Kansas Jayhawks might be the least predictable team in the least predictable tournament
In normal times we’d be talking about Kansas potentially seeing the strange fate of being a second-round underdog to a lower-seeded team. We’d be talking about a bracket of death of sorts, with two-time player of the year Luka Garza waiting in a Sweet 16 matchup and juggernaut Gonzaga in the Elite Eight.
That is not what we’re talking about.
These are not normal times.
The biggest question around the Jayhawks is not about how they match up Saturday with Eastern Washington — my several minutes of EWU research tells me they are very experienced and shoot a lot of threes, which can make for a dangerous underdog — but about who exactly will be available.
“We’re going to Indy (Monday) with a healthy group, it’s just a smaller group,” KU coach Bill Self said.
The NCAA Tournament is the least predictable sports event in America. This year’s tournament will be less predictable than most. And even in that context, Kansas is among the least predictable teams in the 68-team field.
This is a group that played its way from spitting distance of the bubble in early February all the way up to a No. 3 seed by winning eight of its last nine, including five wins over ranked opponents.
But those good vibes got trucked by COVID-19 — David McCormack and Tristan Enaruna sat out the Big 12 Tournament because of protocols, and then a third player tested positive, knocking KU out after the conference quarterfinals. Self did not identify the player, but a source on Monday told The Star that Jalen Wilson didn’t make the trip to Indianapolis along with McCormack and Enaruna.
We don’t have much certainty, other than Wilson being out for the Eastern Washington game and a potential round of 32 game next Monday. McCormack and Enaruna could return this week, but as Self said, “you expect the unexpected.”
Even as case numbers around the country decline and vaccine distribution increases, it still feels weird to talk about a virus that caused a global pandemic in strictly basketball terms. Weird is what we have, so particularly with McCormack among those affected there is only guesswork about how KU will perform.
This was never one of Self’s best teams at KU, but it was a team that found its best way to win. They will have to find new ways now, including Tyon Grant-Foster receiving more opportunities. The Jayhawks will lean heavily on Ochai Agbaji and Marcus Garrett, especially this week.
Self, for whatever it’s worth, appears confident. Some of this is performance art we’ve seen every year — he sets high expectations early, picks at flaws through much of the season, and then presents the best face possible in March.
There are a million excuses available for any team in any season, and that is particularly true of this Kansas team in this season.
There is little doubt that Self’s public message has a purpose he wants his players to feel: doesn’t matter about COVID, doesn’t matter about a potentially difficult draw, doesn’t matter about an awkward schedule.
All that matters is performance, starting this week.
“Since that’s the draw we got I might as well be comfortable with it and like it,” Self said.
The Jayhawks will have played just two games in three weeks on Saturday, and McCormack’s transformation from liability to one of the Big 12’s best players was the single biggest reason for KU’s rise.
Even if we assume he will continue to test negative and be available on Saturday, how strong will he be?
High-level teams and athletes prepare on every detail, but asked his plan for how he’d bring three players back from COVID-19 protocols for the NCAA Tournament, Self essentially shrugged his shoulders.
“I’ve never gone through this,” Self said. “I don’t have a plan in place. A lot will depend on how they feel, a lot will depend on what our medical staff says that they can possibly do. I know there’s some people that have gone through this and they’ve really labored with it, especially those who had severe symptoms.
“I know there’s some that have gone through this that didn’t have severe symptoms that come back and be closer to full strength than what you probably anticipate. So it’s a crapshoot.”
The whole thing is a guess. The Jayhawks could be the team that finished as one of the country’s hottest, or they could be a flawed group whose relatively small margin for error was blown to bits by COVID-19.
And much of it is out of their control.
This story was originally published March 14, 2021 at 7:49 PM.