Royals should be (and are) more likely to buy than sell before MLB trade deadline
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Royals sit 3.5 games out of AL Wild Card, signaling deadline buyer stance.
- Pitching staff ranks third in ERA, pushing team to prioritize present success.
- Trade market gridlock may delay moves, but Royals aim to upgrade offense soon.
At least entering their series against the New York Mets starting Friday at Kauffman Stadium, the Royals had maneuvered back from the brink.
Suddenly, they’ve wriggled away from a wretched stretch by winning seven of their last nine games and eight of their last 12 to resurface at 46-48. At least as of this wild swing of the pendulum, they’re only 3.5 games shy of the third American League Wild-Card berth.
That’s a fine turn in this most capricious of seasons, but it’s still a bewildering place to be: smack within a clump of six other teams clawing for that final spot. In fact, only the Athletics and White Sox really have been KO’d in the AL.
So on the eve of the All-Star break and only weeks from the July 31 MLB trade deadline, no wonder the most essential matter for the Royals now is whether they’ll be buyers or sellers.
More to the point, whether they believe they have what it takes to return to the postseason, with some enhancements, or should yield to the cause of better days ahead.
That might seem a confounding question for this club, which aims to be transactional but not reckless and is at once driven to win today and compelled to nurture the future.
And the challenge is compounded by having to sift out the fool’s gold from what’s real with a volatile team. To wit, back in April and early May the Royals won 16 of 18 games — the franchise’s best such stretch since 1978 — then careened into a 14-28 skid before this recent reset.
Just who are these guys, anyway?
But here’s the thing: In several ways, the Royals have a certain clarity as the deadline looms and they probe with equilibrium for ways to address their glaring need for more production.
Because their pitching has been so dynamic, general manager J.J. Picollo reiterated Monday, “It’s very clear where we need to get better, and that makes things a little bit easier to deal with.”
Trouble is, the landscape is barren as 24 of 30 teams across Major League Baseball reasonably remain in contention for a playoff berth. That gridlock has clogged up the Royals’ ability to find the right options at the right price, and it makes for some peculiar dynamics underscoring it all.
For instance, the last thing the Royals would want to do would be to help strengthen another team they’re trying to fend off or maneuver past.
“But if what we’re able to acquire makes us that much better,” Picollo said, “you look at it.”
So this is something like playing musical chairs while dancing a do-si-do.
Given the constraints, the Royals are well-served to stay vigilant and opportunistic but let this unspool some more for now.
Like a wise friend once told me, there’s a big difference between procrastinating and taking all the time you have.
This is why that fits here: In the weeks to come, one way or another the possibilities are going to be more fertile because the market will become more fluid with separation. If not in the standings, per se, then with franchises coming to terms with who they really are.
Meanwhile, here’s another point I believe is clear to the Royals — and that I endorse at my peril, since I felt this way after 2015 and was wrong about it then.
Barring an epic collapse between today and the deadline, it’s easy to surmise that they’ll see the future as now and emphasize this season over the years ahead, rather than looking to 2026 and beyond.
For one thing, they know they have the rare sort of pitching staff — with a collective 3.46 ERA, third in the majors — that could furnish a meaningful playoff run.
Even though 2024 AL Cy Young finalist Seth Lugo can become a free agent after this season and 2023 All-Star Michael Lorenzen is on a one-year contract — making them viable trade pieces for future considerations or perhaps even a present bat — it would be imprudent to mess with the depth of this starting rotation, especially with Cole Ragans on the 60-day injured list through Aug. 7 with a rotator cuff strain.
Moreover, if it’s close enough to be a judgment call the Royals almost certainly will be focusing on this year.
And they should be.
While that might seem overly sentimental, and it has its risks, there’s something significant to be established with that mindset.
Even though owner John Sherman has demonstrated his willingness to spend — including more than $100 million on free agents last offseason — that message needs to be reinforced to players and the fan base.
Especially with a franchise that has made just three postseason appearances since 1985, only four times has earned back-to-back berths and only once has played in three straight postseasons (1976-78).
You can’t become a perennial contender by being a one-hit wonder.
And since they’re “far from being a team that’s looking to rebuild,” as Picollo put it, the push should be to optimize that now with a pitching staff that will be challenging to keep together after this year.
The Royals have what might be considered a duty — to the city, to their pitching staff, even to star Bobby Witt Jr. for signing a long-term contract — to prioritize the precious present.
Sherman, Picollo, the front office and the rest of the organization are cognizant of all that.
And they well know, for instance, that the 2014 team that earned the Wild-Card berth and went on to the World Series was just 48-46 at this point in the season.
And that last year the Detroit Tigers at this time were 45-49 — a game behind where the Royals are now — and then skidded to eight games under .500 by Aug. 10 … and still made the playoffs.
Those examples will inform some of the Royals’ thinking, as will the fact that 26 of their final 53 games will be against teams they’re scrapping with for that final AL Wild-Card spot.
So while we’re stranded in these strange few weeks, the most important thing the Royals can do is play like the best version of themselves.
The version that’s come into focus the last few weeks as Witt, Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino have performed far more like they did last season — a key part of what was missing when the team was lagging for so long.
The one that features contributions from the 6-9 slots in the order, most notably Nick Loftin and Jac Caglianone the last few days.
All enabling the pitching that nearly always gives them a chance — from the rotation through the back end of the bullpen with Lucas Erceg and Carlos Estévez — to have the impact it should.
While Picollo acknowledges the extremes “test your patience,” and while this team still is on a pace to “underscore” the franchise record for fewest runs in a season (586 in their inaugural 1969 campaign), the GM also has enough faith that he has resolved to stay calm through the storms and reiterate that he believes in who they have on the field.
For that matter, Picollo tacitly endorsed hitting coach Alec Zumwalt. Despite this year’s results, the front office feels Zumwalt has the trust of many key players with whom he’s worked up through the system. And Picollo called the game-planning and pre-game work “as good as anything you’re going to see.”
All of which is why the Royals would rather address needs ASAP than not but aren’t going to lunge at it.
And why they seem far more likely to double down on this season than dismantle it in the weeks to come.
“There’s no panic and sense we have to do something right now …” Picollo said. “If something makes sense, you do it quicker. But you know, you have until July 31. And we’re fully prepared to ride it all the way down to the end, like we have the last several years.”
Despite the muddled picture, at least that much should be clear.