Chiefs-49ers scouting report

When the Chiefs run

The Chiefs have morphed into a ground-oriented attack, as they’ve rushed the ball at a surprising 68-percent clip this season. They rank fourth in the league in rushing, and backup Knile Davis is the league’s fourth-leading rusher with 321 yards while starter Jamaal Charles is one of the league’s best backs. However, the 49ers rank second in the league in run defense because of their physicality and gap discipline. Their front seven is missing two stars in outside linebacker Aldon Smith and inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman, but defensive end Justin Smith and inside linebacker Patrick Willis are still great run stoppers, and safety Antoine Bethea is adept at coming up and helping out the run defense.

When the Chiefs pass

Alex Smith has been on fire the last three weeks, as he’s completed 72 percent of his passes for 689 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions while complementing a strong running game. He’s spread it around pretty good, too, though second-year tight end is becoming a matchup nightmare for defenses with his speed and athleticism. Expect Reid to dial up his best stuff for Smith, who is returning to the place where he began his career, but the flip side to that is the 49ers have the league’s seventh-best pass defense, and coach Jim Harbaugh — who coached Smith for two years — knows all of his weaknesses.

When the 49ers run

The Chiefs rank 19th in the league in run defense while the 49ers rank seventh in the league in rushing, but this could be closer that you might think. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s running ability is a big part of their attack with 187 rushing yards, and the Chiefs have held opposing quarterbacks to just 22 total yards this season. The 49ers use a downhill, gap-scheme power attack behind a large offensive line, but the Broncos use a similar rushing style and the Chiefs held them to 88 yards on 19 carries in week two. The Chiefs’ biggest struggles have come while defending the cutbacks in a zone-rushing scheme, but that shouldn’t be a problem Sunday. If the Chiefs know what’s coming, and they will, they can stop it, though a proud attack led by the ageless Frank Gore could still prevail.

When the 49ers pass

This is one area where the Chiefs have a clear advantage. Kaepernick has a strong arm but is not regarded as an outstanding passer, and with the 49ers’uncertain starting-tackle situation, pass-rushing outside linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston should have a chance to hunt. Left tackle Joe Staley is a three-time Pro Bowler but he’s struggled this year, and right tackle Anthony Davis is questionable for the game because of knee and ankle injuries. Star tight end Vernon Davis is also questionable with an injury, and while Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin are still good receivers, an improved Chiefs secondary has a chance to contain them.

Special teams

The Chiefs’ punt-return game will get an undeniable boost with the return of De’Anthony Thomas, who brings special explosiveness to the position. The staff is excited for his return. Meanwhile, kicker Cairo Santos is coming off his strongest outing after a shaky start, while punt Dustin Colquitt has been killing it this season as he’s second in the league in net punt average and second in punts inside the 20-yard line. 49ers kicker Phil Dawson made four field goals last week, but the 49ers punting unit surrendered two touchdowns to the Eagles last week.

Coaching

Harbaugh has led the 49ers to a Super Bowl and three straight NFC Championship Game appearances, so he gets the edge out of generable principle, though Reid has also been to a Super Bowl and reached the NFC Championship Game five times. This is close, and could easily swing toward the Chiefs if Reid continues his masterful offensive playcalling of the last three weeks.

X-factor

The 49ers beat the Eagles last week despite reports of a locker room that has tired of his abrasive ways. Compare that to the Chiefs, who by all accounts have embraced Reid’s leadership style and bought in to his guidance. This game may be in San Francisco, but this is a chance for the Chiefs to prove they’re for real. With the bye week looming, expect the Chiefs to go all-out, too.

Bottom line: Chiefs 24-20

It’s basically a coin flip, but after what they did on Monday night against New England, it’s okay to give the benefit of the doubt to the Chiefs on what could prove to be a huge day in Kansas City sports, as the Royals have a chance to clinch the American League Divisional Series against the Angels later in the day.

Terez A. Paylor, tpaylor@kcstar.com

This story was originally published October 5, 2014 at 12:07 AM with the headline "Chiefs-49ers scouting report."