Map shows Kansas has ‘uncontrolled spread’ of COVID-19; Missouri ‘trending poorly’
A group of public health and crisis experts tracking each state’s COVID-19 response has created a map that shows Kansas is experiencing “uncontrolled spread” of the virus while Missouri is “trending poorly.”
The map, based on the White House’s criteria that each region or state should satisfy before proceeding to a phased re-opening, is published at covidexitstrategy.org and provides statistics for each state.
Kansas was one of 18 states that were designated with the color “Bruised Red,” which indicated uncontrolled spread. Meanwhile, Missouri was one of 12 states designated with the color “Red,” which indicated states that were trending poorly.
The map measures and scores each state based on criteria that includes its 14-day trend of coronavirus positive cases based on a 7-day rolling average, ICU capacity, hospital bed capacity and percent of positive testing, among others.
The website previously used a color scheme of green, yellow and red to grade the states. Last week the website added a fourth, worse category labeled “Bruised Red.”
“There were extremes that were not captured in our original scale,” the website says. “Our scale also has been adjusted to put more weight on ‘new cases per million’ and ‘positivity.’”
The non-partisan group that created the map includes experts with experience working at the White House, U.S. Department of Health and Human Service and on the Ebola epidemic in West Africa.
Harvard Global Health map
A similar COVID-19 map calculates risk levels by looking at daily cases per 100,000, based on a 7-day rolling average.
The map, launched by a network of research, policy and public health experts convened by Harvard’s Global Health Institute and Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics, shows if a county or state is in the green, yellow, orange or red risk level.
Those levels are based on the number of new daily cases, and the map offers broad guidance based on those conditions.
The experts who helped launch the map come from the Rockefeller Foundation, CovidActNow, Covid-Local and Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.
In this map, Kansas fell in the orange COVID risk level, which indicated that there was accelerated spread of the disease and that stay-at-home orders and/or rigorous test and trace programs were advised.
Missouri fell in the yellow risk level, which indicated that community spread was occurring and that rigorous test and trace programs were advised.
Kansas City area
Health officials in the Kansas City region on Monday reported an additional 186 confirmed cases of the coronavirus and two more deaths across the metropolitan area.
Monday marked the 22nd day in a row where triple-digit increases in new daily cases were reported across the metro, which encompasses Johnson and Wyandotte counties in Kansas and Kansas City, Jackson, Clay and Platte counties in Missouri.
The seven-day rolling average for new cases in the metro has risen to 287. One week ago, it was 239. On July 1, it was 204.
Physicians at the University of Kansas Health System reported 24 patients at the hospital being treated for COVID-19, an increase of two since Friday. Ten are in the intensive care unit, up from seven last week.
“We have had discharges and admissions, but overall the positive hospitalizations is going up so the number is going up compared to where we were,” said Dana Hawkinson, medical director of infection prevention and control at the health system.
Last week, the hospital was averaging 16 to 20 patients, he said.
In total, the virus has infected 11,614 of the region’s residents, killing 261.
As of Monday, Missouri has reported 27,890 confirmed cases with 1,083 deaths. The positive test rate was 5.5%.
Kansas had 20,058 positive cases and 288 deaths, according to data released Monday. The positive test rate was 8.7%.
This story was originally published July 13, 2020 at 1:56 PM.
