All but 10 Missouri counties at COVID ‘tipping point’ ahead of Christmas, data show
Daily COVID-19 cases have reached a “tipping point” in most Missouri counties with Christmas just over a week away, according to data from Harvard University.
Researchers are using a color-coded map to display the risk of COVID-19 transmission across states, counties and congressional districts in the U.S. A region’s color is determined by its seven-day average of daily cases per 100,000 people.
Green represents the lowest risk level and indicates a region is “on track for containment.” Yellow is a step up in COVID-19 risk and indicates that “community spread” is occurring. Next is orange, which indicates “accelerated spread” in the region. The highest risk level is red, which researchers call the “tipping point.”
Ahead of Thanksgiving, all but one of Missouri’s 114 counties was in the red zone, McClatchy News previously reported. According to data from Dec. 15, the most recent data available as of Thursday, risk levels have improved in several counties with 10 falling from the red zone into the orange ”accelerated spread” zone.
McDonald — the lone county not in the red zone leading up to Thanksgiving — is now in the “tipping point” range.
Missouri counties with the lowest risk
Cedar, Clark, Clay, Dallas, Hickory, Knox, Lewis, Newton, Platte and Putnam counties are all in the orange zone for COVID-19 risk.
Cedar County is in western Missouri and has the lowest COVID-19 risk in the state, data show. Its seven-day average of daily new cases per 100,000 people is 13.9. It has logged 473 cases of coronavirus since the onset of the pandemic and eight deaths.
Lewis County, in the northeastern corner of the state, has the next lowest risk, according to data. It added an average 17.5 daily cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people over a seven-day span. It’s had 486 cases since the pandemic began and two deaths.
Newton County is in southwest Missouri and has the third-lowest COVID risk in the state, data show. It averaged 17.7 daily new cases per 100,000 people over seven days. It’s logged 3,186 coronavirus cases and 40 deaths since the onset of the pandemic.
Missouri counties with the highest risk
All other counties in the state are in the red zone.
Pettis County — home to Sedalia and roughly 90 miles east of Kansas City — has the highest COVID-19 risk in the state, with a seven-day average of 148.5 cases per 100,000 residents, data show. It’s had 3,588 cases of coronavirus since the pandemic began and 47 deaths.
Howell County in south-central Missouri has the next highest risk, according to data. It added an average 143.2 daily cases per 100,000 people over a seven-day span, data show. It’s logged a total 2,093 coronavirus cases and 35 deaths.
Gentry County is in northern Missouri and has the third-highest COVID-19 risk, data show. It had a seven-day average of 104.4 daily cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people. It’s logged 536 total cases since the onset of the pandemic and 15 deaths, data show.
What about Missouri’s largest cities?
Jackson County, home to Kansas City, is in the red zone averaging 58.6 daily cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people over a seven-day span, data show.
The Kansas City metropolitan area, encompassing multiple counties in Missouri and Kansas, neared 1,200 total COVID-19 deaths on Dec. 16, The Kansas City Star reported. The seven-day rolling average for new cases in the Kansas City metro dropped to 966 on Wednesday, compared to 1,054 the week before.
The city of St. Louis is also in the red zone, but faring slightly better. Its seven-day average was 37.8 daily coronavirus cases per 100,000 people, data show. Neighboring St. Louis County, home to several suburbs, averaged 48.6 daily cases per 100,000 people over the same time span.
Looking ahead to Christmas
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease specialist, is urging Americans to avoid traveling for Christmas after a surge in cases following Thanksgiving, the Washington Post reported.
“We have a big problem,” Fauci told the newspaper. “Look at the numbers — the numbers are really quite dramatic.”
The United States added a record 247,000 cases on Wednesday as well as a record 3,600 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends only gathering for the holidays with people in your household. It added that risk for contracting COVID-19 can increase due to community case levels, exposure during travel, the location and length of gatherings and the behaviors of loved ones both before and during gatherings.
Anyone who has been diagnosed with COVID-19, has symptoms, is awaiting test results or is at risk of serious illness due to COVID-19 is advised to avoid gathering with people who do not live in their household, the CDC said.
If you are hosting a gathering, the CDC recommends ensuring there’s room to social distance and encourages hosts to hold the gathering outside if possible. If inside, increase ventilation by opening windows and doors if weather allows or setting central air and heating on continuous circulation.
Guests should wear masks and avoid singing or shouting while inside, the CDC said.
Christmas also approaches as the first Americans receive doses the COVID-19 vaccine. Pfizer and Moderna hope to have a collective 40 million doses on the market in the U.S. by the end of the month, CNN reported.
This story was originally published December 17, 2020 at 1:23 PM.