Mellinger Minutes: nerdy Super Bowl breakdown, key to beating Brady + whoopee cushions
America is not only a place where adult humans dress in onesie superhero costumes to ask professional football players whether a hot dog is a sandwich, but a place where scenes like this happen so many times at so many Super Bowl media days that the lack of, say, fans paying $29 to watch some random woman go podium to podium asking strangers to marry her qualifies as strange.
But that’s where we are.
That’s the society we’ve built.
If there’s not a fake Tom Brady wandering around a bunch of cameras and microphones then THAT is a sign of the strangeness of our time.
So, you know, welcome to the strangest Super Bowl media day ever, and strange because it completely lacked strangeness. Brought to you, just like every other person-to-person interaction approved by public health officials, by video calls.
“A crazy media day,” Brady said. “I’m sitting here in an empty room. This is very different than the other nine experiences.”
By the way, is that a subtle flex by Brady there? The other NINE experiences? Or is he merely saying something that’s 100 percent factual? Maybe both?
Anyway, they actually changed the name of this annual dance a few years back. It’s now called “opening night,” and I’d make a joke about the name change being one more example of corporate America committing media erasure but that joke would hit a little too close to home.
Moving along.
The thing that struck here is how relative normalcy — we’re talking global pandemic, masks-are-normal, seeing-old-highlights-with-crowded-stadiums-now-feels-weird standards — can feel strange.
Because what’s so weird about a bunch of reporters connecting with a bunch of newsmakers through technology? And asking them, with a few exceptions, questions relevant to their work?
This is the type of thing that happens literally thousands of times every day.
But somehow, whether we realized it or not (and whether we liked it or not), the absurdity of watching a late night talk shot sidekick give Bill Belichick a sleeveless poncho with Belichick’s name on it before asking for a hug (“I’m good,” Belichick replied) became normal.
For one day, at least, hearing football players asked football questions felt strange and I have one prevailing emotion:
I want normal again, but don’t need more than one day a year of Tom Brady receiving a throw pillow with his name on it.
This week’s reading recommendation is Kevin Clark on Tom Brady rewriting the past, and the eating recommendation is the ribeye at Jess and Jim’s.
Thanks to everyone who’s listened to our Mellinger Minutes For Your Ears podcast, and here is a big warm invitation to start if you haven’t already. We’re out from behind the paywall and free on Apple or Spotify or Stitcher or wherever you get your shows.
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Scripting out a 25-year-old’s case to overtake a 43-year-old’s ownership of the GOAT label is somehow both absurd by rule and reasonable in the moment.
Honestly, it’s sort of mandatory in a matchup like this. Your boy put in his time.
The snarky side of me — which, depending on the moment, can be the much bigger side — wants to say that we might see 10 more of these matchups because Brady will play until the aliens takeover (and beyond, assuming he’s one of them).
But realistically this probably will be the only time these guys face each other in the Super Bowl, and if Mahomes’ standard is not just to be great but to be the greatest ever (and it is) then it’s hard to see a credible case that doesn’t include a win on Sunday.
And that’s true for a lot of reasons.
Fair or not, quarterbacks are judged on Super Bowls and if Brady goes up 7-1 then that’s an enormous mountain to climb.
Brady would also have a fairly airtight argument — the only quarterback to beat Mahomes in the playoffs (at least so far), with one win in Mahomes’ stadium and the other at an age when most quarterbacks are popping aspirin after a round of 18.
Even if we can make the leap and imagine Mahomes winning six more Super Bowls, Brady would have a heck of a tiebreaker.
But if Mahomes gets a second championship (at a younger age than Brady did, by the way) then it’s at least in play.
And if the argument can be made that his loss to Brady came on a coin flip that prevented him from getting the ball in overtime, and his win came in the Super Bowl, then maybe his case has some credibility even if he finishes with — AND THIS IS STILL SO MANY SUPER BOWLS — “only” four or five championships.
Barring some truly extraordinary developments, general sentiment will be pulling for Mahomes to win the argument if it’s close. He’s more fun, more spectacular, and less attached to both cheating and Bill Belichick.
Mahomes is, objectively, the more aesthetically pleasing player to watch. He is changing the way quarterbacks are viewed in a way that Brady has not*.
* I made this point in the column, and a smart reader made a point about how the 2007 Patriots changed how offense is played. But for me, that’s more about coaching and personnel than it is anything that Brady did individually.
So if Mahomes can win this Super Bowl then the GOAT stuff feels at least possible in a way that it wouldn’t be if he loses.
Also: this is all ridiculous. There’s so much space between there and here.
It’s just that Mahomes has done nothing other than the ridiculous, so we might as well talk about it.
I’m not going back and watching film of all those games, but it starts with the ability to pressure without blitzing.
That’s something like the magic answer for any situation — football’s version of a basketball team “making shots” — but it’s the truth. On Monday, former Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora slid into Brady’s video call and honestly I don’t even remember what he asked.
What I remember is Umenyiora saying he was rooting for Brady, and Brady saying he was glad he wasn’t playing against Umenyiora this weekend, and me immediately wondering how the Chiefs are going to twist the exchange into massive disrespect.
And the other thing I remember is Brady talking about Umenyiora putting him on his back. Which was more than just a football compliment.
The Giants sacked Brady five times in Super Bowl XLII, the one best remembered for David Tyree’s helmet catch and the Patriots finishing 18-1.
Everything an offense tries to do is made exponentially more difficult when the quarterback is under consistent pressure, a point that is even truer when the pressure comes without wild blitzes.
But that Super Bowl was a long time ago, so it’s probably more relevant to see what Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs defenses have done against Brady.
In 2019, the Chiefs won 23-16 in New England. The Chiefs sacked Brady three times, and pressured him on 16 of 40 drop backs, according to Pro Football Focus. Brady completed just five of 13 passes for 43 yards against pressure.
The Chiefs also intercepted Brady, a brilliant play by Bashaud Breeland in which he tricked Brady into believing the Chiefs were playing man when in fact it was zone.
Breeland showed press man coverage at the snap, then bailed to zone and made the play in a spot Brady believed would be open.
You might remember the Patriots’ final play that night, too. Another play by Breeland. He was lined up over Julian Edelman in the slot, with film work that convinced him one of two routes was coming — a cross or a corner.
But Breeland also knew the Chiefs were blitzing, which meant Brady wouldn’t have time for the cross. So he sat on the corner, and made the play.
In week 12 of this season, pressure was again the Chiefs’ friend in what turned out to be a 27-24 win. Brady completed just four of 10 passes with two interceptions against pressure, according to PFF.
It’s interesting that Spagnuolo blitzed Brady on half of his 42 drop backs. The blitzes came from everywhere, and Brady wasn’t able to diagnose them as well as he usually does — completing 11 of 21 with those two interceptions against the blitz.
This play is a good example. The Chiefs crowd the line of scrimmage, sending seven at Brady. The Bucs’ line actually holds up well enough, but Tyrann Mathieu beats the running back’s block, taking the life out of Brady’s throw downfield for Scott Miller.
Again, Breeland is there for the interception.
This is obviously oversimplifying, but Spagnuolo has been successful pressuring Brady in ways that other defenses haven’t. If Mahomes and the offense can score early (like they did in week 12) it makes this process a little easier, because you know the Bucs are passing.
You can say this about most football games, but I believe it’s particularly true here: this Super Bowl will be largely won at the line of scrimmage.
If the Chiefs’ makeshift line can give Mahomes a decent amount of time, then the Chiefs are going to pick apart the Bucs in the back. And if the Chiefs can pressure Brady, he’s going to struggle to keep up. If the opposite happens on either side of the ball then it’s going to be a lot more difficult.
This stat will make the rounds this week for good reason: Brady has completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt, 43 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 113.5 passer rating when not pressured this season.
He’s completed 41.7 percent for 5.3 yards per attempt, four touchdowns, six interceptions and a 51.2 passer rating against pressure.
That’s the whole thing right there. Pressure the man, win the game.
Well, OK, for our purposes here let’s define dark horse as anyone not on an enormous contract. That eliminates Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill on offense and Jones, Clark and Mathieu on defense.
Four come to mind, and really it’s two pairs.
On defense, if the Chiefs are able to pressure, Brady’s already diminished velocity drops even further and the secondary should have some opportunities.
As you saw in the clips above, Breeland has had some success against Brady and is more physical than most cornerbacks, which plays well against these racehorses the Bucs have at receiver.
Juan Thornhill played perhaps the best game of his professional career in the AFC Championship. He looks all the way back physically, which is no small thing after a midseason slump in which Andy Reid called him “a situational guy.” Thornhill is fast and longer than he appears, and that range could play well on passes that stay in the air a bit too long.
On offense, I keep thinking about that line of scrimmage, and they have no chance of being named Super Bowl MVP or anything for a lot of reasons but Mike Remmers and Andrew Wylie can tip the scales if they hold up well against Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett.
If that’s how it goes, few will talk about it in real time but it would show up on tape.
On a team especially full of emotional stars, Jones is the most emotional. There is a 100 percent chance he’ll talk trash to Brady at some point, and a 100 percent chance that the Bucs line won’t like it.
There will be jawing, perhaps even a shove or two but I’m not particularly worried about Jones throwing a punch and being thrown out, if that’s what you’re talking about.
He’s been on this stage before, of course, and has stayed on the right side of that emotional balance.
It’s a good point you make, and I’m not saying your worries are misguided. None of us would be shocked if Jones was flagged for a personal foul.
But my view is that those emotions are a critical part of what makes Jones great. If he’s not the guy dancing at the line of scrimmage during a commercial break, or the guy dog-cussing Brady facemask-to-facemask, I’m not sure he’s the guy making interior offensive linemen look like shade trees.
Andy Reid is famous for this Let Your Personality Show thing, and I would argue that mantra has been a particularly important part of how Jones (and Travis Kelce) reached stardom.
This is the single biggest challenge the Chiefs will face in this game, which is quite a thing to say when the other team’s quarterback has won six Super Bowls and gets to throw to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski.
The Bucs can wreck the Chiefs by pressuring with four, and they seem to know it. Maybe you saw what Bucs pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul said when asked about Chiefs lineman Mike Remmers.
“I didn’t even know who that was. Man, I’m not going to lie to you. Is this a tackle that you’re talking about? Like I said, I don’t care too much about it. They got to figure that out.”
Now, aside from the obvious point about the level of scouting involved when a man does not know the name of the man he’ll compete against* it does present an impressive level of arrogance.
* Chris Jones did this same thing recently, saying he didn’t know former teammate Mitch Morse played for the Bills until seeing him on the field before the game.
The Bucs will come after Mahomes. That’s always been defensive coordinator Todd Bowles’ focus, and it would be the focus of any defensive coordinator with a front four of Pierre-Paul, Shaq Barrett, William Ghoston and Ndamukong Suh.
But it’s also worth noting here that the Bucs blitz a lot. Only four teams blitz more often than the Bucs, according to Pro Football Reference, so it’s not just the front four you have to worry about.
The Chiefs have protected well in the playoffs, but they’ll need one more game of proof that they’re beyond the miscommunications that nearly wrecked the Falcons game.
I know I’m getting into the weeds here, but I can’t talk about the blitz numbers without emphasizing something we’ve written about before: the way teams defend the Chiefs is not and should not be the same as they defend other teams.
The Bucs blitzed on 39 percent of drop backs during the regular season. But Mahomes is famously good against the blitz, which is why the Bucs did it on just nine of his 53 (17 percent) drop backs in week 14.
So, it’s not about blitzes as much as it’s about pressure. The Chiefs will welcome blitzes. They could be derailed by pressure, which is a legitimate worry as they enter this game with their second choice at left tackle and third at right tackle.
All that said, I’ve come to believe that when a game presents a matchup this obvious — a pair of pirates rushing against a pair of backups — coaches are smart enough to make the necessary adjustments.
At that point, the cat-and-mouse game extends. If the Chiefs protect with quicker passes, that means they’re not stretching the field vertically and the Bucs’ safeties can crowd the line. If the Chiefs protect with an extra tight end or keeping the running back in, that’s fewer options for Mahomes and fewer threats for the Bucs’ defense. I’m also expecting the Chiefs to move the pocket often, left and right.
The reason the Chiefs have had unprecedented consistency with their success is they have answers to all the questions. It’s just interesting to see what opposing defenses ask.
OK, that’s it for the nerdy breakdowns of this game, at least until the end.
Let’s open it up a bit.
Will Tyreek Hill backflip? Yes -350, No +250.
Which will happen first: Mahomes flexes right or both biceps -110 or announcers mention he used to play baseball +100.
Will the losing team, at some point in the game, have posed for pictures in the end zone? Yes -150, No +90.
Will Troy Aikman watch this game longingly, knowing the outcome will be one quarterback further separating himself from Aikman or another one continuing to bum rush up the list of greats? Yes -10, No +5000.
Phil means the end of the 2017 season and, you know what? Let’s roll the tape.
Even all this time later, THIS IS STILL A RIDICULOUS THROW. My seat in the press box happened to be at precisely the right angle to watch this play develop, and beings that at that point I had only watched humans play quarterback and not unicorns, I kept thinking, No, no, no way, there’s no possible way he’s even going to try to ma-- and that’s when he threw a perfect strike to Robinson.
Now, the reaction Phil is talking about: I quite literally jumped out of my seat. It was like I’d just heard my name on the Price Is Right. Once on my feet, I hugged Terez, who had also not found it in himself to stay seated.
This is a thing that really happened, and I’d have been embarrassed anyway, but as I went back to my chair I peaked up at some of the Chiefs front office and PR staff who were sort of smirking and shaking their heads like, Oh, we got him in the bag now.
So, yeah. That’s what we’re talking about here.
It was the most unprofessional thing I’ve ever done, and I once forgot to make sure the desk got a story of mine because I was in such a rush to get to a bachelor party that was in a place where I didn’t get cell service so when I was finally able to check my voicemail I had like 14 messages from three different editors, each increasingly angry until finally my boss’ boss just said something like “I hope it was worth it” and hung up.
But, unlike that mistake, I do not regret jumping out of my seat and hugging Terez.
I do not regret it for a bunch of reasons. I’ll give you the primary two.
First, it was natural. It was authentic. Like a lot of people, I suppose, I spent too much of my life trying to figure out what I was supposed to act like. So I’ll never regret acting like myself, and being real.
Second, it was AN AMAZING throw. And you have to understand the context. Like Terez and I’m sure others, I’d spent much of that season hearing these fantastical tales of throws Mahomes made in practice, enough that it felt like either the greatest long con in locker room history or a seismic shift in how the Chiefs would play football.
I’m telling you this: in that moment — and he had other great throws in that game, including a no-look — I saw the next decade or so of my professional life and knew it would be an absolute blast.
I know we’ve talked about this before, but being a sports writer fundamentally shifts the way you watch and consume games. You root for moments, you tell stories, you spend your time chasing insight. You stop rooting for teams, and you start rooting for yourself.
And, brothers and sisters, I’m telling you that in that moment I saw the greatest gift of my sports writing life.
This is a personal question. I happen to love making ribs (more on this in a minute). I love the whole process, from taking the membrane off to the soak to the rub to the cook and of course eventually to a plate.
Ribs are an undeniable hassle, a bit high maintenance if you’re a 3-2-1 guy like me, so I get it if you want your day clear. But I’d do ribs.
If you’re looking for something else, I mean, this might sound a little unimaginative but you absolutely cannot go wrong with a huge platter of glorious nachos.
You’re a barbecue guy, so maybe even throw on some pulled pork or get some brisket*.
* I know people here don’t like it when I saw this, but Texas does brisket better than we do. If I were you, living there, I mean, you live your own life but I’d buy the brisket.
And now I’m hungry for brisket.
Six first round picks?
Eight?
You’re right, this would never happen, but what if the Chargers offered Justin Herbert, Derwin James, four firsts and some beach?
What if the Texans offered Deshaun Watson and four firsts?
What if the Jaguars offered their next five first round picks, starting with this year’s 1-1 that you could use on Trevor Lawrence?
I’m going no, no, no, no, and no, but it’s fun to think about.
What if FC Barcelona offered Lionel Messi and the Sagrada Familia?
Anyway.
I’d never experienced this before, but have you ever heard someone describe something you do that you never realized you did, but as soon as you heard the description you knew EXACTLY what they were talking about?
I felt seen.
I mean, look. Some of this is a bit like being asked to describe how you run. You probably don’t think about it, right? You just run.
But I do understand what they’re seeing. My default setting is pretty laid-back, and over the years I’ve been able to channel the adrenaline of deadline writing into more focus than nerves.
I like to be comfortable when I write, so if my feet aren’t up — they’re literally up right now as I’m typing these words — then I’m definitely slouched in a chair. I don’t often go anxious, or freakout about a deadline, preferring to just know how much time I have and what I want to say and make the best of it.
So I think what those guys are seeing is probably obnoxious — calm, almost sleepy body language, words coming out in more of a steady flow than bursts of inspiration interrupted by writer’s block.
But that view is at least a partial lie.
We were talking a few answers up about the ways doing this for a living changes the way you watch sports, and you may have heard me say once or twice before that I don’t think I’m good enough to both root for a team and be good at providing you insight or connections to that team.
Well, somewhat similarly, I’m not good enough to waste time or energy freaking out about a blank screen.
I gotta get to typing.
I can’t pretend to know exactly what this is referencing, but if it’s a joke, I have slight regret in not understanding.
This question is included for one reason. This is a plea from me to you to use your attention wisely, and if you give your attention to an unapologetic blowhard like Skip Bayless then please only do it as a way to laugh at him.
I know the writerly thing to do is to ask that you not indulge people like that, because even negative energy is their oxygen, but I also understand human nature. Sometimes we need a good laugh.
Just, please. Don’t allow yourself to be fooled into believing someone like that knows as much as they’ve trained themselves to act like they know.
Skip Bayless and people like him are the whoopee cushion of media. Fart noises are objectively funny, so they’re not entirely useless. But nobody wants a conversation with a whoopee cushion.
First, let me say that I am proud for my friend Jake. He’s following his heart and his inspiration, pushing himself to discomfort, and wanting to share the experience with others. Can’t wait to see the book.
Second, there is no way I could ever lock myself in the woods for a month. My kids would forget about me, my wife would leave me, and I love my dog but that’s not how I want to spend the rest of my life.
But I would like to do a book.
This football team might make for a worthy topic sometime?
Mark, I’m not picking on you with this. I have nothing but love. You’ve been supportive for as long as I can remember, and I appreciate you. I’m including this because it’s representative of the modern fan experience, and something I’ve been thinking about a lot lately.
In virtually every way, there has never been a better time to be a sports fan. We have more games on TV, with more cameras, better picture, more angles, and an unfathomable level of information and endless access to people we agree with or don’t to talk about it all.
But all that information also means we can usually find whatever we’re looking for, which often means we have distorted perspectives.
And the same way Patrick Mahomes can be perhaps America’s most popular athlete but still find slights, fans can cheer for the consensus and wire-to-wire best team in the league and still find doubters.
But this is also true: at least as of Monday afternoon, if you Google Super Bowl predictions the first result is a link with 10 of 12 ESPN writers picking the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are a 3 1/2-point favorite, which is the first time Tom Brady’s team has been a Super Bowl underdog since his first — nine Super Bowls and 19 seasons ago.
The Chiefs are the most popular show in the NFL, which means they are the most popular show in America.
The Chiefs are plenty loved.
The Bucs are a good team. They have a top five defense by Football Outsiders’ catch-all DVOA metric, a loaded skill position group, and the most accomplished quarterback in the sport’s history. Bruce Arians is a two-time coach of the year, defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is a former head coach, and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich is a future head coach.
I’m not telling you the Bucs have a better offense than the Chiefs, because they don’t, but I will tell you they scored more points than the Chiefs this season.
Nobody should be shocked if the Bucs beat the Chiefs on Sunday.
Now, about that ...
I believe the Chiefs will win.
I believe they will win because I believe Reid, Bieniemy, and Andy Heck will figure out a way for the offensive line to be at least OK.
I believe they will win because Brady, while a legend, has lost some zip on his passes and can be beat with pressure, even if you have to blitz to do it.
I believe they will win because I watched the first game, and believe the score was closer than reality and believe in Reid’s ability to beat a team twice, particularly with an extra week to prepare.
I believe they will win because for all the talk about Mahomes and Brady, the Chiefs’ defense has played (by far) its best three-game stretch of the season (throwing out week 17).
I believe that particularly if we see Playoff Frank Clark the Chiefs will produce enough pressure and guys like Breeland, Mathieu and Thornhill will make plays on the back.
I believe they will win because in 20 years, we’re going to look back on prime Tyreek Hill and prime Travis Kelce as one of the best pass-catching partnerships of all-time — perhaps the best.
Also, I believe they will win because they employ Patrick Mahomes.
I’m thinking 27-23, something like that.
But I won’t be shocked if the Bucs win, and neither should you.
This week, I’m particularly grateful for these ribs I made over the weekend. They may have been the slowest cooked ribs in Kansas City history. Something like three months ago, I decided to make ribs, but wasn’t smart enough to check the next day’s weather, which was a biblical rainstorm. I tried to power through, but about halfway through I needed to add some coals or something and between the rain and I think the water pan spilling, well, the fire went out.
So I vacuum sealed the ribs, and the other day decided to resurrect them. I’m not going to lie to you. They were not great. But they weren’t terrible, either, and certainly better than Famous Dave’s and those grifters actually charge money. So I consider that a win, especially since I was able to use some rubs and sauce that an unnecessarily nice reader sent.
This story was originally published February 2, 2021 at 5:00 AM.