Mellinger Minutes: Chiefs’ defense, over-analyzing, Royals’ future + Big 12’s mistakes
We are going to talk about preseason disclaimers soon, so right now, here at the top, let’s just start with the take:
The Chiefs’ defense could be significantly better than most around the country believe.
The offense sucks the oxygen, and that’s not a criticism. That’s the way it should be. Patrick Mahomes is a rocket ship, and he’s taking a lot of folks along for the ride.
But for now, hopefully you’d agree that this space does not ignore Mahomes, so hopefully we can take a minute of the Minutes to talk about the defense.
A year ago, the Chiefs’ biggest issue on defense was a lack of pass rush. They finished 19th in sacks, 12th in pressure percentage, and 22nd overall in Pro Football Focus’ pass rush metric.
Those are not horrible numbers, but they are far below a championship standard, particularly with as much emphasis as the front office and coaches put on it.
There were many reasons for this, and not just Frank Clark, but the upshot is the Chiefs signed Jarran Reed, gave Chris Jones a new role, and will count on continued emergence from Tershawn Wharton, Khalen Saunders, Mike Danna and others.
Jones has looked spectacular in camp practices and two preseason games. He’s quick enough to get it done on the outside, and could take advantage of the offense not knowing where he’ll be lining up. Reed is going to be more appreciated by Chiefs fans as the season goes on, and his signing along with Derrick Nnadi’s improvement gives the whole experiment some juice. The group is good enough that Taco Charlton was an early cut.
The linebackers didn’t have enough speed last year, which was exploited by tight ends and running backs in the pass game. But Anthony Hitchens looks a tick quicker, Willie Gay was one of the defense’s best players in camp before his concussion, and Nick Bolton has the look of a long-time starter.
The coverage was usually pretty good last year, but they’ll miss Bashaud Breeland. The coaches are high on Mike Hughes, and if he plays as well as the internal expectations then the Vikings are going to be roasted for not getting more in the trade. L’Jarius Sneed analysis usually starts with him being a draft steal, but the more he plays the more he looks like a star regardless of draft position.
If the Chiefs can stay healthy and get progress with some of the down roster guys like Deandre Baker then they’ll have enough in the back end. Juan Thornhill’s health, focus, and confidence will have a disproportionate impact on how close the defense can be to its ceiling. Tyrann Mathieu remains at the height of his considerable powers.
It’s a well constructed group. They have different players with different strengths for different moments, with Jones a constant problem at the line of scrimmage and Mathieu anchoring the entire thing in the back.
This is an offense’s league, and that’s where we’ll put most of our attention. The rules are such that quarterbacks and receivers will always have the advantage, and if the Chiefs offense is as efficient as within the defense is going to take everyone’s most aggressive shot.
So we don’t know what the numbers will look like, but there is every reason to expect this defense to be significantly improved from last season, and perhaps even as good or better than the one that formed over the last half of the 2019 season.
Remember how that season ended?
This week’s reading recommendation is Ed Yong on how the pandemic now ends, and the eating recommendation is the shrimp fried rice at Lulu’s.
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The 2013 team won 86 games with a core that was almost exclusively on the young side of 30. They had a disastrous May, but played their way back and stayed above .500 for all of August and September.
The comparison is natural, and worth considering, but I don’t think it’s apples and apples.
If this goes the way the Royals hope, the 2021 team will be remembered as the transition from wheels spinning to wins happening.
One of the differences between now and 2013 is that if the Royals are going to turn this push into the playoffs they’re going to do it with some guys who aren’t on the big league roster right now playing big roles.
Bobby Witt Jr. is the most obvious, but the full realization of what the Royals have been doing in the minor leagues would also include MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, Will Klein, Asa Lacy, Kyle Isbel, Vinnie Pasquantino, Austin Cox, Michael Massey and others.
They’re doing it a different way than the first time, is the point, so I hope we don’t get too caught up into this idea that we have to compare moments in time.
There’s a lot happening with the Royals right now to feel good about.
But let’s let it happen and see where it goes. We’re not there yet.
Spring training results are close. And if you’re ever looking for a rabbit hole, check out the fan site of a struggling side in the English Premier League. Mercy.
But I’m with you on this, the NFL preseason is the GOAT of over-analysis.
It’s tempting, right?
Some of this is because we just haven’t had football in so long. We’ve missed it, and we’re in this sort of honeymoon phase where we just see the good and ignore the bad. Every receiver who looks promising is going to be a star, even if in reality he’s going against guys who aren’t going to be on rosters.
Some of it is because we can always talk ourselves into believing any of the bad stuff will either be cleaned up by the regular season, or maybe it’s just the result of someone working their way back into football shape, or trying new techniques or methods. We can forget that in the regular season one bad quarter can ruin a game plan and be the topic of discussion around town for a week.
The mental side of football tends to not show up as much — less pressure on the score, simpler game plans, etc.
But we can all forget that at times, right?
You didn’t ask for a list — a list??? — but I’m going to give you one anyway. Here are some Chiefs preseason trends, ranked in order of credibility.
In other words, how likely are these things to continue into the regular season?
1. Offensive line is as good as expected, and faster.
This group will have some ugly moments. I keep telling myself that, anyway.
They’re young, including three rookies, and have never played together before. They’re picking up a complicated offense with a quarterback who is very specific about what he wants and who often struggles with staying in the pocket. Stunts, in particular, could be a problem here.
But it’s weird that we’re two games into the preseason and haven’t seen any of that show up.
The first-team offensive line has not been called for a penalty, has opened huge holes in the run game, and any criticism about the pass protection so far would come across as nitpicking.
I still believe they’re going to struggle at times. But I also thought Mahomes would have some ugly moments his first year as a starter. Still waiting on that lol.
2. Mecole Hardman’s roller-coaster ride.
Is this cheating? It might be cheating. Because he’s just 23 years old, and everything we’ve seen so far is batches of big plays interrupting missed chances. Hardman has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity here with the sport’s best quarterback and Sammy Watkins’ departure.
My guess is that he’ll be a little more productive than the 41 catches and 560 yards from last year, but still give plenty of opportunities to those who want to slam him with DK Metcalf comparisons.
One thing to keep in mind: If the offensive line really is as good as a lot of us think, and the run game becomes more of a credible threat, then nobody stands to gain more than Hardman because more defenders are going to be closer to the line of scrimmage and Mahomes should have an extra beat or two to throw.
3. Defensive line gets consistent pressure.
I’ll be honest with you guys: I carried some skepticism into this preseason about whether the Chris Jones experiment would work.
I wondered if it would weaken the Chiefs in two spots and take away from some of his most important talents. The move felt a little desperate.
I still wonder if he can establish enough of a threat around the edge to keep tackles honest on his inside moves, but it’s also easy to see how the element of surprise can work in Jones’ favor. He’ll be stronger than tackles are accustomed to from edge rushers, and he has a burst that is just hard to prepare for.
This is the vision the front office has always had — stack pass rushers along the defensive line, with a heavy rotation that can keep guys fresh for the second half when the opponent is likely to be chasing leads.
So, well, I’m looking at that list now and I actually think all three of those things are going to happen so maybe I’m part of the problem here with putting too much credibility into the preseason.
I do think there’s a chance that Daurice Fountain makes the 53-man roster, and that in two or three years we’re wondering, Hey, remember that time Daurice Fountain made the 53 and people wanted him to be WR2?
It should be said that the defensive backfield is one wrong injury away from having some significant problems, but there’s a lot of teams in that same situation.
The other day the Royals made an out on the base paths. I can’t remember exactly what happened — I believe it was at home plate — but I had this thought: Man, seems like the Royals have made more outs on the bases than you’d want.
Then a reader emailed in with the same question, so I looked it up, and would you believe the Royals are +9.1 in FanGraphs’ base running metric? Would you be surprised they rank third in baseball, and second in the American League (Tampa is at +9.4)?
I don’t have the breakdown about where the outs have occurred, or which extra bases the Royals have taken, but it’s a good reminder that sometimes our eyes can lie to us. An even better reminder that those of us who primarily watch one team can sort of lose touch with what the other 29 are doing.
I’d point this out, too: the Royals should be among the leaders in base running. That’s less a bonus than it is an expectation.
They’re 13th in OPS among AL teams, with Sal Perez the only hitter with an adjusted OPS above league average. They’re also relatively athletic, particularly with Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield, Michael A. Taylor and Hunter Dozier. Andrew Benintendi moves well, but if anything has shown a tendency to be a little too aggressive at times.
The point here is that sitting back and waiting for the three-run home run would be a poor strategy, so the Royals are smart to use their strengths to put pressure on the other side’s pitcher and defense.
At times that’s going to mean they run into an out.
But when that happens, it’s worth remembering that they’re running their way into runs, too.
Merrifield and Lopez are a combined 55 of 57 on stolen base attempts, by the way.
That seems impressive.
Look, I once ranked the Peanut locations and presented it as #content so I’m not here to throw stones at anyone.
But let’s try to move the Mondesi conversation forward a little. A lot of you are tired of his injuries and just want it to end, even if that means a trade for 10 cents on the dollar or even a release.
And I get it. I do.
But it’s an emotional response to a situation that needs to be handled diligently. Here’s where we can move this thing forward.
The days of the organization planning a future around Mondesi as SS1 are done. Been done for months, really. Some positions mean more than others. The Royals have been consistent and deliberate about building with athletes, which means an extra premium on what everybody calls the premium positions — center field, shortstop and catcher.
You don’t need someone to play 162 games there, but it’s not like a corner outfield or infield spot where you can usually move pieces around and not take a step back. If you can’t count on your shortstop, it’s a problem.
But giving up on Mondesi makes no sense. He’s not taking opportunities away from anyone, and if you take a step back with a deep breath I’m not sure how the argument can be made that what he’s shown on the field already isn’t worth swallowing the frustration of the injuries.
I haven’t talked to anyone about this. I’m just thinking out loud here. But:
Nicky Lopez has earned that job. He leads the team in on-base percentage, and once there is 18-for-18 in stolen base attempts. He’s second among all big league shortstops in FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average metric, which aligns with what we all see with our eyeballs. He’s an exemplary teammate. He’s earned the right to be the big-league shortstop.
Bobby Witt Jr. is a next-level athlete with no glaring weakness. He can play big-league shortstop, and probably do it pretty well. But the Royals have already been thinking of him in other positions, and I’m curious what he’d look like in center field. He’s more than enough athlete — speed, arm, quickness, instincts. If he could do it he’d solve a major long-term unknown, with the added benefit that he’s your backup shortstop if anything happens to Lopez.
That leaves us with Mondesi. What if the Royals deployed him as a sort of super utility guy? You could play him four or five times a week around the diamond, adding to the roster’s positional versatility, easing the physical stress of everyday shortstop, and hopefully filling holes as they inevitably present themselves throughout a season.
I have no idea if that would work. The Padres are trying something similar with Fernando Tatis Jr., and his injuries have not been as frequent as Mondesi’s.
The Royals are in a strong position here. I guess that’s where I see this so differently than a lot of you. It’s easy to just focus on Mondesi and the injuries, but I see a team with three guys who can play above average big league shortstop.
There are a lot of teams that would trade, even with the uncertainty around Mondesi.
The Cubs are a mess. You can only play the team in front of you, so it’s not fair to dismiss those games, but woof. That franchise is leaning into the tank in a way that must make the Orioles proud.
But the Royals also beat the Astros three of our last week. They took two series against the White Sox in a span of two weeks recently. They entered Monday’s game 18-13 overall since July 20. They have one of baseball’s best records against first-place teams.
You can be skeptical. A team with losing streaks of 11, five, six, and nine games can’t expect the benefit of the doubt.
But there are some legitimately good things happening here.
Salvador Perez is somehow better than ever in his 30s. Carlos Hernandez looks like a front-of-the-rotation talent, a big guy with velocity and movement who’s been overshadowed by the 2018 draft class.
Brad Keller is allowing a .239/.313/.350 slash line with a 3.35 ERA and 50 strikeouts across 48 1/3 innings in eight starts since the beginning of July. Daniel Lynch 2.0 has been even better — .216/.293/.342 with a 2.35 ERA across 30 2/3 innings and five starts.
Brady Singer’s FIP indicates he’s significantly out pitched more traditional measurements. Kris Bubic has been good or great in all but one of his outings since the All-Star break. You probably saw where Baseball America recently ranked the Royals farm system third overall.
The burden of proof is on the Royals. They need to take the step from signs of progress to consistently competitive across a long season.
So I’m not here to tell you it’s a pennant next year. But I am here telling you the pieces are forming.
What a wild career, already.
Nobody knows anything for sure, because baseball will always surprise you, but there has been talk of Perez moving off first base for years — this goes back to the World Series seasons, even.
That’s always been the thing — he’s great as a catcher, but if he’s a DH or first baseman the lack of OBP starts to matter more.
Thing is, he’s giving very little indication that he’s about to move off catcher. He’ll almost certainly DH more this season than ever before, but he’s also third in baseball in innings caught. “Built different” has turned into the sort of catchphrase that’s often used ironically, but Salvy is not made like you or me.
I bring this up because it’s just impossible to know what the next three or five or eight years will look like. It’s easy to imagine him aging like Yadi Molina, and playing his sport’s most demanding position way past the expiration date of normal humans. It would also shock nobody if time wins soon. It happens to everyone.
I don’t know where he needs to get for the Hall of Fame. He’s at 27.9 career WAR, which is not particularly close to the average Hall of Fame catcher, but he also might just now be passing his career’s halfway point.
Sports media is often (rightfully) mocked for focusing too much on legacy, but if we’re talking about Hall of Fame we are inherently talking about legacy. And if that’s where we are it’s going to matter than he has seven (and counting) All-Star games, five (and counting?) Gold Gloves and three (and counting?) Silver Sluggers.
It’s going to matter that he was a foundational player on one of the most unlikely championship runs in modern baseball history, and it’s going to matter even more if were able to do it again.
Molina is the most common comp, and through his age-31 season — which is where Perez is now — he was a slightly less effective hitter by OPS and adjusted OPS. But he’s remained relatively productive into his late 30s, which is a rare thing and as much as anything what’s bolstering his Hall of Fame case.
Perez already has more home runs than Molina. He trails Molina by three All-Star games, four Gold Gloves and one World Series championship.
The place I keep coming back to on Perez is that he has a lot of ground to cover in terms of induction, but that he’s put himself in position that he’s capable of doing what’s needed.
Sort of?
The problems of today have nothing to do with Prop 48, or a vote that happened a generation ago.
But the problems of today have everything to do with the dynamics of that decision, and the sore feelings represented there.
It’s been said that Texas has destroyed every league it’s ever been in, and my guess is the SEC is too big to fail™ but either way the Big 12 had an expiration date from the beginning.
There was too much distrust, too many disparate priorities, too many people who thought they had the answers and no universally respected leader to keep the whole thing together.
The hope I had for the Big 12 staying together was that Texas and Oklahoma would see it as their best path to a national championship in football — financial and recruiting advantages over their conference rivals that would tilt everything their way.
That’s a pretty terrible structure, by the way. How many of us have been in relationships so one-sided that their only reasons for existing are that a better option hasn’t materialized, breakups are inconvenient, and one side is getting everything it asks for?
And how many of those relationships last?
The chance at stability was to get Texas and Oklahoma to buy in to the broader mission, and to see themselves as part of something. That obviously didn’t happen, and the money grew so big that the SEC could offer substantially bigger payouts.
Now, I might be on an island here, but I still see this as good for Texas and Oklahoma only if it’s part of a bigger play down the road.
Because with the status quo it’s still much easier for them to have championship football in the Big 12. The payouts will be bigger in the SEC, but their rivals’ payouts will also be bigger. If I have $50 and you have $25, I have a better chance of winning than if we both have $100.
But if the pitch was that the SEC is going to break away from the NCAA and form its own rules and keep the TV money to themselves … well, that’s a different analysis. The NCAA is weakened, and continues weakening. Now is a good moment in history to do something drastic.
I hate this for all of the remaining Big 12 schools, not just KU and K-State. There are no good ways out, only options that range from bad to catastrophic.
Imagine being in a situation where you’re stuck pretending to be strong when you are weak, hoping none of your peers get an opportunity you don’t, and angling to get an opportunity that would leave your peers even weaker than they are. Imagine the best-case scenario being that the Big 12 can continue to serve as the lowest bar to clear for smaller profile programs to be able to pretend they’re big-time.
That’s where the Big 12 is, hoping to get back to an honest league name by adding schools it has rejected in the past.
All of it stinks.
Heat? Yes.
Because of politics? Can’t think of one, unless you count the apparently controversial take that America should spend more energy growing in a way that inspires everyone to stand for the national ovation than we should being a country with forced patriotism.
But this intentional. I’m a sports columnist, not a political reporter, and while we can all recognize that the two overlap at times I sincerely hope you are even less interested in my politics than I am in yours.
It’s not that I don’t have political opinions, or that I avoid talking about them in my personal life. But I’ve found that productive political conversations don’t often happen publicly, and there’s just so much lost when people aren’t face-to-face with at least some understanding about where the other person is coming from.
I have a few points of view that aren’t going to change. One is that sports should be unifying and fun. Another is that I want to be the kind of sports columnist I’d want to read if I had a real job.
Me talking about tax policy or war decisions ain’t exactly fitting in either of those boxes.
But I do wonder if that’s an increasingly outdated approach. Teams and leagues are increasingly feeling pressure to take stands on various issues, which I don’t love.
I get why that’s happening in the business world. Customers are increasingly considering a company’s financial contributions and other factors when shopping, and that’s fine if you’re choosing between Coke and Pepsi, but if it means shutting out people from feeling a part of sports then I think we’ve gone off track.
But that’s probably a conversation for another day.
For now, no, I’m not going to be endorsing political candidates.
Well …
… this is definitely a record number of inquiries about my column mug.
But if the people have questions, I have the responsibility to provide answers. Sort of.
My guess is that the picture they use now is six or seven years old. The most accurate description I’ve heard is “it looks like you just smelled a fart.”
If I remember correctly, the picture was taken in 2015. Nobody ever told me this, but I’ve wondered if the 2014 Royals run caught people by surprise and they sort of wanted to clean the place up for the encore run. Wearing a suit is about as cleaned up as I’m going to get.
My instinct is that pictures should be changed every year or two, just to stay current and stop from appearing stale. But I also know it’s easier to just keep running the same picture, and I don’t think my appearance is changing much at this point. By the way, you should see the picture on Denny Matthews’ company ID. It’s incredible. Might legitimately be from his first season calling games. The picture is decades old.
If I’m honest, I don’t write a lot of Suit Columns. I tend to write like I talk, and hopefully this space is an honest reflection of who I am, and I’m very much a flops-and-a-tri-blend kind of fella.
In the fall and winter: hoodie.
That’s funny you mention the column after my mom died. I think she secretly hated that I preferred to dress casual, and was genuinely disappointed I found a career where I could usually get away with it. If I took a different picture for every column, that one definitely would have been my nicest pants, a tie, and a blazer. She seemed to prefer that look to a suit.
Suit columns: basically anything from 2011 to 2012 about Scott Pioli, because a man should always wear a suit to court.
Other than that, I’m having a hard time. Sports are supposed to be fun. Suits have their place, and maybe I’ll start wearing them more often someday, but for me a nice pair of jeans and a fresh shirt with a collar can go a long way.
But you’re right about the Minutes. Sometimes we’re probably closer to pants optional than anything else.
This week I’m particularly grateful for our 5-year-old’s first week of kindergarten. He showed a few parts of his personality he usually hides. Seeing how proud he is when he gets home is next level. Watching them grow up is just mind blowing.
This story was originally published August 24, 2021 at 5:00 AM.