Chiefs-Cardinals scouting report

When the Chiefs run

The Chiefs boast a strong rushing attack that has tailed off a bit in recent weeks. In their last game, a 29-16 loss to Denver, star running back Jamaal Charles only logged 10 carries for 35 yards, while capable backup Knile Davis didn’t log a carry. Meanwhile, the Broncos snuffed out the run and won the battle up front. Look for the Cardinals to try to replicate that formula. Massive defensive end Calais Campbell (6 feet 8, 300 pounds) teams up with tackle Dan Williams (6-2, 327) to swallow up inside rushing lanes (see below), so it will be up the Chiefs’ interior linemen to match their physicality.

When the Chiefs pass

Campbell and outside linebacker Alex Okafor, who each have six sacks, power a pass rush that has been about league average. But defensive coordinator Todd Bowles loves to blitz, and the Chiefs have had a difficult time picking those up recently. Arizona might opt to stack the box, which will stop the run and help them get some pressure on the quarterback, and leave its two big physical cornerbacks — Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie — on an island. Peterson got burned repeatedly by Julio Jones last week (see below), but the Chiefs don’t have a receiver of Jones’ caliber. Arizona has struggled against tight ends, however, which means Travis Kelce and Anthony Fasano could factor heavily into the gameplan. The Cardinals will also miss safety Tyrann Mathieu, who will miss the game because of injury.

When the Cardinals run

The Cardinals will be without starter Andre Ellington, who has not had a great year but is still better than his replacements, Stepfan Taylor and Marion Grice. That’s a bad sign for a rushing attack that ranks 31st in the league and will also be without starting guard Paul Fanaika, who gave them a little muscle in the running game. The Chiefs rank 30th in the league in rushing defense, but they have mixed in moments of competency this season, even though they’ve been gashed for 204, 179 and 215 yards the last three games. Tackling at the second level was an issue a week ago against Denver, so the onus is on the inside linebackers and safeties to do a better job wrapping up. A bounceback performance from nose tackle Dontari Poe would also help — he has a winnable showdown against center Lyle Sendlein (see below) this week.

When the Cardinals pass

The Cardinals’ passing game took a major blow when quarterback Carson Palmer was lost for the season because of a torn ACL. His replacement, Drew Stanton, is 3-3 as a starter, but his accuracy takes a dive when he’s pressured (as shown below). Problem is, Stanton is fairly mobile and the Cardinals have yielded the sixth-fewest sacks in the league. Even still, the Chiefs have the personnel to get after him — outside linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are two of the best in the league. The secondary also needs to have a good day — Arizona boasts a solid receiver corps in Larry Fitzgerald (who will be a game-time decision), Michael Floyd and speedy rookie John Brown.

Special teams

Both teams have logged a return touchdown, but the Chiefs’ kick and punt return averages are higher. The Chiefs are also holding opponents to lower kick- and punt-return averages than the Cardinals, who allowed a punt return touchdown to Devin Hester a week ago that got called back for unsportsmanlike conduct (see below). Punter Dustin Colquitt has more kicks inside the 20 and a higher net average than his counterpart, Drew Butler, while kicker Cairo Santos and Arizona’s Chandler Catanzaro are having similarly solid seasons. On the whole, the Chiefs have the edge.

Coaching

These are two strong staffs. Andy Reid is is one of the league’s most respected offensive playcallers, while defensive coordinator Bob Sutton has successfully turned around a leaky pass defense. For Arizona, however, the same can be said for coach Bruce Arians, who won a Super Bowl as the Steelers’ offensive coordinator in 2010, and his defensive coordinator, Todd Bowles, who should be considered for some head coaching jobs this offseason. Reid, however, gets the edge because of his longevity (16 years as a head coach to Arians’ two) and success.

X-factor

Both teams have their eyes on the playoffs, but have hit a slight bump in the road. Both teams have lost their last two games, so neither enters on a roll, but this is a good time to note that University of Phoenix Stadium has become a legitimate home-field advantage for the Cardinals this season, as Arizona is 6-0 at home.

Bottom line: Chiefs 20-17

This one will be close, as both offenses could find it to be tough sledding against these defenses. Both teams need this game, but historically, Reid’s teams typically bounce back after butt kickings like the one they absorbed against Denver.

Terez A. Paylor, tpaylor@kcstar.com

This story was originally published December 6, 2014 at 4:39 PM with the headline "Chiefs-Cardinals scouting report."