Even at crossroads, one (fixable) stat shows Chiefs’ future still in their hands
All of a sudden, the two-time defending AFC champion Chiefs are in a three-way tie for ninth place in the conference.
The five-time defending AFC West champs are 2-3 and mired in last place in their division. If not for about three plays in their opener against Cleveland, they’d be 1-4 and seemingly in full freefall.
As it is, they’ve lost four of their last six games going back to the Super Bowl pummeling they were dealt by Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — a stunning reversal for a team that until that 31-9 loss had won 23 of its previous 24 games started by Patrick Mahomes.
“We’re being humbled,” Kansas City offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy said on Thursday. “And we’re being humbled a lot of different ways.”
Certainly, they’ve been stripped of any cloak of invincibility, any assumption they can automatically overcome anything because of the presence of Mahomes.
Confoundingly enough, though, the following is equally true: The Chiefs remain largely the same group that won the franchise’s first Super Bowl in 50 years and managed a rare encore trip a year later. And as sky plunging as it may seem, even this unsightly version of themselves is perhaps four to six bad plays from being a one-loss team — and maybe another four or five rotten plays from being undefeated (yes, even given Buffalo’s lopsided 38-20 victory).
All of which means that entering their game Sunday at Washington, which is also 2-3 and likewise falling short of preseason expectations, the Chiefs are all those things at once and stand at a crossroads as a team that has created more doubt than belief this season.
While we wait for them to reveal their true identity and direction now and in the weeks to come, they are a living, breathing contradiction.
They are a head-tilting Rorschach test in progress.
That leaves us all to our own interpretations, which surely track wildly from optimism attached to the recent past to the hovering paranoia earned by two generations of it not really being paranoia at all.
All of that makes it hard to discern between legitimate (and at least mendable, if not fixable) reasons for this state of the union and mere excuses for where they are now.
It makes it difficult to gauge what might be truly reassuring from vague hopes, especially when it comes to a defense on an NFL record pace as it’s allowing more than 7.0 yards a play.
But this much is certain: For all their defensive woes, the Chiefs still have the Pro Football Hall of Fame-bound head coach and offensive talent and broader experience that leaves them with a pivotal say in their rise or fall going forward.
And sprawling and bewildering as their issues are, one area of the game that has been a virtually constant asset to the Chiefs in the Andy Reid era is the hinge for everything else.
For all the vulnerabilities the Chiefs have demonstrated, including being off-kilter offensively against Buffalo and getting blasted for 29 or more points in each game while being scorched on long passes and often unable to stop the run, one decisive statistic stands out: turnover margin.
With Mahomes committing three turnovers against Buffalo and having now thrown six interceptions, one more than he threw in the entire 2019 regular season and as many as he threw last season, the Chiefs have surrendered the ball 11 times. That’s only four fewer turnovers than they committed in 16 games in 2019 and just five fewer than they committed in 16 games in 2020.
But for a real notion of what that says, consider that it ties a winless and generally inept Jacksonville team for the most in the league.
And with just four turnovers forced, the Chiefs sit 31st in the NFL with a minus-7 turnover ratio — ahead only of Jacksonville’s minus-10.
More explicitly, the Chiefs have committed 11 straight turnovers without being the beneficiary of any coming their way ... and 10 turnovers in their three losses compared to just two by opponents (both first-quarter interceptions of Lamar Jackson by Tyrann Mathieu in Baltimore).
This is a glaring outlier by the standards of the Chiefs under Reid, who entered this season plus-83 in turnovers since his debut season here in 2013.
In other words, it’s out of character in every way from what we’ve known and have come to take for granted.
That’s evident from the difference in Mahomes’ ledger alone, although one of his interceptions went off Marcus Kemp’s shoulder pads and another off Tyreek Hill’s hands.
The trend’s peculiarities also are illustrated in such examples as Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s first NFL fumble coming amid a would-be game-winning drive at Baltimore … a fumble that came on his 247th NFL touch (and after fumbling just once in 493 touches at LSU).
Rare as it might have been, Edwards-Helaire fumbled again against the Chargers a week later. Hill fumbled in that game, too, his first lost fumble in five years. And that aforementioned ball that glanced off the hands of Hill, absolutely one of the best receivers in the NFL, became a pick-6 against Buffalo.
So these seem to be aberrations, amplified by the defense’s inability to generate turnovers … which is part of what happens when it seldom creates pressure and, of course, entwined with its deeper problems.
Trouble is, even if the turnover issue seems quirky in the broader context, so what? The past was then, this is now.
It’s underscoring everything about the season, and if it continues, it will be as much or more their undoing than a defense that has given up 163 points in five games.
Because take away the turnovers, and the Chiefs’ offense remains as, or more, potent than ever. One measure: The Chiefs have punted just eight times all season.
“But you turn the ball over,” Reid said, “and you’ve got a problem.”
Especially when their margin for error is so reduced by the defense.
For that matter, it’s been a while since the Chiefs have been winning games comfortably. Since their 35-9 victory over the Jets last season, the Chiefs have won by double-digits just twice.
To be sure, they have plenty more problems to solve than turnover margin if this team is going to be special.
But first things first, especially when it’s a far more finite matter than why the defense is giving up so many points. Fixing the turnover problem would seem to be a controllable element of the game, and one that’s been a fundamental part of their success under Reid.
As they face a tell-tale time far earlier than anyone might have expected, they can change a lot about how they’re perceived, and their trajectory, if they just revert to the mean in this one simple way.
If they can’t do that, then they’re destined to unravel.
Obvious and easier said than done as it might be, that’s the surest route toward restoring some equilibrium … and becoming the team we still think can emerge out of this gridlock with themselves.