Weather

Weather apps predict snow for Kansas City this Easter Sunday. Really?

By Robert A. Cronkleton
Phone apps indicated there's a chance for snow on Easter Sunday in Kansas City. While there's some indication that's possible, forecasters say it's too early for a reliable forecast. In 2013, an Easter bunny snowman and egg decorated the front yard of a Belton home on Palm Sunday.
Phone apps indicated there's a chance for snow on Easter Sunday in Kansas City. While there's some indication that's possible, forecasters say it's too early for a reliable forecast. In 2013, an Easter bunny snowman and egg decorated the front yard of a Belton home on Palm Sunday. File photo The Kansas City Star

If you glanced at your weather app Tuesday, you might have seen snow in the Kansas City forecast for Easter Sunday.

Snow? It's supposed to be spring. But the weather apps are leaning toward winter. One even said between 2 and 5 inches of snow is expected.

So will there be a white Easter this year? The quick answer: Possibly.

"There is potential for some wintry mix to maybe even some light snow early Sunday morning," said Jonathan Welsh, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill.

But with Easter Sunday five days away, any forecast would be shaky at best.

One thing is certain. People headed to sunrise Easter services will want to bundle up.

"Sunday morning will be rather chilly," he said, adding that overnight temperatures will be near freezing. "We are not going to see those springtime temperatures Sunday afternoon either."

Afternoon temps will creep only into the mid-40s. It also will be cloudy with the chance of rain showers later in the afternoon into Monday.

There is a lot of uncertainty in predicting any storm, especially this far out, Welsh said. That's particularly true when there's snow in the forecast because it is very dependent on temperatures. A little variation in the temperature can mean the difference between all rain or all snow.

When it comes long-range forecasts, the National Weather Service likes to use the analogy of playing a game of pachinko. The forecast is the pinball in the game.

The forecast models know where to place the pinball, but there are many paths the ball can take over a period of days. The closer the ball is to the bottom, the fewer possible paths it can take, making it clearer where it is headed and how severe it will be.

When looking at the reliability of long-range forecasts, the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill developed an analogy based on the game of pachinko. The weather is like the pinball in the game. It can take many twists and turns over a period of days before becoming clearer on how severe and where it is going to be.
When looking at the reliability of long-range forecasts, the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill developed an analogy based on the game of pachinko. The weather is like the pinball in the game. It can take many twists and turns over a period of days before becoming clearer on how severe and where it is going to be. National Weather Service in Kansas City

The National Weather Service anticipates having a better forecast for Easter by Thursday or Friday.

"We just want to get the general word out that there is potential for light wintry precipitation, but we are not anticipating much in impacts — at this point," Welsh said.

As for the apps, they are good planning tools, if .you take them with a grain of salt, Welsh said.

"Especially in the long range — Days 5, 6 and 7 — with those particular apps you have to be mindful that things could change."

Robert A. Cronkleton: 816-234-4261; @cronkb

This story was originally published March 27, 2018 at 2:44 PM with the headline "Weather apps predict snow for Kansas City this Easter Sunday. Really?."

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