Missing audience and muted mics: Will Biden or Trump benefit from new debate rules?

For the first time in four years, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will go toe-to-toe on the debate stage. But this time, a handful of new rules will be in place.

These rules, agreed to by both campaigns, could play to the advantage of one or both candidates, political and communication experts told McClatchy News.

Set to be hosted by CNN on Thursday, June 27 in Atlanta, the debate will not feature a live audience, departing from a decades-long tradition. The only other presidential debate not to include a studio audience was the first-ever televised debate, between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960.

The upcoming war of words, scheduled to last 90 minutes, will also see the microphones muted except when it is a candidate’s turn to speak.

Additionally, the candidates will not be allowed to speak with their staff during the two commercial breaks. And no props or notes will be allowed on stage, except for pads of paper, pens and bottled water, which will be provided.

Several of these rules, including the empty studio and muted microphones, were proposed by the Biden campaign in May, when it announced the president would not participate in debates hosted by the Commission on Presidential Debates.

The new rules will likely assist Biden more than Trump, political experts said. But, it’s also possible Trump could leverage them to serve his interests.

Missing audience

“I think on the whole the lack of a studio audience will benefit President Biden,” Susan Ohmer, a professor of modern communication at the University of Notre Dame, told McClatchy News.

Trump has “become accustomed to drawing energy from an enthusiastic crowd,” Ohmer added. “The quiet of an empty studio won’t provide that kind of reinforcement. Also, if Mr. Trump makes his points loudly it may come off as belligerent in that kind of space.”

In past debates, Trump has, at times, garnered loud responses from the crowd. For example, in a 2016 debate with Hillary Clinton, audience members erupted in applause when he said Clinton would be jailed under his administration.

“Trump’s brand is rule-breaker, and crowds are his oxygen,” Martin Kaplan, a professor of communication at the University of Southern California, told McClatchy News.

However, Biden could also be negatively impacted by the lack of audience, though to a lesser extent, Ohmer said.

“We saw in his State of the Union speech how he threw out one-liners in response to catcalls from the Congress, so he, too, benefits from the energy of an audience,” Ohmer said.

During his March State of the Union address, Biden responded to interruptions from Republican members of Congress on the subject of his proposed border security bill.

“Oh, you don’t like that bill, huh? That conservatives got together and said it was a good bill? I’ll be darned,” Biden said.

Still, Ohmer said, Biden would likely be well served by “being able to focus in a low-key space.”

Muted microphones

Muting the microphones, a tactic used to a limited extent in 2020, is also likely to serve Biden more than Trump, experts said.

“The muted mics may benefit Biden, since Trump likes to talk over his opponent,” Candice Nelson, a professor of government at American University, told McClatchy News.

However, it’s likely that — muted or not — Trump will speak out of turn, Ohmer said.

“So the real question will be how Jake Tapper and Dana Bash (the CNN moderators) handle his ignoring the muted mike (microphone). Will they remind him? Interrupt him?” Ohmer said.

It’s also possible that Trump will use the controlled microphones to play against perceptions that he is unruly, Robert Shapiro, a professor of government at Columbia University, told McClatchy News.

“He and his advisors could see this as a way to behave in a more subdued and statesman-like way … and avoid his potential craziness,” Shapiro said.

No huddling with their staff

The new rule stating candidates will not be able to huddle with their campaign staff during commercial breaks will likely be of little consequence, experts said.

“I don’t think the inability to talk to staff during the breaks will affect either candidate,” Nelson said. “Both have done extensive debate preparation with their staff prior to the debate.”

The prohibition on speaking with their teams seems “inconsequential,” Shapiro said.

Takeaways

Ultimately, “the most important beneficiary (of the new rules) is the American people,” Kaplan said. “The live audience and snarky interruptions of the past added entertainment value, but they drained the event of gravitas and trivialized its stakes.”

But whether the new rules will make a measurable difference in the outcome of the election “is anyone’s guess,” Kaplan added.

“What political science research does tell us is that debates do not typically move the needle very much,” Stephen Craig, a professor of political science at the University of Florida, told McClatchy News. “And even when there is some movement in the short term (as with the first [Barack] Obama-[Mitt] Romney debate in 2012), it is often short-lived.”

The strong partisan divisions throughout the country indicate that the Biden-Trump debate may not, at the end of the day, have a large impact on voter preferences, Craig said.

This story was originally published June 25, 2024 at 12:52 PM with the headline "Missing audience and muted mics: Will Biden or Trump benefit from new debate rules?."