Competing internal polls show tight Senate race between Marshall, Bollier in Kansas
The U.S. Senate race between Kansas Republican Rep. Roger Marshall and Democrat Barbara Bollier is within single digits, according to a pair of internal polls obtained by The Kansas City Star.
The surveys disagree about which candidate holds the narrow lead, but both place the contest within the margin of error.
Marshall holds a 4 percentage point lead over Democrat Barbara Bollier in the race for U.S. Senate and is underperforming with Republican voters, according to a poll paid for by the Keep Kansas Great PAC, a political action committee that supports Marshall.
Marshall leads Bollier 43% to 39%, in a survey of 794 likely voters conducted Sept. 15 and 16. Another 2% opted for Libertarian, while 16% were undecided.
It’s the first Republican poll released since Marshall won the hotly-contested GOP primary in August. The results appear to weaken Republican contentions that the Kansas seat became safe from flipping when Marshall won the GOP nomination over rival Kris Kobach.
The poll also asked respondents to say whether they prefer a Republican or a Democrat for U.S. Senate. Bollier, a state senator from Mission Hills, matches the generic Democrat exactly at 39 %, but Marshall’s total is 10 percentage points below the generic Republican at 53%.
“Marshall is significantly underperforming other key metrics like the generic ballot and Presidential ballot. He has significant room to grow particularly with general election Republican voters,” states the internal polling memo, obtained by The Kansas City Star.
The poll was conducted by the Kansas City-based firm co/Efficient. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, which applies to both candidates’ scores.
The PAC’s polling memo attributes Marshall’s relatively weak numbers to some Republicans being unfamiliar with the western Kansas congressman.
Eric Pahls, Marshall’s campaign manager, also pointed to the attack ads Marshall faced during the brutal GOP primary as a reason his percentage is below a generic Republican. He contended Bollier’s numbers will fall as Kansas voters learn more about her record.
“Dr. Marshall has taken on nearly $15M in attack ads that started months ago, and still maintains the lead in this race. He has the momentum, and that will continue,” Pahls said in an email late Tuesday.
Bollier’s campaign responded to a question about the Republican poll by releasing its own internal numbers.
Bollier leads Marshall 45% to 43%, according to a survey of 600 likely voters conducted between Sept. 24 and 27. The poll found 7 % of voters supporting Libertarian Jason Buckley, a result which would be several points higher than any Libertarian has received in a statewide Kansas election in recent years.
The Democrat’s lead falls within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The poll was conducted by Washington-based GBAO strategies. The polling memo states that Bollier has “more cross-party and moderate support” than Marshall.
Both polls line up closely with surveys released by progressive groups last month, which showed Marshall’s lead within the margin of error. An August poll paid for by EMILY’s List, a group which supports Bollier, gave Marshall a 1-point lead.
Marshall, a two-term congressman, has sought to closely align with President Donald Trump during the campaign, but the poll finds him underperforming the president.
The Keep Kansas Great PAC poll found that Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden 53 % to 41 % in the state, which favored Trump by more than 20 percentage points in 2016.
Travis Smith, a consultant for the PAC, said the poll shows that Marshall is still in the process of introducing himself to voters outside of his western Kansas district.
“Roger will win, he just needs to sprint through the tape, as he is currently doing. People forget he’s introducing himself right now to the general electorate in parts of the state for the very first time,” Smith said in an email. “His opponent had a healthy head start on time and money.”
The polling memo said Bollier “appears to be hitting her ceiling with little room to grow,” but contends that Marshall will be able to boost his numbers by tying himself to Trump and linking Bollier to Biden.
The poll was weighted for age, gender, education, political party and geography, according the memo.
Patrick Miller, a political scientist at the University of Kansas who studies polling, cautioned against weighing by political party as opposed to only demographic information, such as age, race and gender.
However, he said the PAC’s poll, like previous surveys, shows that it is a close race.
“Bollier needs Trump ticket splitters to win. Beyond that, I wouldn’t infer much from the cheerleading commentary here in the memo. Marshall probably has an easier path to winning, but you can also see the Bollier path, even if she has the taller task,” Miller said.
Miller said the two polls don’t actually disagree since both show the contest within the margin of error.
A third poll in the race was released late Wednesday by the Daily Kos, a liberal politics site.
Marshall led Bollier 50% to 43%, according to the survey of 677 likely conducted from Sept. 26 to 29. The poll, conducted by California-based Civiqs, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
The poll did not refer to Buckley, the Libertarian candidate, by name and instead gave respondents the choice of “someone else,” which drew 2% support.
The Senate results in the Daily Kos poll closely align with the presidential race with Trump leading Biden 52% to 42% in the state.
This story was originally published September 30, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
