Who’s the frontrunner in Democratic primary for Kansas governor? Experts weigh in
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Gov. Laura Kelly has publicly backed Sen. Ethan Corson in the primary.
- Corson outraised Cindy Holscher $902,641 to $397,952 in 2025 campaign finance reports.
- Kansas political scientists say the three-way primary is hard to predict without polls.
From a raised podium inside the rustic timber-framed event center of the last working stagecoach stop on the Santa Fe Trail, Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly made the ask: “Trust me one more time.”
In her eighth and final year on the job, the term-limited moderate Democrat hasn’t shied away from a bruising primary fight to decide who her party will nominate to succeed her.
She’s backing Sen. Ethan Corson of Fairway, as evidenced by the “Women for Ethan” sign that served as her backdrop at the Tuesday evening campaign event in Olathe, where she followed the president of Planned Parenthood Great Plains.
“He is uniquely qualified to be the steady hand that will be needed in the governor’s office in the uncertain and challenging times ahead,” Kelly said of her chosen successor.
But two months out from the August primary, it remains to be seen whether the mobilization of Kelly’s political operation for Corson will help propel him to the Democratic nomination.
He faces stiff competition in the form of fellow Johnson County Sen. Cindy Holscher of Overland Park, who has generated enthusiasm among the progressive wing of the party. And the eleventh-hour addition of Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog on the day of the candidate filing deadline, over Kelly’s objection, served to further complicate the race.
Senate President Ty Masterson’s frontrunner status in the GOP primary was secured with an endorsement from President Donald Trump. But Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt and Secretary of State Scott Schwab remain in the race, along with Johnson County entrepreneur Philip Sarnecki and several other lesser-known candidates.
Without any independent polling in the governor race, three Kansas-based political science professors told The Star that it’s difficult to predict who will emerge victorious in the three-way Democratic contest — although they agreed Skoog’s fundraising deficit puts him at a distinct disadvantage.
“We’re kind of left with just how much money the campaigns are raising as a sense of support and the fact that the governor’s endorsed candidate doesn’t seem to be the presumptive nominee or anything like that,” said Don Haider-Markel, a political science professor at the University of Kansas. “I think it’s going to be a tight race.”
Corson outraised Holscher $902,641 to $397,952 in 2025, campaign finance records show. Haider-Markel said he believes Holscher is a strong contender, though.
“She is not just well-known but also quite popular, which helps to make it a very competitive race,” Haider-Markel said. “Now that the Overland Park mayor is jumping into the race, it’s not clear to me who he would automatically take votes away from.”
Kansas governor hopefuls square off
The two competitive primaries stand in stark contrast to the 2022 gubernatorial race, when Kelly, the incumbent, and then-Attorney General Derek Schmidt cruised to their respective parties’ nominations.
“Some Dems often don’t like primaries in Kansas as they think it wastes resources needed for general — but a competitive primary is good for the eventual party winner as they have to face the GOP nominee in the fall and need to sharpen their skills and messaging in the primary,” said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University.
“Kelly certainly was a better candidate against Kris Kobach (in 2018) after having to debate her Democratic opponents,” he said.
In her first run, Kelly was buoyed by the endorsement of former Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. She ultimately won a five-way primary with 51% of the vote.
“It’s always helpful in these primaries to be able to test each other and to make sure that when we get to the general election, our candidates are ready,” said Kansas Democratic Party Chair Jeanna Repass, who added that all three candidates have the “competence and experience” to lead the state.
Alexandra Middlewood, a political science professor at Wichita State University, said Kelly’s endorsement of Corson shouldn’t be underestimated, considering 2025 polling that suggests Kelly is still the most popular politician in the state.
“Ethan Corson has really followed that Laura Kelly messaging of very moderate, very center-of-the-road — and that matters in elections here in Kansas still,” Middlewood said.
“That is not to say that Cindy Holscher hasn’t got a lot of support from citizens of Kansas,” she said. “If you are following either one of them on social media, you see lots of Holscher supporters. But also, social media doesn’t vote.”
Skoog met with Kelly last week to discuss his ambitions before entering the race. On Monday, Kelly issued a blistering statement, characterizing the last-minute entrance as “opportunistic” and “foolhardy.”
Haider-Markel said Kelly’s inability to keep Skoog out of the race raises questions about whether she remains in command of the party that she has helmed for the better part of a decade.
“I don’t think the average voter is going to pay that much attention, but again, this is a primary election, and the people who tend to turn out tend to be those people who do really follow politics closely,” Haider-Markel said. “So I think the back-and-forth and sort of who’s endorsing who and who has relationships with who, are important to Democratic primary voters.”
