Stressed about the Chiefs resting their starters? You might be right. Here’s why
Patrick Mahomes will likely go 20 days between throwing a pass in an NFL game, his longest such break since the offseason.
The Chiefs are resting several starters in a Week 17 game that is meaningless for playoff seeding, a practice in which coach Andy Reid is basically following his own experience. Nobody knows his team better than he does, to be sure. He’s dialed in to his players’ mental makeup, to their ability to prepare for the playoffs with practices rather than with one more game and to their underlying need for a week off.
“I’ve been down this road a couple times before and had opportunities to rest guys, so we’ll do that,” Reid said. “I’ve done that in the past.”
This isn’t exactly like all of the predecessors, at least here in Kansas City. In 2017, for example, when the Chiefs allowed Mahomes, now their superstar quarterback, to make his NFL debut in a meaningless season finale in Denver, the Chiefs were slated to play in the opening round of the playoffs.
Here, the Chiefs already have one bye built into their postseason schedule after clinching the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The decision to rest starters essentially creates two byes back-to-back. And that is a more rare opportunity.
In the past 10 years, eight NFL teams have earned this same position — the No. 1 overall seed completely locked up before the Week 17 schedule kicked off. Eight teams, in other words, had the opportunity for the double bye ... if they so wished.
If you’re inclined to believe history is more of an indicator than it is coincidence, well, those who rested starters for the game’s entirety haven’t fared so well. Like, at all.
Three of the eight teams handled the regular season finale the way it appears the Chiefs are approaching the game. They sat top starters, including their quarterback, the entire game.
Four straddled the fence, letting the starters play one or two quarters before pulling them, something like a preseason game.
And just one of the eight opted to play everyone, even with nothing to play for, citing momentum as the motivating reason.
The worst track record among the bunch? Those teams who left their quarterbacks and top starters on the bench for the entire game in Week 17.
Here are glimpses of all eight and a following synopsis, the bread crumbs left for the Chiefs to consume.
2019-20 Ravens
Baltimore made six Pro Bowlers inactive for Week 17 against the Steelers, including MVP-winning quarterback Lamar Jackson, and still won the game anyway. But it would be their last victory of the season. They were blown out by the sixth-seeded Titans, 28-10, in the AFC Divisional Round.
Bottom line: Rested starters in Week 17 including the quarterback; 0-1 in playoffs
2018-19 Saints
New Orleans held out several key players, including quarterback Drew Brees and running back Alvin Kamara, and offered Teddy Bridgewater his first start since 2015 in a loss to the Panthers. The Saints would squeak by the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round, needing a second-half comeback to do it, but their luck ran out in the NFC Championship Game, losing in overtime to the Rams. They’re still calling for the pass interference flag in New Orleans.
Bottom line: Rested starters in Week 17, including the quarterback, 1-1 in playoffs.
2017-18 Eagles
Philadelphia rested a few starters but played others, including quarterback Nick Foles, through the opening quarter. Foles was miserable — 4 for 11 for 39 yards and an interception — before departing a 6-0 loss. But the Eagles, coached by Andy Reid protégée Doug Pederson, were just fine in the playoffs, going on to defeat the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Bottom line: Played quarterback Nick Foles for a quarter in Week 17; won Super Bowl.
2016-17 Cowboys
The Cowboys sat many of their top starters, though they did allow rookie quarterback Dak Prescott to play two offensive drives. Two weeks later, they got off to a slow start, falling behind by 15 points in an eventual loss to the Packers.
Bottom line: Played quarterback Dak Prescott two series in Week 17; 0-1 in playoffs.
2014-15 Patriots
In what’s been a theme for coach Bill Belichick, he played quarterback Tom Brady for a half, because he preferred he and the offense remained sharp. They didn’t have the best of afternoons, but they carried the AFC’s top playoff seed to a Super Bowl championship against the Seahawks.
Bottom line: Played quarterback Tom Brady for a half in Week 17; won Super Bowl.
2012-13 Falcons
The exception to the rule. The Falcons played everyone, with head coach Mike Smith saying he wanted to keep alive the team’s momentum heading into the playoffs. It appeared to backfire — not only did they lose to the Buccaneers in Week 17; starters John Abraham and Dunta Robinson were injured in the game. A cautionary tale, you could say. Those two returned for the playoffs, but the Falcons lost the NFC Championship Game to Colin Kaepernick’s 49ers.
Bottom line: Played everyone in Week 17; 1-1 in playoffs.
2011-12 Packers
The Packers offered nearly all of their top players the finale off, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers, pass rusher Clay Matthews, cornerback Charles Woodson and receivers Greg Jennings and Randall Cobb. And then they won anyway, finishing 15-1, their lone loss against the Chiefs. Rodgers’ backup, Matt Flynn, had the game of his life, parlaying it into a new contract with the Seahawks. Interestingly, as a way to keep Rodgers involved, coach Mike McCarthy let him call plays at one point in the first half, when Packers totaled 24 points. Two weeks later, the starters returned for the playoffs, and they put out a dud, losing 37-20 to the Giants in the Divisional Round.
Bottom line: Rested starters in Week 17 including the quarterback; 0-1 in playoffs.
2010-11 Patriots
New England offered a few players the week off, but Belichick kept Brady in the game into the third quarter. The Patriots blew out the Dolphins 38-7, with Brady finishing with two touchdown passes. But they were upended in the AFC Divisional Round by the sixth-seeded Jets, a game Jets linebacker Bart Scott could not wait to play, you might recall. Until this season, it had been the last time the Patriots didn’t advance past the Divisional Round.
Bottom line: Played quarterback Tom Brady into the third quarter; 0-1 in playoffs.
In totality, the track record could be alarming, or it could be considered somewhat coincidental. It is, however, notable that these were the best teams in their respective conferences over a 17-week regular season.
And among the three that chose to completely rest their starters, including the quarterback, they combined for just one playoff victory. Two were knocked out in their first game, the other in a conference championship game.
Not great.
Among the four who offered their starters and quarterback some snaps — if for no other reason than to prevent that 20-day layoff without an NFL pass — two won the Super Bowl, the 2017-18 Eagles and the 2014-15 Patriots.
The sample size is indeed small, and there are plenty of teams who get upset in the NFL playoffs regardless of what happened in the regular season finale. But the past three to let their starting quarterback carry a clipboard in the season finale didn’t have playoff success.
The question here, then, is whether there’s an actual relationship between the two. Is there causation? That’s an immeasurable question with only opinionated answers. But it’s ultimately the crux of the decision that Reid has made.
“I would just tell you my past experience is kind of what I bank on right now, just seeing and feel so that’s what I’d tell you,” Reid said. “But listen, I do have confidence that we have a veteran crew in there and they’re going to be OK. So, I mean I think in some cases some of these guys need just take a step back, you know?”
This story was originally published January 1, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Stressed about the Chiefs resting their starters? You might be right. Here’s why."