How Ndamukong Suh’s reported contract could affect the Chiefs’ Justin Houston

Outside linebacker Justin Houston’s contract status remains in limbo and probably will for the near future, thanks to the $13.1 million nonexclusive franchise tag the Chiefs placed on him last week.

And while the Chiefs still have until July 15 to work out a long-term deal with Houston, other teams can enter into the mix Tuesday. That’s when, starting at 3 p.m., teams can officially offer a contract the Chiefs could either match or reject in exchange for two first-round picks.

But what kind of contract could Houston be seeking? It’s hard to say, though Tamba Hali’s five-year, $60 million contract was tossed around during negotiations last year as “a starting point,” both sides have consistently been quiet about numbers.

Salary-cap analyst and former agent Joel Corry warns that defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh’s record deal with the Dolphins — which is based off parameters around $114 million and $60 million guaranteed, according to ESPN, and makes him the highest-paid defensive player in the league — might raise the price tag even higher for the Chiefs or whoever else might come sniffing around.

“If I were Houston’s agent, I would have told the Chiefs upfront that if Ndamukong Suh’s deal doesn’t just barely beat J.J. Watt’s — if it comes in a lot higher — then I’m adjusting my contract demands accordingly, based on the deal,” Corry said. “Just like I would expect them to try to limit my client’s compensation if Suh’s deal came under Watt or lower than expected.”

Watt, who was chosen the NFL’s defensive player of the year ahead of Houston, signed a six-year, $100 million extension (with nearly $52 million in guarantees) in September.

Even though Watt, a 3-4 defensive end, and Suh, a 4-3 defensive tackle, play different positions than Houston, Corry said there’s certainly an argument to be made that Houston deserves to be paid in that similar, sky-high stratosphere.

“Here’s the argument for the agent — since he had 22 sacks, set the team sack record, almost broke the single-season sack record, he has transcended his position,” Corry said. “I would not care about the linebacker market, I care about the top non-quarterback market. That’s where I’m focused.

“So if you talk to me about linebacker deals, like Clay Matthews (the highest-paid player at Houston’s position) got, we’re not going to have discussions. Those discussions aren’t going to be productive.”

Especially after the monster season Houston, 26, just completed under a cap number of only $1.4 million while playing under the threat of injury.

“He held up his end of the bargain,” Corry said. “It always costs you more if you wait to sign a great player. He went out and did everything humanly possible in a contract year, so he’s going to expect to reap the benefit of it.”

The Chiefs and Houston’s representative have had discussions about a discussion since the end of the season, but nothing has blossomed from those talks — hence the reason the team slapped the franchise tag on Houston on Monday.

Houston, however, has options.

He could sign his $13.1 million tender, attend offseason workouts and play out the 2015 season, then possibly face another franchise tag for $14 million or so in 2016.

Or, if he wants to play hardball, he can simply let the July 15 deadline for him to agree to a long-term deal with the Chiefs pass without signing the tender. Until Houston signs it, he’s not obligated to attend any of the team’s offseason workouts, and it’s worth noting that Houston skipped those same workouts last spring in an effort to show his displeasure with the lack of a long-term deal in place.

What’s more, Houston is not obligated to sign the tender, or show up, at all, until week 10 of the regular season. At that point, he has to join the team to earn an accrued season, which will essentially be another step toward unrestricted free agency.

“If they can’t get a long-term deal done by the July 15 deadline and Justin Houston is going to miss parts of training camp — and if he’s going to extend his holdout to the regular season — I’m doing it for one reason; I want a clause to sign my tender that says you can’t put a franchise tag or transition tag on me in 2016,” Corry said.

But why would the Chiefs do that when it could essentially mean allowing Houston to walk away with no compensation in 2016?

“Well, let’s put it this way — everybody wants to win ball games, and it’s like week 4, week 5 and it’s a contest of wills, somebody’s gonna blink,” Corry said.

One player who received a similar clause in exchange for signing his tender before the deadline was Tennessee defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth in 2008. Corry also cited linebacker Lance Briggs and cornerback Asante Samuel as franchise players who negotiated similar clauses into their contracts.

“It can be done,” Corry said. “That’s the reason you miss time. To get that clause.”

However, Corry said missing games could also be tough for Houston to stomach, since he’d essentially be missing out on approximately $750,000 per game.

“That money is going to be hard for him to keep passing up,” Corry said. “If he misses two weeks this season, he would have missed out on more money than he made all of last year.”

All of this, of course, could be negated if Houston finds a team willing to offer him the money he wants — and also relinquish two first-round picks — after Tuesday. A team hasn’t done that since Dallas signed Joey Galloway in 2000, but this is potentially a unique situation, Corry said.

“If I’m a team at the back of the first round and I’m pretty sure I’ll be picking there next year as well, that would be a team that should consider it,” Corry said. “Would you rather have a player you can get in the late first round each of the next two years or a premier pass rusher in his prime?”

What’s more, a team could wait until after the draft to sign Houston, which would push the picks they owe back a year, provided the Chiefs don’t match the offer, of course.

Corry, however, does not believe the odds of Houston finding an offer sheet elsewhere are great.

“It’s remote, I wouldn’t hold my breath on it,” Corry said. “We’ll see if the July 15 deadline spurs action.”

Remember, though, the Chiefs have until then to negotiate a long-term deal with Houston, which should remain the goal for both sides, considering it would mean a softer cap hit in 2015 for the Chiefs and provide Houston with life-changing money and protect him in case of injury.

But it’s beginning to look like getting there could be a complicated process, based on Houston’s plan of attack and a rising price tag thanks to Suh’s monster deal.

“If I’m Houston’s agent, what now gets me to sign is in between J.J. Watt and Ndamukong Suh — $18 million per year, $55 million in guarantees and we can call it a day,” Corry said.

This story was originally published March 8, 2015 at 7:45 PM with the headline "How Ndamukong Suh’s reported contract could affect the Chiefs’ Justin Houston."