Why an Iraqi supertanker could ease pain at the pump
Markets are very good at panicking quickly and very bad at calming down slowly. A crisis hits, prices jump in a day, and the unwinding takes months of small, boring evidence that the worst case is not actually playing out.
For roughly three months now, the Strait of Hormuz has been the most expensive piece of water on the planet for American drivers.
About one-fifth of global oil consumption normally moves through that narrow channel between Iran and Oman, and when shipping stopped flowing in late February, U.S. pump prices took the elevator up.
The national average sits at $4.56 a gallon heading into Memorial Day weekend, up $1.38 from a year ago and the highest reading since 2022, according to AAA.
That is why my analysis of last weekend's tanker traffic kept coming back to one ship.
The very large crude carrier Eagle Verona just hauled roughly two million barrels of Iraqi crude past the U.S. blockade line and into the Arabian Sea, according to Bloomberg.
For drivers asking when the squeeze ends, that single sentence may matter more than another cable-news segment about the war.
What the Eagle Verona's quiet exit really means for oil markets
The ship loaded Iraqi crude bound for China at Basra Oil Terminal and slipped past the U.S. naval blockade line into the Gulf of Oman over the May 23 weekend, vessel-tracking data showed, "as talks continue to end the war between the U.S. and Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz," per Bloomberg.
It is not the first crude carrier to make the trip since Iran effectively closed the strait at the end of February. It joins a pattern that traders have started to take seriously.
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Two Chinese supertankers carrying a combined four million barrels of Iraqi crude cleared the strait the previous Wednesday, May 20, according to Kurdistan24.
A separate carrier, the Yuan Hua Hu, slipped past the blockade in mid-May with another two million barrels of Iraqi crude bound for Zhoushan Port in eastern China, per Bloomberg.
None of these crossings end the crisis. What they do is rebuild a thin lane of physical supply that the market had written off in late February.
That trickle is the first concrete evidence the system around Hormuz is finding workarounds, even before Washington and Tehran sign anything.
Related: Hope for Iran resolution gives stocks room to rally
How a chokepoint half a world away sets your gasoline price
Most drivers do not think of their fill-up as a geopolitical product, but the math is hard to dodge.
Roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption normally moves through the Strait of Hormuz, with flows averaging about 20.9 million barrels a day in the first half of 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Most of that oil heads to Asia, but the global crude benchmark every American refiner pays moves on those flows.
Crude oil has surged above $100 a barrel through most of the spring and pump prices have stayed elevated as a result, AAA noted in its mid-May update.
The story for U.S. consumers can be summed up in a handful of numbers.
Hormuz disruption by the numbers
- About 20.9 million barrels of oil and products flowed through the Strait of Hormuz daily in the first half of 2025, per the EIA.
- Brent crude spot prices hit $124.68 on April 8, per TheStreet's coverage of the disruption
- The AAA national average for regular gasoline is $4.56, up $1.38 year over year, per AAA.
- Six U.S. states now have average pump prices above $5, with California leading at $6.16, per AAA.
The Iraq-Turkey pipeline, the most obvious workaround, is moving only about 200,000 barrels per day, well short of its 650,000 bpd target, according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
That gap is why the oil market keeps watching tanker traffic instead of pipeline announcements.
Why each successful tanker chips away at the fear premium
When I looked at how Brent reacted to the first wave of tanker exits earlier this month, the pattern was clear.
Goldman Sachs warned earlier in the spring that an extended closure could push Brent toward $120 a barrel in the third quarter, per TheStreet's earlier reporting on the bank's revised forecast.
That was the bear case the market was already pricing in. Each successful exit, even one cargo, forces traders to question how watertight the closure really is.
ExxonMobil (XOM) Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods told analysts on the company's first-quarter earnings call that the market still has not priced in the full damage, according to TheStreet's coverage of the call.
That can cut both ways. If the diplomatic track stalls, Woods's warning sets the ceiling. If tankers keep leaking out, the floor moves up.
The U.S. and Iran are still in talks aimed at reopening the waterway, per Bloomberg, and U.S. forces have redirected about 100 commercial vessels during the six-week blockade.
That is the slow, boring evidence that fear is starting to leak out of the price.
What this means for your next fill-up and your portfolio
Memorial Day weekend is the worst possible time for an oil-price shock to land. AAA expects pump prices to stay elevated as summer driving demand kicks in, the group said in its May 21 release.
That is the part that hurts now. The part that matters more is what comes next.
If the trickle of tanker exits becomes a steady stream, Brent has room to come down even before the strait fully reopens. The pre-war benchmark sat closer to $73 a barrel, and a move halfway back to that level would drop pump prices well below their current four-year highs.
If U.S.-Iran talks produce an actual deal to reopen the strait, relief could come faster than the runup did. Brent already fell 13% in a single day on an earlier ceasefire headline, per TheStreet.
For consumers, the practical takeaway is to watch tanker traffic, not headlines.
One ship does not end a crisis. A fleet that quietly resumes its routes does. The Eagle Verona is one data point. The next ten ships will tell you whether your summer driving budget gets a break, your energy stocks keep running, or both.
Related: Iran and Oman reveals shocking plan for Strait of Hormuz and oil
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This story was originally published May 26, 2026 at 2:53 PM.