Congressional race in St. Louis suburbs is a toss-up. What about the rest of Missouri?
Missouri hasn’t sent a new member to the U.S. House since 2013, but next year the state will have at least one freshman after St. Louis Democrat Cori Bush ousted long-time Rep. William Lacy Clay in the August primary.
But Bush, who is favored to win the general election in a heavily Democratic district, might have company next year. State Sen. Jill Schupp is mounting a strong challenge to Rep. Ann Wagner in the St. Louis suburbs. And across the state, challengers from both parties are hoping to unseat entrenched incumbents. What are their chances?
Here’s a look at who’s running in each of the state’s eight congressional districts.
The Missouri 2nd
Where’s the race? The St. Louis suburbs.
Who’s running? Four-term Republican Rep. Ann Wagner and Democratic state Sen. Jill Schupp.
Is it competitive? Yes. The race is considered a toss-up and gives Missouri Democrats their best chance of flipping a congressional district. It’s also crucial for Republicans to hold the seat to avoid an expansion of the Democratic House majority.
Why? Wagner, a former state GOP chair and U.S. ambassador to Luxembourg, won re-election by 4 percentage points in 2018, the same year Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill carried the district by nearly 3 points in the U.S. Senate race. McCaskill, now an analyst for MSNBC, summed up the reason for the district’s competitiveness with one word, “Trump.” It’s suburban regions like this one — with a high number of college graduates — that have moved away from the GOP since 2016.
National Democratic groups have reserved roughly $2 million for television ads in the St. Louis market. Schupp, who has had stints in local government and the legislature, has geared her message to winning over moderate voters. Wagner has tried to walk a careful line, supporting President Donald Trump, but also voting for some Democratic legislation. She was one of 26 House Republicans to vote in favor of legislation blocking the Trump administration from pursuing policy changes to the U.S. Postal Service last month.
The Missouri 4th
Where’s the race? The southern portion of the Kansas City area to central Missouri, including Columbia.
Who’s running? Five-term Republican Rep. Vicky Hartzler and Democrat Lindsey Simmons, an attorney who worked for Hartzler’s Democratic predecessor Ike Skelton.
Is it competitive? Possibly — but probably not. Hartzler won re-election by more than 30 percentage points in 2018 and national Democrats are not seriously targeting the seat. Simmons could benefit from a close race for governor since the district will be crucial to Democratic nominee Nicole Galloway’s turnout strategy in her race against Republican Gov. Mike Parson.
Why? When Hartzler was elected in 2010, she was the first Republican to win the district since the 1950s. Redistricting after the 2010 Census helped shore up her hold and the state as a whole has trended more Republican since then. But this is still a district where Democrats need to keep it close if they want to win statewide.
Simmons has promoted her background as a military spouse and sought to capitalize on a controversy involving Hartzler’s family businesses receiving federal COVID-19 relief funds. Her supporters say this is a sleeper race that could become competitive, especially if there is a national Democratic wave. But without resources from the national party, she faces an uphill battle.
The Missouri 5th
Where’s the race? Kansas City’s urban core, Independence and communities east of Kansas City.
Who’s running? Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, eight-term incumbent and former Kansas City mayor, and Republican Ryan Derks.
Is it competitive? No. It could be in a year with a Republican wave, but Democrats are expected to hold and potentially expand their House majority this year. Cleaver is one of the region’s most established politicians and Republicans have not put serious money toward unseating him. As of mid-July, he had more than $780,000 cash on hand compared to a little more than $4,300 for Derks, according to the most recent campaign finance filings.
Why? Derks is running on a hardline conservative platform, which aligns closely with Trump. This is a Democratic-leaning district that is expected to go strongly for former Vice President Joe Biden. The 5th could become more competitive in 2022 when the state draws a new map based on the 2020 Census, but for now it remains a safe Democratic seat.
The Missouri 1st
Where’s the race? St. Louis City and adjacent communities.
Who’s running? Democrat Cori Bush faces Republican Anthony Rogers in the general election after Bush unseated incumbent Democratic Rep. William Lacy Clay in the August primary.
Is it competitive? No. This is the state’s most Democratic-leaning district and Bush is expected to win easily. Her primary win over Lacy Clay, first elected in 2000 after his father held the seat for 32 years, was a seismic upset. The general election won’t be.
Why? Bush is poised to make history as the first Black woman to represent Missouri at the federal level. She also promises to be the most left-leaning member of the state’s delegation. She made her name leading protests for police accountability following Michael Brown’s 2014 death in Ferguson. She supports defunding police departments to redistribute money to social services.
Republicans have repeatedly attacked Bush since her nomination, but their real targets are fellow Democrats Galloway and Schupp. The GOP hopes to drain their support by tying them to Bush’s progressive positions.
The Missouri 6th
Where’s the race? Kansas City’s Northland and northern Missouri.
Who’s running? Republican Rep. Sam Graves, senior member of the House delegation first elected in 2000, and Democrat Gena Ross.
Is it competitive? No. Graves has won re-election by double digits every time and there’s little reason to expect that to change. Ross had raised zero dollars as of mid-July. Graves had more than $780,000, according to campaign finance records.
Why? Ross, who lives in Platte City, has a compelling story. She survived COVID-19, which was exacerbated by her asthma and sent her to the hospital twice this spring. An associate professor of math, science and business technology at Kansas City, Kansas Community College, Ross would join Bush as the first Black woman to represent the state in Congress if elected.
But Graves is a well-established incumbent in a strong GOP district. He is ranking Republican on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee with major influence over road and bridge construction, flood control and other infrastructure matters important to the district.
The Missouri 7th
Where’s the race? Southwestern Missouri, including Springfield and Joplin.
Who’s running? Five-term Republican Rep. Billy Long and Democrat Teresa Montseny, who earlier this month said that she was “stepping out of the race” because of health and family issues. She missed the deadline to remove her name from the ballot and be replaced with another candidate.
Is it competitive? Even before Montseny’s decision to step back, Long had an easy road to re-election in one of the most Republican-leaning districts in the state.
Why? Long has won every general election since 2010 by more than 30 percentage points. There’s no reason to think that the long-time auctioneer, who hands out fake 45-dollar notes with Trump’s face at campaign events, won’t put up similar numbers in a presidential year.
The Missouri 3rd
Where’s the race? The edge of metro St. Louis to central Missouri, including Jefferson City.
Who’s running? Six-term Republican Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer and Democrat Megan Rezabek.
Is it competitive? No. Rezabek pulled off a surprise primary win over Warren County Democratic chair Dennis Ogelsby despite not actively campaigning. Since then her activity has been minimal. She has not even filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission.
Why? Even if Rezabek were waging an active campaign, this is a solidly Republican district that Luetkemeyer won by more than 30 percentage points in 2018. He has voted with Trump 97% of the time, the highest rate in the Missouri delegation.
Rezabek’s campaign site identifies her as a mother of two and as a member of the Sunrise Movement, who supports the Green New Deal, but offers little biographical information.
The Missouri 8th
Where’s the race? Southeast Missouri, including the Bootheel.
Who’s running? Four-term Republican Rep. Jason Smith and Democrat Kathy Ellis, who he beat by 49 percentage points in 2018.
Is this race competitive? Absolutely not. This is the most Republican-leaning district in the state. Smith won by a massive margin in 2018, when Democrats gained seats nationally.
Why? Smith has run up the score every election, but his biggest victory margin came in 2016 when Trump was on the ballot and he won by nearly 52 percentage points. He might have a chance to break his own record this year.
This story was originally published September 29, 2020 at 1:07 PM with the headline "Congressional race in St. Louis suburbs is a toss-up. What about the rest of Missouri?."
