Why Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes isn’t as far off as you might think he is
Patrick Mahomes is broken. He’s got the yips. The fire is gone. All of those commercial appearances are distracting him (even if they were filmed months ago). Fatherhood is affecting his sleep. Does he even know how to read a defense? His arm strength doesn’t look the same. He’s trying to be too cute with gimmicky passes.
About everywhere you turn the last few weeks, it’s the end of the world as we know it when it comes to Mahomes — whose slump indeed has been worrisome, because it includes the sorts of mistakes he’s seldom made before as the quarterback of the Chiefs.
But while there undeniably have been recent glitches and hiccups, ones worth exploring, let’s first establish this: He remains a superstar, not a bursting supernova.
And rumors of his undoing are absurdly exaggerated, a point we hope to fortify with some context and interviews with current coaches and people who’ve known him forever … with a sports psychologist added for good measure.
Perhaps first and foremost in all this, let’s remember that the data is skewed by the fact that it all looked “so easy” for several years, said Chad Parker, Mahomes’ first coach (in baseball) and a longtime family friend: “It was just bombs away.”
Spoiled as we’ve been by the quarterback who had defied the laws of physics on the way to winning 26 of his previous 27 starts entering Super Bowl LV, it’s natural to be thrown by what sports psychologist Dan Wann calls “our famous friend, regression to the mean.”
More specifically, even if amassing unprecedented numbers (and moments) suggested only more ahead, well, that premise is inherently unsustainable on a continuous trajectory. And it warps not only expectations but perceptions.
So now that the ebb and flow of a game of constant flux and zillions of variables has swung the other way, it feels disastrous to some. Especially because fans live vicariously through their teams and players, meaning that when they struggle, “by extension, as a fan, I’m struggling,” said Wann, whose work includes the research of sports fandom.
“We just don’t give athletes the room to be human and to have peaks and valleys in their performances like the rest of us,” said Wann, a professor of psychology at Murray State and devout Chiefs fan who went to Shawnee Mission North.
Success is relative
The reality is you can’t always prosper throwing into the jaws of coverage or connect deep because Tyreek Hill just will be down there somewhere or have a sixth sense with Travis Kelce that is unerring.
When those sensational sorts of moments get fewer and farther in between, and the quarterback turns out to be maybe only mortally special instead of extraterrestrially so, it seems terrible by comparison.
So right now you might be thinking Mahomes is way off his game even as he’s enjoying a season many NFL starters would gladly embrace (with the exception of one crucial category).
But entering a pivotal game at Las Vegas on Sunday, Mahomes is third in the NFL in passing yards with 2,534 … all of 153 yards fewer than he had thrown for through nine games last year.
He’s tied for third in the NFL in touchdown passes with 20, which is more substantially below where he was a year ago at this time (25). But it’s also the same amount he had through his first 10 starts (including playing less than half the game when he suffered a knee injury in the second quarter at Denver) in the 2019 season … as the Chiefs were en route to winning their first Super Bowl in 50 years.
He’s also completing 65.2% of his passes. Even given that such a percentage this season might be considered a lesser degree of difficulty with more short-range attempts, that still compares favorably with his 66, 65.9 and 66.3 percent rate in his first three seasons as the starter.
Disconcerting as it is that he’s thrown an-NFL worst 10 interceptions, it also seems a mitigating point that half of those have caromed off the hands or equipment of a Chief first.
And while his average yards per attempt notably has dropped to 7 from the 8-plus he’d averaged for his career, that’s an obvious reflection of opponents deciding that absolutely nothing is more essential than squelching the deep pass.
Simply put, fewer spectacular plays serve to magnify what goes awry, especially when the offense as a whole is off-kilter.
A holistic view
Mahomes is the trigger of the offense, of course, but much has been amiss around him.
To say nothing of the simple fact that Mahomes and a completely overhauled offensive line continue to learn how to play together, something that has an impact on everything from where the pocket is best established to timing of his passes.
This is still relatively early in that process, especially considering part of Mahomes’ game at its best is unorthodox and that linemen aren’t naturally conditioned to such deviations.
Meanwhile, in a bizarre twist from their recent past under coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs lead the league in turnovers with 19 and have committed the second-most offensive penalties in the league (34 to Las Vegas’ 35).
They have dropped numerous passes (officially 11 but surely more), with the normally reliable Hill somewhat startlingly third in the league with five.
Not to mention a perplexing number of overall receiver routes evidently not run where Mahomes was anticipating them. And several key instances (including a late interception in a 30-24 loss to the Chargers) when the celebrated mind-meld between Mahomes and Kelce detached.
Meanwhile, the coaching staff could serve Mahomes better.
It seems there’s room for the Chiefs to run more to take advantage of what defenses are doing to offset Mahomes and the deep threat. Against Green Bay, for instance, they rushed seven times on the 15-play first possession for a touchdown and then ran just five more times until the middle of the third quarter.
So offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy had it right when he said Thursday that “the Chiefs are kicking the Chiefs’ ass.”
Certainly, Mahomes has had his role in that, from some curious choices he has made to uncharacteristic instances of recklessness to simply trying too hard in other moments — visible to one longtime observer in such ways as frequently increased velocity.
“He’ll try to take the whole thing on his shoulders; he will,” said Parker, whose son, Jake, is one of Mahomes’ best friends. “He’ll be thinking, ‘I’ve got to do something. I’ve got to get it here.’”
When I asked him about that on Wednesday, Mahomes essentially denied he is facing any different sort of mental challenge now than he has before.
Still, he said the last few weeks have been “big” for him, helping him realize it’s OK to punt (Tommy Townsend averaged 56.8 yards on six punts in the 13-7 win over the Packers) and that he can trust the defense (which has given up just 24 points in the last 10 quarters).
The Superman factor
When I asked Bieniemy on Thursday if he was seeing evidence of Mahomes pressing, he said that applied to the entire offense. But he almost certainly was considering Mahomes when he added, “I don’t need them trying to be Superman.”
Indeed, equipped with a remarkable arm and uncanny nerve, vision and football IQ, Mahomes has always had to contend with the fine line between making things happen and letting them happen.
“It pains him to throw the checkdown route, alright?” Parker said.
That was on stark display last week against the Packers, when Mahomes consciously decided to throw deep to a covered Mecole Hardman instead of over the middle to an open Kelce. Anyone watching might reasonably argue it was forced.
But Parker will tell you Mahomes “was trying to throw a guy open,” something we’ve seen work in the past. And Mahomes reckoned the risk-reward was worth it on first down, whether it was realized in a completion or even to keep the defense honest.
Meanwhile, we might hardly remember that play if Kelce hadn’t dropped a perfect pass that would have been good for a first down on the ensuing play. Or if Hill hadn’t slipped, in what has been a bit of a trend in itself, on third down.
Consider, too, that chance events (such as the bounce of a fumble or the carom of a pass) largely have gone the other way this season after a few years of falling favorably for the Chiefs, and it adds up to a disappointing start with little way to know where it’s all headed.
Still, if the Chiefs (5-4) beat the Raiders (5-3) on Sunday, and that’s a mighty big if, they’ll have the same record they had through 10 games when they won the Super Bowl two seasons ago.
The most vital force toward that triumph, and in their ill-fated encore appearance last season, was Mahomes.
“Which guy would you rather have?” Parker said. “Who you want?”
Nobody. Because for all the ups and downs and growing pains of this season, and all the theories about why he hasn’t looked quite the same, he’s the reason to still believe in their prospects.
“Regression to the mean,” Wann said, “it goes both ways.”
Meaning we should still expect him to be the star that he is. Because he remains a unique and transformational player — even if he and everyone around him have to play better for that to matter like it should.
This story was originally published November 12, 2021 at 5:00 AM.