Which Democrats have traction in KS governor, Senate races? What new poll shows
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Change Research poll shows Cindy Holscher leading with 31% among likely Democratic voters.
- Corson outraised Holscher $902,641 to $397,952 in 2025 but trailed at 8% in the poll.
- 55% of respondents to the governor poll initially reported being undecided.
In recent campaign communications, all three Democrats running to become the next governor of Kansas have cited internal data professing themselves to be leading their primary competition.
What the race has lacked up to this point is an independent assessment of the candidates’ support. But a new poll commissioned by the Capitol Bee political news outlet and conducted by Change Research surveyed 1,022 likely Democratic voters on their preferences.
It suggests that Overland Park Sen. Cindy Holscher holds a decisive lead, despite the fact that 55% of people who responded to the poll from June 11-15 reported being undecided.
Thirty-one percent of respondents initially said they plan to support Holscher, compared to 8% for Sen. Ethan Corson and 5% for Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog, who jumped into the race on June 1, the day of the filing deadline.
When respondents were pressed on which way they were leaning, Holscher’s support rose to 37%, Corson’s to 10% and Skoog’s to 7%. According to Change Research’s methodology statement, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
“Holscher is up. Is she up by twenty-five plus? We don’t know. But it looks like she’s up among those who have an opinion,” said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University. He said it would be irresponsible to put too much stock in one poll, though.
Of the respondents who provided demographic information, 84% were white and 16% were non-white. Sixty-four percent were women and 36% were men.
Madi Ashcroft, Holscher’s campaign manager, said the data shows that her message is resonating with voters across the state.
“While others are focused on maintaining the status quo, Cindy is focused on delivering results and putting people first,” Ashcroft said. “We’re going to continue earning every vote and building the campaign needed to beat the MAGA nominee in November.”
Corson, who has been endorsed by term-limited Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, outraised Holscher $902,641 to $397,952 in 2025, campaign finance records show. His campaign shrugged off the unflattering survey data.
“A poll is a snapshot in time, especially when fielded prior to a nearly million dollar ad buy spanning multiple media markets,” spokesperson Glynnis Harvey said in a statement. “Ethan Corson is the only candidate with the resources needed to win in both August and November, having outraised the nearest competitor two-to-one in the last reporting period.”
Beatty said there’s truth to the argument that campaign spending down the stretch could still reshape voters’ opinions of candidates before the August 4 primary.
“Corson camp is correct in that the advertising could very much change the dynamics of the race,” Beatty said. “That being said, just like in sports, it’s always better to be ahead than behind.”
The Skoog campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
U.S. Senate race polling
The Change Research survey also asked likely Democratic voters who they favor in the crowded field of candidates hoping to challenge first-term Republican U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall in November.
Combining respondents with a preferred candidate and those who leaned towards one, 55% of people still reported being unsure who they will vote for.
Of those who have made up their mind or lean towards a candidate, 18% indicated support for the Rev. Adam Hamilton and 10% favored former Biden USDA official Christy Davis.
Six other candidates combined to earn 16% of support from the remaining survey respondents.
“Those numbers make perfect sense to me,” Beatty said.
He pointed to national publicity that Hamilton received while publicly toying with the idea of a Senate bid and the $2 million that his campaign reported raising within 15 days of announcing.
“Let’s say he allocates forty-five percent of that for the primary,” Beatty said. “All anybody’s going to be seeing is Adam Hamilton (advertisement). His competitors simply don’t have the money.”
In a statement, Davis said she was heartened by the polling — both the support she received and the suggestion that a high proportion of primary voters still haven’t decided who to back.
“I am very confident with our campaign and where we are right now, closely behind Adam Hamilton,” Davis said. “These numbers prove that this race is something Kansans are still engaging in and that it will not be decided by money or celebrity status.”
A spokesperson for Hamilton welcomed the survey results and said Republicans are scared about him matching up with Marshall, invoking speculation that a 2025 Kansas law could be used to delay the election for two years.
“Kansans know Rev. Adam Hamilton is the best candidate to take on Roger Marshall and win,” Tyson Brody said. “That’s why the KS GOP is so worried they’re trying to jettison Marshall, cancel the election and even talking about taking away Kansans right to directly elect senators.”
State Sen. Patrick Schmidt earned 7% of respondents’ support in the poll.
“With 55% of Kansas Democrats still undecided, this race is wide open, and that’s good news for our campaign,” said Schmidt’s campaign manager, Ryon Carey.
Attorney Anne Parelkar and Army veteran Noah Taylor each earned 3% support in the poll. Real estate developer Erik Murray slotted in behind them with 2% and retired corporate executive Sandy Spidel-Neumann secured support from 1% of respondents.
Four other Democrats in the race — Jason Hart, Michael Soetaert, Kevin Latz and Damon Anderson — were left out of the survey.
