Fears of lawlessness and disgust with Trump clash in suburban St. Louis toss-up race
Lynn Schmidt, a part-time nurse with a disabled child who lives in suburban St. Louis, was appalled when Donald Trump mocked a reporter with a disability just months before the 2016 election. She voted third party that year.
Schmidt, 51, has voted for Republican Rep. Ann Wagner three times since 2012. She appreciated Wagner’s anti-abortion stance and hoped that the former state party chair could somehow help curb the president’s worst instincts.
This year, she voted for Wagner’s Democratic challenger, state Sen. Jill Schupp, in a race most political professionals consider a toss-up.
“I was hoping the institution of the Republican Party would’ve stopped (Trump), but they didn’t,” Schmidt said.
In Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District, the state’s wealthiest and most educated, many white suburban women view another vote for Wagner as a vote for more Trumpism. Wagner’s votes aligned with Trump 94.3% of the time, according to polling site FiveThirtyEight.
Those women were a critical part of Trump’s winning coalition in 2016. But polls show they are abandoning him, alienated by his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and a host of social and economic issues. The president’s pleas to reclaim them have become less and less subtle, laced with warnings that radical urban Democrats and “rampant crime” will puncture their suburban bubbles.
That message resonates with Diane Neff, 65 a Republican from Kirkwood, who plans to vote for Wagner and Trump.
“She’s a safety net for our state because she will endorse President Trump’s policies,” Neff said.
The battle for the presidency — and the Missouri 2nd — boils down to which candidate can sway centrist suburban voters who have experienced their fair share of disgust, be it with the president, as Schmidt says, or with “riots and lawlessness that have plagued our communities for months,” as Neff says.
Voters for Schupp, Biden
Wagner, 58, a former ambassador to Luxembourg under President George W. Bush, briefly renounced Trump in 2016 after the Access Hollywood tapes showed him bragging about sexually assaulting women. But when it was clear that he would remain on the ticket, she reconciled.
Schmidt’s disgust with the president mounted as she witnessed his border separation policies, his impeachment and handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Watching babies being separated from their families and hundreds of thousands die of COVID-19 did not align with her pro-life beliefs.
As Trump’s appeal eroded, so did Wagner’s. After rolling up huge margins her first three campaigns, she won the district in 2018 by just four points against a Democratic newcomer.
“I have spoken to many of my friends who have always voted Republican and they are voting for Biden,” Schmidt said. “For them, I think it has been COVID. But yeah, I think I agree with all the coverage that Trump is losing the suburbs because I think he has shown his incompetence.”
The other ground shifting influence in the 2nd is the Black Lives Matter movement. Brandon Boyd, 43, a Democrat from Kirkwood, believes suburban voters will come together to vote Trump out and Schupp in after protests over police violence united communities this summer.
“People always think that, well, yeah, you’re successful, you’ve got a good job, you’ve got a good family,” said Boyd. “I’m like, people don’t care about that. I’m an intimating 6-foot-3 Black guy. You never know whenever you can look at someone side-eyed and then find yourself at the bottom of a police officer’s knee. But having said all that, seeing people come together, it’s just really provided us with a lot of hope.”
Trump has portrayed Black Lives Matter as a threat to suburban women, playing on fears of civil unrest in urban areas. The clash between a wealthy elite and justice-seeking demonstrators played out in the upscale Central West End neighborhood of St. Louis when a gun-toting couple faced off with protesters in June following the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis.
But county residents know Trump’s message is a “dogwhistle, racist claim,” said Jennifer Box, a 40-year-old Webster Groves resident who owns a small marketing business.
“That’s deliberately worded to scare people who have picked to live in a certain area so that they fear people who live in a different area,” Box said. “We’re all part of St. Louis.”
Wagner has sought to distinguish herself from Trump, heading up a House Suburban Caucus intended to roll back growing Democratic support in the suburbs with policies on parental leave and retirement savings. But Mike Fuhro of Kirkwood said she hasn’t done enough.
“She’s afraid of invoking his wrath,” said Fuhro, a retired information technology project manager. “The fact that she’s been silent when Trump’s done what I consider to be so many terrible and egregious things is a non-starter for her.”
The national Democratic party has long had Wagner on its list of vulnerable incumbents. Schupp, 65, a former Missouri House member, won her state senate seat by defeating Jay Ashcroft (now Missouri Secretary of State) in 2014. The race is tight, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia Center for Politics ranking it a toss-up.
If Schupp manages to bank on concerns about the survival of the Affordable Care Act and distances herself from calls to defund the police, she could eliminate the dwindling advantage voters have given Wagner.
“It should go without saying that I do not side with criminals ever,” Schupp said in an Oct. 12 video on her Facebook page. “ ... I support our first responders and I oppose defunding the police.”
Voters for Wagner, Trump
For voters who support Trump, Wagner represents protection from attacks on “institutions that have made us thrive and stable,” such as law enforcement, said Neff, a retired high school teacher.
“Burning down your city and affecting your own community just appalls me. And yes, I’m totally against it, and I think it should be a concern for everyone,” Neff said.
While Neff doesn’t believe the Minneapolis police officer acted appropriately when he kneeled on George Floyd’s neck, she doesn’t see racism is a problem in the U.S.
“Systemic racism is a very difficult term to define because when you look at our country and you talk to a lot of people in the Black community, they think it’s a ridiculous term,” said Neff, who is white. “You know, they’re successful, they point to fact that we elected Barack Obama twice. ... Do I think we’re a racist nation? No, not at all. I think we have issues we can work on, but I feel that people are very open.”
Like Neff, “law and order” is a key issue for retired business executive Ken Shead of Wildwood, whose son-in-law is a firefighter. Shead is concerned that protests the St. Louis region saw this summer might return, possibly putting his son-in-law in danger.
“I worry about him performing his job if this level of lawlessness returns to the St. Louis area,” said Shead, 63. “It will only take one action by a local St. Louis or suburban St. Louis police officer and the types of riots in Portland suburbs, Seattle suburbs, Chicago Miracle Mile and other places could be in my backyard and cause me to defend my family and property.”
Valerie Mertz of Chesterfield voted for Wagner because she “100% supports our law enforcement and our military.” Mertz, a retired biology teacher, said she has also seen Wagner demonstrate “compassion and willingness to help people,” including businesses. As the wife of a farmer and a board member for the St. Louis County Farm Bureau, Mertz says supporting agribusiness is key.
“Her family owned a carpet business and she knows a lot about the struggles,” Mertz said of Wagner.
It comes back to law enforcement for Carla Grewe, 48, of Des Peres. She plans to vote for Wagner because of her work to criminalize the advertisement of sex trafficking online. Wagner’s SAVE Act, signed into law by President Barack Obama, was part of the Justice for Victims of Trafficking Act in 2015. Supporting police is part of those continued efforts, Grewe believes.
“The police are understaffed as it is, so giving them less money doesn’t make sense to me,” said Grewe, who co-owns a real estate business and restaurant with her husband. “I think we should increase funding for the police so they can hire more qualified officers and give them the training, tools and support they need.”
With the national Republican party pouring millions into local television ads, Wagner hopes that her popularity with law-and-order-loving voters will again put her over the top.
“We have a huge crime issue here. Look at the number of murders, the murder rate in St. Louis City,” Wagner said in a recent interview on St. Louis Public Radio’s Politically Speaking podcast.
“My record is one of standing with our police and first responders. My record is one of always having their back.”
