Mellinger Minutes: on Daniel Sorensen, KC Chiefs’ defense, Patrick Mahomes’ turnovers
A week ago, I told you that something inside of me broke while watching the Chiefs beat the Eagles. Here, now, I am telling you that I wonder if something inside of the Chiefs’ locker room broke in Sunday night’s loss to the Buffalo Bills.
The point a week ago was that I still had this faith in recent history. I still had this thought that the Chiefs’ defense could not be as bad as it appeared, for lots of reasons that can be shorthanded as, “They finished 10th and seventh in points against the last two years and have the same coaches and most of the same players.”
A chance against a struggling Philadelphia team playing without both of its starting tackles seemed like a good opportunity to get right. They did not.
Today, I come to you as the Chiefs are trying to pick up the pieces of a broken aura and championship swagger that feels like a long time ago,
Reporters aren’t in the locker room these days, so the power of observation isn’t as insightful as it once was, but I’m not sure I remember a post-game press conference quite so sour.
Coach Andy Reid will never point fingers, but he talks in code. So when the focus is on turnovers and communication and “looking forward” to when both sides of the ball are playing well, he’s telling you that he sees this primarily as a failure of the players.
The first question for safety Tyrann Mathieu after Sunday’s game was about his body language on the two long passes with Daniel Sorensen in coverage. Mathieu essentially doubled down:
“Obviously I felt like we were in fairly decent coverage, so you don’t expect anybody to be wide open,” Mathieu said.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes said opponents are using coverages they’ve never seen before, which is a particular problem against an offense that utilizes a lot of sight reads — receivers with the freedom to change routes after the play is set, based on coverage.
This is at least part of why the Chiefs’ offense often operates like an expensive sports car — when it’s right, nobody can catch it, but it’s not as durable or versatile as a pickup.
“We’re just not on that same page,” Mahomes said. “I have to trust in these guys that we’ll figure that out. That’s me knowing what they’re thinking, and them knowing what I’m thinking.”
The whole thing is a mess right now, and obviously we’ll get more into that below. Reid is fond of saying, “We all have a hand in that,” and here he’s right.
There is not a man on this team — rookie offensive linemen Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith are possible exceptions, but at this point we’re reaching a little too far — without problems to fix.
One interesting thing about this moment in the Chiefs’ existence is that these potential cracks in cohesion are coming as the schedule lightens.
If the Chiefs can win their next three (at Washington, at Tennessee and home against the Giants) and get some swagger back, it could help against the next three after that (Packers, at Raiders, Cowboys).
At that point, the Chiefs will need to be at least 6-5 or 7-4 to feel good about their future.
Right now they cannot feel good about their future.
This week’s reading recommendation is Meg Linehan’s reporting that brought the NWSL to a halt, and the eating recommendation is the Thai fried rice at Hot Basil.
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This is a rough week to be Daniel Sorensen. The tape from Sunday night — especially the first half — is something like his own personal horror film.
The point here is not to rub it in, but we might as well be honest about what happened. So, here, we present Four Really Bad Plays By Daniel Sorensen.
First, a missed tackle in a tight space:
Then, this play is remarkable by Josh Allen, and I will admit the hurdle over L’Jarius Sneed sparked a borderline unprofessional OH MY GOD from me in the press box. But before Allen gets that far, watch Sorensen just … fall down.
I guess you could say he tripped over Mike Danna’s foot? Maybe? But either way that’s bad.
Then here are the two most of you are talking about. Here are the two that triggered Mathieu. First, Stefon Diggs on a double move:
Look, Diggs is going to beat a lot of people. Sorensen played it wrong, but Diggs is a star and he earns his money.
This one is just inexcusable:
I can’t explain this, you guys.
Juan Thornhill is not a perfect player, and he’s probably benefiting some from Backup QB Syndrome here. But unless there’s something major that the coaches are hiding it’s really hard to understand why he’s not playing over Sorensen.
The arguments about knowing the system and being in the right places fall flat when there is no evidence that knowing the system is helping, and lots of evidence of Sorensen being in the wrong places.
Sorensen is not the cause of all the defense’s problems, and we’ll get more into that in the questions below. But I’m intentionally leading with him because I believe it’s the simplest and quickest way to get at least a little better, and I’m starting to get the feeling that the issue is becoming a wedge in parts of the locker room and organization.
I don’t say those things flippantly, either.
A lot of us thought this team’s ceiling was as the wire-to-wire consensus best team in the league, essentially a continuation of 2019 and 2020 with a good offensive line.
That’s gone. Dissolved. Crumbled.
This can still be a good team, a playoff team, and once you’re in the playoffs you can make a run to the Super Bowl. That’s all on the table.
But the problems with this group are deeper than I thought, and it’s easy to rip on Sorensen as the cause of it all. But let’s watch that long pass to Diggs again:
Where’s the pass rush?
Sorensen needs to be better, but even good secondaries can be beaten when asked to cover for four or five seconds. The Chiefs were credited with one quarterback hit against the Bills. One!
Defensive end Chris Jones missed the game with a wrist injury, and that’s a big deal. Obviously. Jones is not just a terrific player, but he’s the kind of terrific player who makes teammates better by demanding an outsized chunk of the opponent’s attention.
The Chiefs are a decidedly better defense with him on the field, but it’s not just about the Bills game. The Chiefs have the fewest sacks in the league, despite a roster and scheme focused primarily on rushing the passer.
Now, if you believe in the underlying metrics, that should improve. The Chiefs are ninth in hurry percentage and 14th in pressure percentage, according to Pro Football Reference. So you’d expect that kind of production to result in more sacks going forward.
But that’s still an average pass rush, which isn’t nearly good enough with how the Chiefs want to play defense.
This will always be a dangerous team as long as Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are together in their prime with a good offensive line.
But the standard isn’t dangerous, or getting to the playoffs. The standard is winning Super Bowls ... and it’s apparent that the Chiefs have a lot of work to do.
Before we get into this, let’s have some context:
The Chiefs are fifth in points, third in yards, sixth in rushing yards per attempt (!), first in points per possession (and higher than 2018), first in drive scoring percentage and first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
Yes, there are some things we should continue to monitor.
No, the league has not just come up with some Mahomes Stopper defense.
We’re going to write more about this during the week, but the Chiefs are allowing the defense to dictate terms.
They’re facing a lot of two-deep safeties with zone coverage. Defenses are bracketing Hill, keeping a spy on Mahomes and generally wanting to prevent big plays. The goal is less about stopping the Chiefs and more about testing their patience and consistency in execution. This is interesting: The Bills did not blitz the Chiefs once in 63 dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus.
Right now, that’s a heck of a bet.
The Chiefs have the answers on offense, because they have the answers to every question on the test. It’s just a matter of getting the right answers.
When Mahomes first started playing, teams blitzed a lot. Mahomes destroyed those blitzes.
Then, at the beginning of 2019, teams played a lot of man coverage against them. The Chiefs struggled against that, and eventually solved it.
At various times last year and now, teams are exaggerating deep coverage and keeping the ball in front of them. They’re forcing the Chiefs to work, to run a lot of snaps, betting that a penalty or other mistake can sink a drive.
This might be the stiffest challenge yet, because if the Chiefs are being surprised by coverages, the sight-reads that they have been so good with become less productive and more risky.
I guess a different way of saying this is: We’re not at the destination right now, but rather remaining on the journey.
This is true: The Chiefs are one play away from being 3-2 with a road win against the Ravens.
This is also true: The Chiefs are probably another play or three from being 4-1 with wins over the Ravens and Chargers, which would be pretty sweet.
But THIS is also true: The Chiefs are 2-3, and even if they had won those other games they’d still have some fundamental problems.
No team in football has turned it over more than the Chiefs, and only four have forced fewer turnovers. They have a wrecked defense with personnel disadvantages at every level, and evidence that the quarterback is (understandably) exaggerating the problem by opening up the risk-reward calculus.
This is just one play, but understand that this is on *first* down:
He completed the pass, and Josh Gordon is a receiver a quarterback can trust to make physical catches. But there’s just no way that’s an advisable risk — scrambling backward at a 45 degree angle, basically throwing back toward the center of the field over the left shoulder — in that situation.
And yet, we can all understand why Mahomes feels like he needs to push the pedal to the floor a little bit.
So there are some real problems here. And I agree with some of the premise of the question, that the Chiefs have played a difficult schedule. They will look better this weekend in Washington, and after that against the Titans and Giants. Or, another way to put it: If they don’t look better against those teams then we’ve got much bigger issues to talk about.
But I don’t buy the schedule thing as an excuse or explanation, because this group is not to be judged on whether they can beat bad or mediocre teams convincingly.
This group is to be judged on whether they can consistently beat the best teams in the world.
It’s a brutal standard, but one they’ve earned.
There could be something to that. I do think it’s fair to say we’ve never seen him struggle like this.
Did you realize he’s already matched his interception total from last season, and surpassed his total from 2019?
Mahomes has thrown 20 percent of his career interceptions this season in 10 percent of his career attempts.
This is the kind of five-game stretch that we could have reasonably expected in 2018, when he had never played in the NFL before. Instead, we’re getting it when he’s 26 years old and has either won the league MVP or played in the Super Bowl in each of his three previous seasons as a starter.
Sunday night could have been the worst game of his career, too.
Passer rating is an imperfect stat, but it’s a useful shorthand for debates like this. And Mahomes’ 70.9 rating Sunday was the second-lowest of his career — he was at 62.7 against the Jaguars in 2019.
It’s just the seventh time in 54 starts that Mahomes has not thrown more touchdowns than interceptions, and just the third time he’s turned it over more than twice.
We’re just guessing on routes and sight-reads, but there were more missed throws than we’ve become accustomed to seeing:
And how many times have we seen Mahomes and Hill connect on a throw like this layup?
The Chiefs converted this fourth down on a penalty, so whatever, but Mahomes has Hardman open across the sticks but appears hesitant to throw to him. He waits a beat longer, then throws as he’s being dragged down, and Hardman drops it.
This is a bad snap for Hardman — nobody’s arguing otherwise — but perhaps if the ball is delivered on time, perhaps if Mahomes had reason to trust Hardman, they wouldn’t have needed the penalty.
So, look. Mahomes didn’t play well and with the Chargers game this is twice he hasn’t been good against the AFC’s best teams.
That’s not a reason to freak out, or even to expect the Chiefs’ offense to be anything less than top three in the league from this point forward.
But it’s something that open minded people should keep in mind.
They probably need to win their next three. A team as talented as the Chiefs won’t be out of the playoff picture at 4-4 or even 3-5, but not taking advantage of a relatively soft part of the schedule would be self-destructive.
So here’s how the Chiefs make the playoffs:
Win at Washington, at Tennessee and against the Giants at home.
Win two of the next three: Packers at home, at Raiders, Cowboys at home.
Win two of the first three out of the bye: Broncos at home, Raiders at home, (and this is brutal) at the Chargers on a Thursday night.
Win the last three: Steelers at home, at the Bengals, at the Broncos.
That would get the Chiefs to 12-5, which might not win the division (especially if they lose at the Chargers) but could be enough to host a wild card game.
After that, the Chiefs can feel like a legitimately hot team. They’d have won 10 of 12, including at least four or five against playoff teams.
But they really have to win these next three for anyone other than their mothers to believe.
Are we under the impression that Veach gets no criticism? That people are thrilled with the Frank Clark contract, or the secondary depth, or the linebacker speed, or the ROI on the defensive front?
This is where people can lose me.
I don’t see Reid getting his pants coached off weekly. I see an offense that’s turning it over like hotcakes and a defense that’s likely both more outmanned than some of us expected and seeing that disadvantage exaggerated by injuries. Mathieu has never been Ronnie Lott as a tackler, but I’ve also never thought he’s looked scared on the field.
We’re starting to repeat a little bit here now, but there’s not a position group on that team that can’t see plenty to improve on.
That can be a good or bad thing, but the cohesion this team has built over the last few years is being tested.
The Sorensen situation is only part of that.
Absolutely. I cannot think of another logical explanation for all the interceptions.
That logic works anecdotally, too, with several coming on forced third-down throws where a reasonable quarterback might conclude an interception is only marginally worse than a punt.
I mentioned earlier that the Bills did not blitz Mahomes even once. The Eagles blitzed him just three times (out of 36 dropbacks), the Chargers nine (out of 50), the Ravens six (32) and the Browns 10 (41).
Overall, he’s been blitzed on just 12.6% of his dropbacks.
But he’s been pressured on 31.1%.
Some of that is on him either breaking the pocket too early or drifting too far back and creating pressure. Some of it is on a new offensive line learning what he wants, and on him in learning how to best help them succeed.
But I bring up these pressure and blitz numbers to say that this is all unsustainable — a quarterback turning it over this often and being pressured without extra pass rushers is a quarterback doomed to failure.
One of the reasons Mahomes is so good is that he is so adaptable. It’s easy to get lost in the no-look passes and different platforms and agility, but his real genius is in the way he sees the game.
He’s physically talented enough that he’d be a good quarterback with average intelligence, but he’s also smart enough that he’d be a good quarterback without these physical gifts.
He’s losing the battle right now. The un-blitzed pressure and the defense’s failures and the new coverages are conspiring. They’ve reached critical mass. They’re too much.
But I don’t know why we’d believe that Mahomes — and Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, but Mahomes is the one doing it — will remain stumped by this problem.
Well, yeah. Either of those are on the table. This is something we’ve been talking about since the first Super Bowl:
There is not a single person involved with the Chiefs who would see “only” one Super Bowl championship with this core as satisfying. They wouldn’t. They couldn’t.
The margin for error shrunk as Mahomes transitioned off his rookie contract, and the path became even more difficult with the diminished salary cap.
The reality of limited spending, lower draft picks and natural attrition means winning the next Super Bowl could be more difficult than the first. They’ve also seen some bad luck the last two seasons, which doesn’t help.
Long-term, one of the most important factors will be personality management. This whole operation will be set back if the men involved allow the sort of distrust and infighting that we’ve seen with the Seahawks and Packers.
They’re in a good space on that at the moment, but you know how these things go. If you’re not constantly vigilant about preventing problems then you’re essentially inviting them in. The longer the losing lasts, the more difficult that balance becomes.
Mahomes is the key to this, because he’s the key to everything the Chiefs do. There’s no tangible reason to believe he’s going to go diva and demand a trade at any point, but the same probably could have been said about Wilson, too.
How dare you insinuate I need that many words to say what all right-thinking people know in their heart to be true:
55-45 strawberry jelly to crunchy peanut butter, and the bread is an underappreciated but essential part of this. The store-brand stuff at the grocery down the street is terrific, but generally you need a softer bread that’s going to stand up for itself while still allowing the jelly and peanut butter to shine.
Think about what would happen if you made your sandwich and left it out.
If it would be soggy and gross within 20 minutes, your bread is too weak.
If it would still be edible after like 45 minutes, your bread needs some humility.
I will be taking no more questions on this.
My view is that the Royals didn’t hold onto players too long because of sentiment. My view is that they held onto players too long out of hubris, or a lack of boldness.
I wrote about this at the time, but the direction from ownership after 2016 was to keep winning while also rebuilding. That’s fine in theory, but without adding payroll it set the club up to fail.
The Royals could have pursued 2017 and 2018 with aggression that would have included added payroll and trading prospects, or they could have prepared for the future while saving money and trading veterans.
They tried to do both, which meant they did neither.
With the Chiefs … are we already saying they’ve held onto guys too long?
I can see the argument that sentiment is so far winning the day with Sorensen, but is there anyone else? They cut Eric Fisher. They didn’t give Bashaud Breeland the contract he wanted. They walked away from Eric Berry and Justin Houston.
I’ll be shocked if Frank Clark isn’t cut after this season, and something like a half-step below shocked if Anthony Hitchens isn’t gone. They shouldn’t have given Tamba Hali that second extension, but that was John Dorsey’s call.
Do people think this?
I actually don’t cook wings all that often. I know I’m a cliche, and I’m not sure why the same logic doesn’t apply to barbecue spots nearby, but I’m so close to a Peanut that I just outsource most of my wings needs to the pros.
I’m good for, maybe, two days a year cooking wings?
I wish I had an awesome secret to share, but I think I’m pretty straightforward:
The sauce is salt and pepper and garlic powder with four sticks of butter and at least a big bottle and a half of Louisiana hot sauce (Frank’s is also acceptable). Go heavier on the pepper than the salt.
I don’t have a real fryer, so I can’t speak on that. But I’ve used an air fryer and done them on the grill and I’m telling you the ones in the oven end up the best. Usually cook around 350 for 12 to 15 minutes or so, just until they start to change color a bit. Taken them out, roll them in the sauce, let ‘em stand for a few minutes before serving.
For me, the key is the blue cheese. I’ve tried to recreate the Peanut’s blue cheese and I think I’m sort of close: tub of sour cream, little bit of cilantro, some chopped red onion, some garlic and salt and pepper. Blend it and then add the blue cheese crumbles until you have the texture you want.
I really don’t know why I don’t get a fryer, though. That seems like the move.
Look, we’re still very early here. We don’t know how free agency will go, or the trade market, or what the rest of the division will do.
My way-too-early and not-that-helpful thought: Nothing would surprise me.
The Royals have a lot of promising pieces. They have athleticism and versatility. They have power and speed. They have the framework of what might-could-maybe-possibly be one of the best defenses in baseball. They have arms stacked on arms, which are also stacked on arms. They have three minor-leaguers who will be on every Rookie of the Year watch list you might see between now and opening day.
All of that is true, but so is this: The Royals do not currently have a player who will be 30 or younger on opening day and has made an All-Star team.
They have a bunch who might someday soon — Nicky Lopez, Adalberto Mondesi, Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Pratto, M.J. Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Brad Keller, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Josh Staumount, and Carlos Hernandez, to name just 11.
But none who’ve done it already, which means the optimism can be both warranted and, well, optimistic. You’re doing more projecting than relying on track records.
That can be scary.
That can also be fun.
Four months, my man.
Or, put another way: about nine days after the Chiefs lose a divisional-round playoff game in L.A.
This week I’m particularly grateful for this moment when our kid had his last baseball game, and to celebrate we let him choose dinner that night, and his answer was the Peanut. It’s just nice when you see your kids share your values, you know?