular with everyone else,” said Sam Newton, Deputy Communications Director for the Democratic Governors Association.
“Meanwhile, Gov. Kelly continues to unify Kansans behind her strong record of working with both parties to balance budgets, fully fund public schools and bring thousands of new jobs to the state.”
Although she won’t be able to sit on the sidelines through a primary, Corson said the governor has already been visible across the state with announcements on economic development. But it will likely be several months yet before voters pay any real attention.
“It’s always healthy to have some humility about how focused folks will be about a race that’s this far away,” Corson said. “The vast majority of Kansans, they have not fully tuned into the idea of the governor’s race.”
The Star’s Jon Shorman contributed to this report.
This story was originally published September 3, 2021 at 10:56 AM.
