Here’s how the red-hot Kansas City Royals create this pivotal part of their game
Over on page six of the Royals daily media game notes is a chart labeled “ROYALS W-L RECORD BY LINEUP CARD.” Its two grids are divided by batting order starts and position starts. And through their 39th game on Thursday, there was exactly one common denominator on those:
Every time they’ve taken the field, MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr. has batted second and played shortstop.
Nothing else has been the same every day.
Sure, there is ample predictability and stability in the lineup around Witt, particularly in the forms of Jonathan India, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez. They virtually always round out the front-end alignment and, increasingly, Maikel Garcia is a mainstay at fifth or sixth.
But it’s still telling that the Royals have deployed 31 lineups and displayed the same one only three times through their 23-16 start, which was punctuated on Thursday at Kauffman Stadium by a 10-0 win over the Chicago White Sox for their 15th win in their last 17 games.
The flux in this matrix reflects a vast variables, but it all flows from what might be considered a baseball version of the architectural design term “form follows function:” the “purpose of a building,” as the Guggenheim Museum describes it, “should be the starting point for its design.”
And that’s essentially what happens shortly after every game, when manager Matt Quatraro convenes with coaches and staff — including Royals vice-president of research and development Daniel Mack — to start the design for the purpose of the building: best chance to win the next day.
The dynamics are informed by a baseline of data from Mack, who oversees the Royals quantitative analysis staff and performance science department ... and happens to be a sharp and animated guy who loves to talk about this stuff.
As we spoke on Thursday afternoon, Mack compared lineup construction to a mathematical and programming term known as constraint satisfaction problems.
And I may or may not have kept up with him, but I understood this much:
“The way you solve constraint satisfactions is by finding an anchor point and usually working your way out from there,” he said, “and lineups are built around anchor points.”
Such as the ones above, starting with Witt and the powerful Perez as the cleanup man. And then including India and his leadoff skill-set at the top of the order, and Pasquantino more or less entrenched hitting third because its a good place for a substantial lefthanded run-producing bat the Royals believe in.
Even so, there’s plenty more to the typically 10-15 minute lineup-shaping discussion among the six or seven who usually attend the meetings at home, where general manager J.J. Picollo often listens in and only occasionally offers what he called “a strong feeling to share.”
In an interview with The Star in his office last week, Quatraro talked through the fundamentals of what the Royals seek to do day-in and day-out to optimize their chances of success — something they’ve made a habit of even while remaining among the lowest-scoring teams in MLB.
In this case, anyway, it seems you could say the music comes before the lyrics.
“To have a batting order,” he said, “you have to first decide which nine guys are going to play, right?”
And that nine initially more or less orbits around notions Mack and his staff suggest, at least as an opening premise for what Quatraro and Mack describes as highly collaborative conversations.
The idea, Mack said, is to “produce a significant amount of information that would give you an idea of what we believe the optimal lineup is.” But with alternatives typically “baked in” for discussion.
“No one’s on trial,” Mack said, laughing. “It’s just us trying to make sure we do whatever we can to put out the best (lineup) out there.”
Through what he described as “evidence-based” rationales that include everything from “good analytical principles” to “living, breathing” clubhouse components and account for days behind and days ahead.
Maybe it’s not all rocket science, exactly.
Just the same, this might be noted, per Mack’s Royals’ bio: While he was pursuing his doctorate in computer science from Vanderbilt, his research group won the NASA Associate Administrator Award for Technology and Innovation “for work combining machine learning with fault diagnosis.”
No wonder all that goes into the blender clearly exceeds what most of us might consider or truly comprehend — a point I felt the need to share with him ... and that he was kind enough to relatably minimize.
“Not to turn this into philosophy, but don’t we all struggle with the black box a little bit and knowing what’s in it and what’s not?” he said, smiling and later adding, “And, you know, this game sometimes invents black boxes, Almost for the sake of black boxes.”
As much as hitting and match-ups typically weigh most heavily in this particular one, that’s only a sliver of what’s being discussed in those meetings led by Quatraro — whom Mack calls “such an inquisitive human being.”
Among other metrics-based elements incorporated into their thinking, of course, are defense and base-running.
Then there’s factors such as spreading out lefthanded hitters in the lineup to offset lefthanded relievers, flexibility for late-game situations and Quatraro’s preference to keep free-swinging batters from being lined up together (the better to avoid a couple fast outs).
And how matchups may look different because of a given player’s progress or regression. And, heck, even the matter of whether certain data is statistically revealing or not substantial enough.
And working to recognize the difference between debilitating struggles (such as those that led to MJ Melendez being sent to Triple-A Omaha) and staying the course because of belief or encouraging signs — as with Massey (hitting .206).
“Sometimes making a change (just) to make it is not right,” Quatraro said. “That’s not just baseball, right?
Got all that?
And add an etc.
Put all those together, Quatraro said, “and we have formulas that can produce what we think are the best nine for that day.”
Which is great and all.
Even then, though ...
“That doesn’t mean we stay with just what that formula says,” he added.
For a multitude of reasons, including something that has increasingly blossomed mid-way through Quatraro’s third season: more of what Mack would call anchor points whose roles might tend to eclipse the formulaic.
Consider the aforementioned core five, and the fact the Royals believe in Michael Massey as at least generally an everyday second baseman. And that outfielder Drew Waters has played his way into something resembling a daily presence, and that Quatraro considers center fielder Kyle Isbel “more or less an everyday guy.”
“Our lineup has trended more towards a fixed lineup than it has the last two years,” said Quatraro, whose starting nines, for all their modifications, are tied for 13th in most lineups used.
That’s a fine thing that perhaps helps explain how the Royals seem to be somewhat unthawing offensively in the last week with an average of 6.0 runs in their first seven games in May.
Nevertheless, Quatraro smiled and added, “You’ve still got to be smart. Not too many Cal Ripkens (who played in an MLB-record 2,632 straight games). So you’ve got to pick the right days for guys to get days off.”
Which helps account for why you’ll see some deviations that might be perplexing.
Struggling Hunter Renfroe, for instance, was in right field on Thursday despite entering the game hitting .160 … and went down a few more notches with an 0-for-4 day at the plate. The day before, Cavan Biggio (.192) started in right. Mark Canha has started eight games at four positions with some more impact (.294).
Despite some apparent limitations in the group, there’s a dual purpose to their playing time.
Not merely resting regulars but also not rusting reserves.
“If you’re asking Mark Canha or Renfroe (or Biggio) to be a productive player, and you don’t play them for two straight weeks, that’s not setting them up for success,” Quatraro said.
And then there’s X-factors like this:
If they’re anticipating a low-scoring game, which most of the Royals games have been because of both their sterling pitching and dismal April offense, they may stress defense first. Because in that scenario, Quatraro said, “run prevention is just as important as run scoring.”
As for who plays where when, the Royals might be weighing anything from how many days in a row they’ve played to how many times in a row they’ll face righthanded hitting (11 games in a row, Quatraro was anticipating) to how to ease wear and tear even when a regular isn’t resting.
The most obvious spot is designated hitter, but it’s also why, say, India was playing third base instead of left field the other night (and was rested altogether Wednesday).
Opening his desk drawer to look at a chart, Quatraro noted that India had played the last five days in the outfield and that the Royals figured he’d benefit from a little less running and being more comfortable as an infielder.
“So third base should save his legs a little bit,” he said.
As for why India is playing left and third but never second, the position he’d played his entire major-league career before the Royals acquired him last offseason?
Since the majority of the second base play is going to go to Massey, the Royals reckoned India would benefit from only working in two places — especially since they’re both new to him.
They also have come to basically figure the same about Garcia, who made three starts in center field and one in right but most often (23 times) has started at third and otherwise filled in for Massey (six) and appears likely to stay mostly in the infield with the advent of Waters.
Add it all up, and this snapshot only scratches the surface of what’s bubbling behind the scenes.
But it all speaks to a phase of the operation that’s become a bedrock of a flourishing organization — starting with the anchor points of uncanny pitching and Witt and Perez that are rippling out into plenty more.
This story was originally published May 9, 2025 at 5:30 AM.