Mellinger Minutes: Arrowhead full, Chiefs win, but is there anything to worry about?
What’s wild is I thought I was getting there early. I thought I was beating traffic.
I’m about 15 minutes from the stadiums, and left around noon. With game traffic I figured it would take 30 minutes. Probably another 10 or 15 minutes to get through the gates and find a spot.
Way I figured it, I’d be getting there right between the early rush of people who set up grills in the parking lot and the later rush of folks who just want to slam a few domestics and play some bags before going in.
I was wrong.
Very wrong.
I think getting there around three hours before kickoff meant I was part of the late rush. With the exception of a Royals postseason or two, I’ve been to every Chiefs game since 2010 and don’t remember there ever being this many people this early.
It was almost like we had a pandemic since the last time Arrowhead was at full capacity or something.
Last week, I worried a bit about how this would all go. Wondered if that pent-up energy would spill out in the wrong ways, like it has several times in stadiums around the country already.
I’m thrilled to be wrong.
Now, I’m fairly certain there were some choice words in the stands. Probably a punch or two. I would assume that dozens of people puked, starting well before kickoff, and some people who went to the game on Sunday probably did some stuff they wouldn’t think of doing at work on Monday.
But overall?
Seemed like the right kind of party. The right kind of energy. Seemed like the focus was on the game, and on each other.
Andy Reid is sort of famously stoic in press conferences. He does this intentionally, of course, and there are good reasons. But he broke character a few different times on Sunday. He was as visibly wowed by the crowd as any point that I can remember here in Kansas City. He even (playfully) challenged Adam Teicher to a fight. It was delightful.
Wasn’t just him, either. Tyreek Hill dropped an eff-bomb. So did Aaron Ladd. There were jokes and playful interactions and as much as anything a sort of collective gratitude in all of us that we were back at it again.
There’s a lot of football to talk about. The Chiefs are already a game ahead of the Bills and Browns. They have holes to fix on defense and players to get healthy and an offensive line to develop. The schedule is loaded, with a Sunday night game in Baltimore coming up and then the Chargers and Bills and Titans before the end of October.
We know a little about the Chiefs now and will know much more about them soon. We’ll talk about all of that, not just here below but in the days and weeks to come.
I’m writing this intro already knowing that the questions and answers went long, so I’m going to stop this short now. I just wanted to take a few paragraphs to point out what I think we all see as obvious:
It’s damn good to have football back in full stadiums, and I’m so happy that it came back in the right way this weekend.
This week’s reading recommendation is Heather Dinich and Dan Murphy on the mess of the NCAA, and the eating recommendation is the onion rings at Johnny’s.
Thanks to everyone who’s listened to our Mellinger Minutes For Your Ears podcast, and here is a big warm invitation to start if you haven’t already. We’re out from behind the paywall and free on Apple or Spotify or Stitcher or wherever you get your shows.
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Counterpoint: has this not been (basically) the Mahomes Minutes for 3+ NFL seasons now?
Jonathan, you’re in a safe space. You’re among friends. Thank you for your honesty.
But by now, the monsters are around the other side’s corners.
All of them.
Lots of corners.
Lots of monsters.
I would argue that of all 32 fan bases, none deserved Mahomes more than the Chiefs.
If you want to argue for the Lions, fine, those people have been to hell and back, but if we’re honest I think we’d have to admit that franchise would’ve screwed Mahomes up somehow and the world doesn’t need that.
Same with the Bengals, now that I’m thinking about it. And the Jets.
I would listen to an argument for the Chargers, because that fan base has been treated like dirt by ownership, but they’re in Southern California so they can go play in (heavy) traffic. The Jaguars might have an interesting case, but they haven’t been around long enough and, besides, they hired Urban Meyer so they deserve what they get.
The Bears?
I think the Bears have a good case for this, actually. Those fans deserve better than what they’ve gotten. But if Justin Fields is as good as they think, they’ll have a lot of fun times in the next few years.
When Mahomes got here, the Chiefs could check the following boxes:
- weirdly consistent aversion to using a first-round pick on a quarterback in a league where quarterbacks mean everything.
- the kind of fan base that is so devoted they tailgated for games before the gates even opened during a 2-14 season
- long history of playing the henchmen for the other team’s Batman quarterback, from John Elway to Jim Kelly to Peyton Manning (to Peyton Manning again when he joined the Broncos).
- a strong front office and state-of-the-art coaching staff to help maximize his gifts.
I know it feels weird that the best player in the sport lives in Kansas City. But that’s reality, and you maniacs deserve it.
Enjoy.
So, this is a popular feeling …
… and I get it. This is not a turnkey operation. We can make our jokes but this is not some version of the South Park meme:
Step 1: Employ Patrick Mahomes.
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Parade!
It doesn’t work like that. So I’m going to make three general points here.
The first is that the Chiefs are not perfect. The modern NFL does not allow for perfection. No team — not the Chiefs, not the Bucs returning 22 starters from the Super Bowl champs, not anyone — has the right to slam every opponent they see. Especially not the good ones.
The Chiefs have advantages over every team they will face, but they still have to put in the work. They still need to execute and adjust and do all the things. I know it’s human nature, but if you step back a bit it’s pretty wild how quickly and emphatically this went from just wanting to be competitive to not being satisfied with a win over (what I think is) the AFC’s strongest threat.
The second point is that for me this was different than the wins that felt too close last year. You know they won nine games (including the Browns playoff game) by six or fewer points last season. Most of those games followed a similar pattern, with the Chiefs getting out to big leads and then allowing a sort of backdoor cover*.
* They covered just one of eight spreads over the last eight games of the regular season, even while going 7-1 (and undefeated with the starters) over that same span.
It was similar vibes at every post-game news conference: The most important thing is we got the win, but we know we have some things we need to clean up and need to finish strong.
This season opener was different. The Chiefs were getting beat. The Browns were controlling the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs had no answers. They trailed by 12 at halftime (they led by 16 at halftime of the playoff game), and were down two possessions into the fourth quarter.
The Chiefs had to take that game away. They made the plays that mattered at the end. They still have some things to clean up, but they finished strong.
Again: No win is perfect. But I think there’s a difference between getting up big and then losing focus, compared to fighting from kick to gun and beating a strong opponent at the end.
The third point is that Mahomes is the ultimate difference-maker. He’s the cheat code. The Chiefs have a good enough team that they’d be in the playoffs — probably as the division champs — with a normal human quarterback. We saw that with Alex Smith.
But there will probably be two or three more games this season that they will win simply because they have a unicorn quarterback. You’re right, Gene: you’d rather not rely on that. That shouldn’t be the game plan.
But it is how the NFL is structured, and in that reality, it’s a lot better to have Mahomes than to play against him.
Because, mercy, he must be INFURIATING to play or root against.
There is some nuance here.
The Chiefs’ new offensive line — and it was going to be a story in the opener no matter what — was not as good as the staff believes it will be, and was also not terrible.
I’m curious how different the perception would be without this specific snap:
That one was bad. That’s a third and 10 where a conversion helps salt away the lead, and a sack there not only risks a turnover but gives the Browns the chance to win it. They took over with 2:49 left and needing a touchdown, which is difficult, but it’s also a situation the Browns would have accepted before the game started.
What’s particularly concerning there is that this is Brown’s biggest vulnerability — the speed-rush around the edge. He’s an enormous man, and once he gets his hands engaged it’s usually over for the defender, but his feet aren’t as quick as those of some other left tackles. It creates a bit of a cat-and-mouse situation where he can overcompensate and be vulnerable for an inside move, but on this snap Myles Garrett just takes it around the edge and Mahomes has no chance.
Now, it’s also true that Garrett might be the best edge rusher on the planet, so getting beat there should not be seen as some disqualification for Brown being a good left tackle.
Mahomes was under pressure on 17 of 41 dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s far too many, but it’s also more than what I would have expected watching live. Pressures are a subjective measurement, so I’ll be curious to see what it looks like watching again on the All-22.
It’s also interesting that Mahomes was wildly successful on those 17 dropbacks — he completed eight of 13 passes for 185 yards (including the long touchdown to Tyreek Hill) and found nine first downs on those snaps. His passer rating was actually a little better against pressure (131.1) than in clean pockets (123.2).
Again, much of that came on the long touchdown, but still.
We should talk about the run game, too. The Chiefs spent a lot of training camp talking about how they would run the ball more and do it more efficiently. I still believe that’s the plan, but I have always believed this would take some time.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 14 carries for 43 yards. As a team, the Chiefs averaged 3.2 yards per rush. That’s not good enough.
But they did have some nice moments, too. Watch the interior of the line on this snap, in particular center Creed Humphrey (No. 52) and right guard Trey Smith (No. 65).
Mahomes’ touchdown run may have been the line’s best snap all day. Watch this. The line has this bricked off. Pressure comes when Edwards-Helaire misses a block — his pass protection still needs a lot of work — but then watch how they adjust. Smith comes around and annihilates some pour soul near the goal line right in front of Mahomes.
We could go through these snaps all day, but I think generally speaking the interior of the line gets a B+ while the tackles get something like a C-.
Overall, I think it’s about what the fair expectation was, particularly when you account for the talent the Browns have up front.
Will again keep a close eye on this — particularly Brown against his old team — Sunday night in Baltimore.
My biggest concerns on defense would be the Chiefs essentially screaming UNCLE at the line of scrimmage in the first half, and some rough moments by the secondary that could translate into a lot of big plays.
The concerns on offense would be that they spent a lot of time and energy working on their offensive line, and the optimistic reading is that we’re waiting to see that matter, particularly in the run game.
And, look: I know the run is not as important as the pass, but I do believe in the idea that presenting a credible threat on the ground is an effective way to help the pass.
Mahomes is going to be great in any situation, but if you can force defenses to play you somewhat close to honestly … now you’re controlling everything.
The Chiefs are FAR from perfect. We know this. And they’ll need to get better to get where they want to be. And we can talk a lot about the following flaws and others:
- Chiefs employees not named Travis or Tyreek combined for 10 catches for 64 yards.
- The Browns left some big plays on the field.
- Chiefs had just nine pressures on 31 dropbacks.
- They also missed 12 tackles.
But context is important, too. The Chiefs played without Tyrann Mathieu, Frank Clark and Willie Gay. Complaining about who’s catching balls other than Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is a bit like complaining about where you’re going to vacation if you live on Kauai.
Perhaps most importantly, the Browns are very good. Orlando Brown needs to get better and more comfortable, but he’s not going to see Myles Garrett again until the playoffs. The pass rush was stonewalled for the first half, but the Browns have one of the best offensive lines in the league. This stuff matters, too.
I don’t think we can make big judgments based on that game. We agree there.
The line of scrimmage stuff is the most concerning to me. Frank Clark is the best the Chiefs have at setting the edge against the run. The Chiefs missed his physicality, that’s a real thing, but I also think NFL teams play at less than full strength all the time.
Clark is good, but he’s not Khalil Mack, and — offensive line being the one exception — the Chiefs should be able to absorb an injury on the D-line better than any other position group.
Mathieu is a superstar, and he shows that every game he plays, but it showed as much as ever in the game he did not play. We don’t know the defensive calls and assignments, so we can’t be certain, but it sure looked like the Chiefs had more miscommunications than usual in the back end. Mathieu has a way of creating big plays for his side, and the Chiefs were missing that, too.
I also think it’s important that after halftime the Browns went fumble-TD-botched punt-punt-interception.
That’s a remarkable improvement from the first half and does not come by accident. Give defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo a lot of credit there.
The standard for the defense is lower than the offense. That’s just the way this thing is going to work. They were ineffective in the first half, but terrific in the second half.
Assuming they get Mathieu back against the Ravens, and perhaps Clark, I think we’ll be able to have more context and data and film to judge what this group is soon.
I’ve thought this for years. Especially in 2018, when the defense was so bad.
The calculus changes a bit now, because the Chiefs have enough talent and coaching to at least be top half and perhaps even top 10 or 12 in the league. I also believe in the power of messaging, and I think if you literally *never* punt you’re telling your defense they don’t matter and you might see the results fade.
But if we’re talking broad strokes here, yes, 100 percent, we agree the Chiefs should be more aggressive on fourth downs.
They didn’t go for any fourth downs against the Browns, but the only one I disagreed with was the fourth and 2 from the 10 on the first drive. The Chiefs kicked, and afterward Reid insinuated it was a difficult decision.
It all worked out, obviously, but I think about it like this — if I’m the Browns, I’m hoping the Chiefs kick.
A year ago, the Chiefs attempted to convert just 23 fourth downs. That’s fewer than 22 other teams. They converted nine, with the 56.3% success rate ranking 18th.
I’m actually not sure how telling that is. Generally speaking the worse a team is the more fourth downs they’ll attempt — 11 of the top 13 teams in fourth-down attempts had losing records last year.
Those numbers also don’t tell us how often a team punted on fourth and 1 or 2, and how much that varied by field position and game situation. I can tell you the Chiefs converted seven of 12 on fourth and 1 or 2, and honestly I would have expected that number to be higher.
The coach’s calculus has to compare the points gained by converting those fourth downs against the points surrendered by losing the 40 or so yards of field position.
My guess — and that’s all I have right now — is that on the whole the Chiefs should be much more aggressive, but that if you go case-by-case you can understand many of the punt decisions.
But it is true that the Chiefs have more ways than most to convert. They’ve got speed on the edges, power on the interior of the line, a creative and agile quarterback and one of the most innovative offensive coaches of all-time.
There have been times Reid decides to kick where I think they should have gone for it, but I’m not sure I can remember a time he’s gone for it where I thought they should kick.
But, also: It’s not my money on the line.
Well, watching live this snap stuck out:
And, look, it’s the easiest thing in the world to sit in the press box behind a plate of chips and dip and think the running back made the wrong split-second decision in the middle of chaos with huge and violent men chasing him.
But doesn’t it look like Edwards-Helaire has a better gain if he pops it outside to the left? I mean, I don’t know. This isn’t the All-22. Maybe that end could pop outside with him, but from this angle it looks like there’s a lot of open space.
Edwards-Helaire can be a useful player. I’ll never agree with the Chiefs taking a running back in the first round, but if we can forget about draft capital for a second, he is a great fit with his quickness and ball-tracking and ability as a pass-catcher.
But I also thought we’d see more of him making guys miss. Pro Football Focus did not chart him with any forced missed tackles against the Browns. But he did have 39 last year, and averaged 3.03 yards after contact, so he’s not a bum.
He has a lot of specific strengths that fit really well with this team. But it’s also true that a running back in this system is really well-positioned for success with so many opportunities to run against a light box. He has some deficiencies in pass protection that defenses game-plan toward.
My guess is that he’ll have a handful of games this year where he looks like a star, and that his production will improve as the offensive line gels and strengthens.
But I also don’t think he’s ever going to change the minds of those who believe a first-round pick on a running back is a waste when you have Patrick Mahomes.
I think the Big eight* schools want nothing more than whatever is best for them individually. I believe that is the entire extent of what they want.
* I’m workshopping some phrases on this. Here, it’s a play on the old Big 8, but instead of the “8,” which looks pretty rad, it’s spelled out in all lowercase letters to signify weakness. Please let me know what you think.
Now, if what they want happens to also make Oklahoma and Texas miserable, that’s a heck of a nice bonus, but these schools have been close enough to the cliff’s edge that self-survival is No. 1 by a bunch.
Actually, I thought KU AD Travis Goff said the quiet part out loud the other day:
“What’s best for Kansas doesn’t change regardless of conference discussion or speculation. It’s still what’s best for KU, and it still puts us in the most positive, strengthened position we can be in the league we’re in most importantly, and for all the unknowns that are out there …
“Two months ago, nobody knew what was happening. So for us, it’s all about what we know. And what we know is we’ve got to get better in a variety of fashions. And we have the most potential I think — I’m biased — but I think as much or more potential as any other A5, Power Five athletics program in the country. So that’s where we’re focused …
“We’re less secure now than we were eight weeks ago, and maybe significantly financially less secure. The facts are there’s most likely a scenario where when we do a new deal with a makeup where we likely can’t stay at the level we’re at.”
Translation: No, the future isn’t awesome in the Big 12, so yes, we are open for realignment business.
Goff is the only AD I’ve seen who’s gone this far publicly, but every AD in the league is thinking and operating the same way. They’d be irresponsible if they’re not. Different schools have different paths, and more or less to offer a new league, but they’re all acting in their own self-interest.
Bob Bowlsby can talk about trust all he wants, but he also knows that there is no trust, which is why they’re in this situation in the first place.
They can — and probably will — try to present this new front of trust and blame all the problems on schools that are either no longer in the league or on the way out. But do you really think Goff trusts that Iowa State AD Jamie Pollard isn’t making calls to the Big 10?
Do you really think Oklahoma State AD Chad Weiberg didn’t read Goff’s words and make the same conclusions we are?
Nobody has anything more than guesses, but it’s not hard to imagine the Big 12 sticking together. BYU, UCF, Houston and Cincinnati were the four best non-P5 schools to add.
The league will probably be better in basketball and should remain the fourth- or fifth-best football league for the foreseeable future. Their revenues will be lower than the Pac 12 and ACC, but higher than the Mountain West and AAC. This is not the worst outcome after Texas and Oklahoma blew the whole thing up.
But schools owe it to themselves to see if there’s a better outcome for them somewhere else. Marriages of convenience don’t usually last.
Oh, I’d be surprised if he’s not the starting left fielder on opening day.
You never know for certain, and the lineup origami could lead the Royals to want a spot for someone else in left field. Maybe another club comes calling and offers surplus value.
There could be some talk of an extension. He’s arbitration-eligible for 2022 and scheduled for free agency after that. If an extension were to happen, this is the offseason to do it. I don’t have a good feel for that either way.
My sense is that free agency would appeal to him. That’s always been a reward for players, a chance to have some control over their future. He’s been what the Royals expected, and I assume they’d be happy to have him beyond next season. But I also think they have some intriguing guys in the system and might rather use the money somewhere else.
You know I don’t like to give vague answers here, but there are just so many factors at play.
There’s not an outcome that should shock anyone, but my expectation would be that he plays for the Royals next season and then hits free agency. The Royals are beginning to have a lot of moving parts in their projected lineup, and they might decide an open corner-outfield spot wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
But he’s also a good player, and by all accounts a good teammate. If he goes for an OPS of .800 or so next year and the Royals jump up in the standings, then each side will have some tough decisions.
I’m going to keep screaming this: I want to see what Bobby Witt Jr. looks like in center field.
Mondesi can obviously play third base, but my guess is the Royals want to see what he looks like in the outfield, too.
Melendez has great hands and a strong arm. We haven’t seen much of him at third base, but this was a nice play:
What I’m saying here is you could do worse than this lineup
Merrifield 2B
Lopez SS
Mondesi RF
Perez C
Santana DH
Witt Jr CF
Benintendi LF
Pratto 1B
Melendez 3B
Please pay much less attention to the batting order than the defensive lineup. You’d still have Dozier playing a lot at third base and right field. Mondesi would take turns at DH and third base and on the bench. Kyle Isbel will get his chances. The Royals can bring Hanser Alberto back through arbitration next year.
That’s a really interesting mix. Versatile skill-sets, positional versatility, young pieces mixed with veterans.
There are a lot of unknowns there, including with three rookies, but that can be a fun group.
None of this is to dismiss the possibility of a trade. But I think you need to be careful, because if you trade Melendez then you’re going to need a catcher again if Perez gets hurt or has to continue to take more days as the DH.
Well, dangit, this feels like one of those situations where you’re asking a fun and harmless question and I’m going to take it six levels deeper than you want, but here goes:
The quickest answer I can give you is that I decided I wanted to spend the rest of my life with a woman I’d known since the seventh grade, and who lived hundreds of miles away, and I did this at basically the same moment I turned down a job that would have allowed me to move to be with her.
It worked out!
This is a really weird business, and there were a lot of people who tried to talk me out of this career choice.
Sports are silly. Media is a terrible industry to work in. The hours. The stress. The pay. And don’t you want to do something that makes a difference in the world?
I heard all of it, and I’m glad I did, because it made me question the choices and realize I felt strongly enough that I just had to try. Had to at least see where this could go. And I’m so thankful I did. I never expected get this job at the age I did, the opportunity to really grow into it.
But there’s another side to this, and maybe I’m oversharing now, but I wish I had more of this in me.
I’m not talking about professionally. In the 11 years I’ve been a sports columnist here there’s only been one other job in journalism that I’ve really considered. I know the gigs I’m supposed to be interested in, but I’m not. I don’t think I’d be good or happy doing the jobs I’m supposed to want.
As it turns out, I really like Kansas City. I really like the connections I’ve built here.
But I do wonder if I should have taken more risks along the way. Social risks. Financial risks. Maybe this is just grass-is-greener stuff, or just overthinking, but I wish I would have used money I didn’t really have to take trips I never would have forgotten when I was in my 20s.
I wish I would have worked harder to see if I could make my high school baseball team. I wish I would have taken more chances in college, and opened myself up to more new experiences. Made myself more uncomfortable and done it more often.
It’s hard to say these are major regrets, because I’m thrilled with how everything turned out. But it’s just that at the time I didn’t see the point, but now I look back and realize that when you’re older you’ll never regret a chance you took when you were younger, regardless of how it turned out.
That’s something we’re trying to get into our kids now. Work hard. Be ambitious. Take risks.
Man, the Minutes have a way of taking some winding dang paths, huh?
This week, I’m particularly grateful for this moment on Monday when our 5-year-old checked out a library book specifically because he knew his brother would like it. I mean, come on.
This story was originally published September 14, 2021 at 5:00 AM.