Geography and money will be key as Marshall and Bollier vie for Senate seat in Kansas
Republican Rep. Roger Marshall defeated former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach in Tuesday’s GOP Senate primary by dominating Wichita and his political home base of western Kansas.
The results suggest Democratic nominee Barbara Bollier faces a steep challenge in limiting Marshall’s support in the state’s largest city. Staying competitive in Wichita is likely crucial for Bollier to have a shot at becoming the first Kansas Democrat to serve in the U.S. Senate since the 1930s.
Both sides scrambled Wednesday to set the terms of the fight. Republicans had expected a close primary race, but Marshall instead easily dispatched Kobach on Tuesday night.
“I think we’ll have the resources to protect our fort and build out our territory,” Marshall said in an interview Wednesday. “Tell our story of a fifth generation farm kid who became a first generation college student … I think when we share that story it resonates.”
But Marshall, a Great Bend OB-GYN, received softer support in the Kansas City area, offering Bollier a potential weakness to exploit.
Bollier, a state senator and retired anesthesiologist from Mission Hills, said Tuesday voters want someone with “common sense and a voice of reason.” She moved swiftly Wednesday to intensify her outreach to Republicans, releasing a new ad with Tom Moxley, a former Republican state lawmaker and rancher from Council Grove in central Kansas.
“I have never voted for a Democrat for U.S. Senate in my lifetime,” Moxley says in the ad. “But I’m going to vote for Barbara Bollier.”
Bollier, who didn’t face a competitive primary, has been a fundraising machine. She has set records for Kansas Democrats and her campaign said Tuesday she is heading into the general election with $4.5 million on hand compared to Marshall’s roughly $1 million as of mid-July.
“After an expensive and bruising primary, Marshall will face a formidable opponent in Dr. Barbara Bollier, who has been building a strong grassroots campaign, a broad coalition of support, and a massive resource advantage for the general election,” said Helen Kalla, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of Senate Democrats.
Still, Republicans believe their party, which holds a significant registration advantage over Democrats, will quickly unite around Marshall.
“As of today Barbara Bollier has a lot more money than Roger Marshall does, but Roger Marshall has a lot more voters. It is much easier for Roger Marshall to get a lot more money in the next 90 days than it is for Barbara Bollier to get a lot more voters. And the person who finishes with the most voters wins,” said David Kensinger, who has managed statewide campaigns for Sen. Pat Roberts and former Gov. Sam Brownback.
With all precincts reporting, Marshall had 40% of the vote to Kobach’s 26%. Advance mail-in ballots may trickle in the rest of the week, but Marshall’s margin of victory was greater than the number of ballots that may be received.
Statewide, Marshall won 158,486 votes as of Tuesday in the 11-candidate GOP primary, deflecting super PACs and rival campaigns that spent millions in attacks ads. Bollier won 152,891 votes in a Democratic primary rout against an opponent, Robert Tillman, who spent less than $3,200 in the race.
Marshall won every county but one west of Emporia, taking some with an outright majority. In Sedgwick County, where Wichita is located, he trounced Kobach 47 percent to 26 percent.
“If you look at that map, west of Topeka is Marshall country,” Marshall said. “I think we’re the favorite, but we’re going to have to have a good plan and execute it really well.”
Marshall won Johnson County, the state’s most populous, but by a narrower margin: 33% to Kobach’s 25%. He lost Wyandotte County and most other eastern counties.
The weaker GOP support for the congressman in those areas may offer Democrats an opportunity. But many Kobach supporters will still likely show up in November to vote for Marshall. Bollier will also have to work to limit Marshall’s support in Sedgwick County.
Chris Pumpelly, a Wichita-based Democratic consultant, said Bollier will have to follow Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s model and invest time and resources in the Wichita area. Kelly, previously a Topeka state senator, won the governor’s office in 2018 in part by winning Sedgwick County.
“To be successful, Sen. Bollier has to follow the path that has already been established, investing in Sedgwick County, driving out turnout in Democratic areas and Democratic women,” said Pumpelly, who worked on Wichita Mayor Brandon Whipple’s successful 2019 campaign. “I’m confident her team has the experience and wisdom to do that.”
He said Bollier’s message focused on the pandemic will resonate in Wichita.
“I think that Wichitans, especially, are feeling a lot of the pain of what’s going on in the economy with our aviation taking a hit,” he said. “What Dr. Bollier needs to do is speak in the language of authenticity … of compassion.”
The Kansas Democratic Party on Wednesday previewed how it plans to attack Marshall this fall, releasing a memo labeling the race a “contest between polar opposites.” It highlights Marshall’s health care voting record and accuses him of failing to protect Kansas farmers during the United States’ trade war with China — suggesting Democrats will try to cut into Marshall’s rural support.
Republicans will mine Bollier’s voting record for lines of attack. Kobach told reporters before polls closed Tuesday that while Bollier will paint herself as a moderate former Republican, she has taken a “radically left” position on many issues. He called her “radically pro-abortion.”
“So the task for Republicans is going to be very quickly to educate voters about her votes. It’s a very issue-based campaign, not a personal attack,” Kobach said.
Bollier said she will always support the right of people to have a private physician-patient relationship. Legislators don’t belong in that relationship, she said.
“I also have always represented my constituents well and that’s why they kept electing me. So his word choice wouldn’t ring true,” Bollier said. “I have been about the majority of the people and what they’ve wanted in the state.”
This story was originally published August 5, 2020 at 1:02 PM.
