Why Johnson County voters are key to breaking Republicans’ grip on Kansas Legislature
Kansas Democrats believe their path to breaking the Republican stronghold in the Legislature runs through Johnson County, where flipping a handful of seats would hand Gov. Laura Kelly leverage that’s eluded her for the past six years.
This November, each of the state’s 125 House seats and 40 Senate seats are on the ballot. Republicans are comfortably in power, but they have razor-thin margins for preserving veto-proof supermajorities in both chambers. Kansas requires two-thirds support in both chambers to override vetoes.
Democrats are aiming to pick up at least two seats in the House and three in the Senate. Achieving either would eliminate Republicans’ ability to override the governor’s veto on a party-line vote and would strengthen Kelly’s hand as she negotiates on key policy priorities including Medicaid expansion.
Kansas is one of nine states the national Democrats are prioritizing in their $10 million push to win seats in statehouses across the country. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the arm of the party that works on state legislative races, is targeting 10 Kansas races, including five in Johnson County.
“We’ve seen the Republican supermajority time and time again override Gov. Kelly’s veto power, and we’re just a handful of seats away from breaking the supermajority and restoring her veto power, which would fundamentally shift what the balance of power looks like in Kansas,” DLCC spokesperson Samantha Paisley told The Star.
The emphasis on Johnson County is a calculated one. Voters in Kansas’ wealthiest and most populous county have trended towards Democrats in recent cycles.
In 2022, Kelly beat Republican Derek Schmidt by 20 percentage points there on her way to reelection, and voters rejected the amendment that would have removed the right to an abortion from the Kansas Constitution by 37 percentage points.
“We know that voters are on the side of having their fundamental freedoms protected and seeing an end to the MAGA agenda through Johnson County, so that’s why we see it as absolutely crucial to breaking the Republican supermajority this cycle,” Paisley said.
Voter turnout is usually at its highest in presidential election years, which could benefit either party at the state level depending on how candidates perform with key constituencies.
Kansas Democrats are also urging voters to turn out in force to elect lawmakers who will protect reproductive rights, prevent further legislation targeting transgender Kansans and give 150,000 more people access to health care through Medicaid expansion.
Senate President Ty Masterson said Republicans are confident they can defend districts in Johnson County and pick up new seats across Kansas through socially and fiscally conservative messaging to voters.
“Johnson County is of course vital, and so are other areas of the state, and our map is expanding by the day,” Masterson said in a text statement. “We are very optimistic about not only defending but expanding our Republican supermajority.”
Key races
Democrats are hoping to flip as many as three Johnson County senate seats currently held by Republicans. They’re also focused on two House districts there — one they hope to pick up and another that Democratic state representative Allison Hougland is defending in Olathe.
Hougland, a realtor, was first elected to the House in 2022. She’s up against Lauren Bohi, an administrative assistant at pediatric behavioral health clinic KidsTLC.
House District 39 includes Shawnee, Lake Quivira and parts of Bonner Springs. Democratic challenger Vanessa Vaughn West is running against Angela Stiens, the Republican appointed to serve the remainder of Owen Donohoe’s term after he abruptly resigned earlier this year.
Stiens is an occupational therapist who kept her seat on the Shawnee City Council after being appointed to the statehouse. West, who also lives in Shawnee, works as director of diversity and inclusion at a Kansas City law firm.
In Senate District 10, Democrat Andrew Mall is attempting to unseat Mike Thompson, who was a longtime TV meteorologist in Kansas City before his election in 2020 to represent Shawnee, Lake Quivira and part of Lenexa. Mall is a former president of the Kansas Association of Realtors.
Republican incumbent Kellie Warren, an attorney, is seeking re-election to Senate District 11 against fellow attorney Karen Thurlow. District 11 includes eastern parts of Leawood and Overland Park.
Republican Robert Olsen isn’t running for a fourth term in Senate District 23, which covers much of Olathe in south-central Johnson County. That means Democratic challenger Stacey Knoell is up against state representative Adam Thomas, who works in restaurants when the Legislature is out of session. Knoell, a former public school teacher, currently serves as executive director of Gov. Kelly’s Kansas African American Affairs Commission.
“Obviously, money is going to have to be spent but quality candidates comes first, and it does look like the Democrats have done that. They have viable candidates in all the districts that they’re trying to turn around,” said Bob Beatty, chair of the political science department at Washburn University.
“I do think that gaining seats in Johnson County is very possible . . . But the second part of the equation is, Democrats also need to hold some seats, and those are not necessarily in Johnson County, so that’s a challenge.”
Masterson pointed to Senate seats held by Democratic incumbents Jeff Pittman in Leavenworth and Usha Reddi in Riley County as examples of districts he believes are in play for Republicans. They’re also hoping to oust perennially vulnerable Democratic state representative Jason Probst in a competitive Hutchinson district.
What’s at stake?
Beatty said the fate of the veto-proof supermajority in Kansas will come down to “about five races in each chamber.” Television ads have already hit the airwaves in Johnson County and other key districts.
“There’s going to be a lot of money on both sides spent in those races, and that’s a bit of a difference from previous years that the Democratic side has more resources than in previous years to spend in those specific districts,” Beatty said.
Gov. Kelly’s Middle of the Road PAC raised $1 million to spend on breaking supermajorities this year, and Kansans for a Democratic Senate, a PAC created by former U.S. Senate candidate Barbara Bollier, is paying for ads in Johnson County races. On the Republican side, the Kansas Chamber PAC is running ads in swing districts.
In a year with a presidential election, Beatty said Kansas voters shouldn’t lose sight of what’s at stake down-ballot. Breaking the Republican supermajorities in just one chamber would be “a game-changer” for Kelly, he said.
“In terms of negotiating and using her political capital, she could concentrate on bargaining and negotiating from a much stronger position,” Beatty said. “If the supermajority is not a factor, then there’s more room for actual compromise on a much wider variety of bills and initiatives.”
Republicans would be forced to work with Kelly or risk having their legislation killed. As it stands, conservatives have the numbers to avoid votes on Medicaid expansion, marijuana reform and other priorities Kelly may push for in her final two years as governor.
“It’s just practical politics,” Beatty said. “With a supermajority, they don’t have to negotiate.”
This story was originally published September 26, 2024 at 1:32 PM.
